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The supply lines have been left somewhat abstract, but there's not much alternative to that when the conflicts only actually happen when you're close enough for them to be in the active simulation area around the player. There's no easy way to remotely account for the capabilities of your provisioner otherwise, when they could be anything from a naked, unarmed settler that goes down from a shot or two up to a heavily-armoured deathbot that can tear through squad after squad of attackers and hardly even slows down.
I agree that raiders should generally be more willing to attack caravans, but having that happen when you're not around would get messy, so currently you just see them when you happen to be around and can get involved.
I think the idea of a radiant quest to respond to rumours of an attack being planned on your supply lines could be interesting in its own right, though it could also end up as another source of endless annoyance, since raiders respawn and you can never really keep the way clear.
You could probably fudge that by pairing lists associated with the settlements for provisioner's source and destination, but to actually have an attack happen out on the road, you've then got the problem of where to spawn everything, since the game normally handles that with preset spawn points.
Speaking of Spectacle Island, for the benefit of those playing survival mode who want to get a suit of power armor to the island, it's a long walk under water. This last time I found a pipe line heading back to the mainland. I didn't follow it back to its source, but it must be on the mainland somewhere near that fort Garvey wants you to take over for the Minutemen.
To be honest none of it makes sense. Given how hostile the Wasteland is, neither Settlers nor Provisioners should survive. They should all be dead long before you arrive. Or behind 20' steel fences at least. Both Settlements and supply lines imply a Wasteland that's bordering on harmless.
More realistic would be a large caravan once a month, armed to the tits, everyone grouping together for mutual defence. And then that would attract Raiders like a magnet.
I also don't see how it's possible to conduct trade with DC, and how DC would be viable without trade. Ditto Bunker Hill. Merchants would have a 50% chance of surviving each trip alive, and a 75% chance of keeping their goods. If they were tough enough to survive the trip with negligible risk, they wouldn't need to trade for a living, they could just conquer the settlements and extort all their money and goods.
IDK.
I don't usually get the ability to create supply lines until around level 30, because I start with a low charisma, and augment it with items--so I can afford to buy stuff. I have also discovered that the water economy is not the best. Adhesives are much lighter than water and more valuable pound for pound. So after I use all the adhesive I need I start selling the rest. Ditto for corn and mutfruit, but not tatoes. Tatoes weigh 5 times as much as corn and mutfruit, but are just as cheap. So supply lines aren't very important to me until I get to Spectacle Island.
That's where I build my end of the game fortress/resort. With an indoor swimming pool on the first floor, and large lasers and missile launchers lining the third floor, and the top floor reserved for my favorite squeeze and me. with a high dive allowing about a 40 foot dive. It takes around 1,000 units of concrete and most of a thousand units of steel. and a bunch of other stuff. When I hit around level 40 and get my science perk peaked, I get that enormously nice to have hundred kilowatt fusion reactor. It's not cheap or easy to get it going, but it's very satisfying to trash all those old, noisy generators--which apparently run on corn alcohol.
The only time i played with more than one settlement, i made a sentry bot the supply runner. In a normal game that will then bug out (shocker!) and reverts your bot to something like a protectron if i remember correctly. I had to install a mod to fix it, and never had any other issues. Playing on survival as well.
You'll sometimes be lurking in the night and see explosions, turns out to be the sentry bot killing whoever gets in his way and then moving on with his trusty pack brahmin. I was playing with the Institute, everything was to be made in a superior, flawless fashion. The Sentry was all white and serviced regularly, never allowed to become self aware. Goodbye Shaun, sniff.
But I've more notably heard provisioner bots fighting in the game where I dedicated myself to building a robot army. Over six hundred olive-green assaultrons with miniguns for arms assigned as provisioners to every possible settlement connection. They roam the wasteland, regularly unloading dakka on whatever they meet (dramatic battles being why they have miniguns), and it's rare for me to go anywhere in that game without seeing one in battle.