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Having caged enemies increases the chance of being attack by that particular faction.
If you have super mutants in a settlement then there is a chance that supermutants will attack, same for raiders and gunners. I don't know if this INCREASES the chance of being attacked, or just stacks the chance on WHO gets to attack you.
I don't know how you can even do it. I have attacks happening on 300+ settlements so I feel like its backwards(whats the point of defenses if they can't even spook off a few drugged up raiders).
If you want your defenses to matter check out a mod called War for the commonwealth. Turns the commonwealth into a......war....zone, okay walked into that one. But still, with roaming bands of ghouls and deathclaws your settlements won't get by with just some turrets. It won't increase frequency of attacks but every time you spawn in you can usually bet there is a big band of <insert danger here> right behind you, forcing you to take cover in the nearby settlement.
Although, you MIGHT want to keep it on a low setting if this is a new game. Getting chased by a deathclaw when all you have is a tire iron and a 10mm can be a bit frustrating, or that is what your looking for at which point have at it.
But bandits and others will randomly attack even your defence is higher than resources, just less often
It is separate from raid attacks. Keeping them in the cage is what has the chance of them attacking. In other words if you catch something and then leave it in the cage you increase the odds of being attacked. If you release it then the chance to be attacked goes away (unless bugged.)
Well you can get a few different mods (Mortal Settlers, Sim Settlement Conquest) that make settlers mortal, as in anything can kill them. So not only will the settlement defenses matter, but the gear the settlers have matters as well.
Sim Settlements Conquest allows you have other settlements prebuilt according to city plans. Then you can play as a raider gang and attack the other settlements. With the mortal settings you can literally fail an attack because all your raiders die. For those thinking settlement walls dont make a difference have never attacked a walled in settlement, lol.
You also have the Settlement Ambush Kit in Creation Club that is great for spawning waves of mobs to attack your settlement. It even has security cameras to defend a settlement "in person" and use the actual built defenses instead of the game just running statistical wins. This is because the camera fakes you being there.