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This post, I can readily agree with.
The minutemen are going to break apart if the leadership turns weak after the SS dies or leaves. They have to have good leadership to keep things going right, as well as work with the settlers. (they are pretty much well liked mercs at first, then become the government and that can turn them into despots easily enough)
Probably, but the Minutemen are nothing more than rent-a-cops basically.
A truly "good" ending would have been strengenthing the MinuteMen to provide military leverage while bringing together various settlements including Diamond City under a new CommonWealth Provisional Government. Then turning your sights onto the Brotherhood, Railroad, and Institute; giving the them the option to "sit at the table" and come to a peaceful arangement or wipe them off the face of the Commonwealth if they refuse. The new CPG would provide the stability and guidance that the MinuteMen need (as they are not a governing body, but really a roaming militia) and the Minutemen would slowly transition from a rent-a-cop militia to the new military of the newly formed Commonwealth Republic.
RailRoad are too single goal centric. And goal that does not even include wellbeing of people in commonwealth in first place.
Institute is on verge of civil war no matter if you will or will not be its leader. Not only many heads of various operations are so disgruntled with decisions from Father that they are willing to share them publicaly with you on your first meeting (and much more through freely lying holotapes), they have tendencies to abuse and in some cases outright bully synths they made.
Those same synths which they know that can go rogue. Imagine synth going rogue inside institute becoming secret saboteur. Modyfiyng other synths secretly to also revolt and then... voila civil war.
And as Virgil proved, even institute scientist may go rogue.
Along with their willingness to kill people and replace them with synths willy nilly, it could be easily possible that already there is secret coup by some scientists on the way with them slowly replacing uncooperative scientists with synths.
So to sum it up, institute seems to be too unstable in long term to bring benefits to commonwealth.
Which leaves BoS and MM. And while MM is better option then RR or IN, they already failed in past so easily that there is no guarantee that it will not happen again.
I mean honestly, without player character to deal with preston, half of minuteman forces would commit suicide from his constant "another settlement needs you help".
Now that I think about it, that may very well be the reason why minutemens fell apart!!!
When other leaders heard that Preston is going to participate in defense of that town, they rather flushed entire MM movement into toilet than to hear even single more Preston request.
Which leaves BoS.
Faction with indoctrinaition of their forces towards common goal. Pragmatic enough to not be stoped by morals. But still humane enough to not be considered monsters.
Paladin Danse is great example of that
Also they have great deal of experience in how to resolve even most critical conflict within their own ranks. Case where other faction would fall apart in civil war ended with BoS only in splitting their forces without any bloodshed (Fallout Tactics). Even in F3 where there was agresive split, those factions of BoS did not attack each other and both continued working in their own way towards their goal.
They also have lot of experience with actually conquering and holding which no other faction can claim. MM do not conquer, they only negotiate and are more of service then actual force with own agenda.
So in light of this, I would say that BoS is best option for future of commonwealth. Not because they would be any good. I mean they would bring lots of misery to commonwealth. They would use them to further their own goals. But BoS is only faction that has proved that they can actualy controll entire area of commonwealth, that they would work to make that place better (at least no supermutants or feral ghouls which would be great improvement) and that they will not fall apart by themselve.
The minutemen and the Brotherhood are both noble but savages in comparison. For me the best ending was the institute one.
All it would take is single synth that works in one lab to become rogue and slowly subverting other synths.
Or worse, one rogue scientist replacing his colegues one by one with synths secretly loyal to him.
If Paladin Danse could go undetected, then replacing scientists would be quite possible.
Of course it would sooner or later got out what is happening and civil war would ensue.
Also there is that other problem, civil war aside, that IN so far has no intention to actualy do anything for commonwealth outside of murdering its population and replacing them with synths.
There is that blank possibility that with you in leadership you can make them do anything.
But that has about as much value as saying that with siding with BoS or MM you can go to Mechanic lair and produce army of robots that would serve commonwealth in same capacity that synths could do without replacing human population (defenders, farmers, guards etc. just no brainbots. )
Also where is your guarantee that by siding with IN, there are no secret standing orders to switch you for synth at first moment you let your guard down?
Anyways, The Commonwealth already tried that once before. And it all ended in bloodshed and all representitives dead. The Commonwealth claims the Institute sent a synth representitive that killed everyone, The Institute claimed no one could agree on anything so they all shot eachother. Ether way, What you're suggesting likely wont happen. And it's safer for both the Commonwealth and MM if they remained on Militia level.
Actually it wouldn't be that hard. Depending on the timeline of the NCPG formation a military attack on the BoS would work since Liberty Prime wasn't constructed until the end-game. Additionally the BoS was extremely taxed and pushed to it's limit to rush their way to Boston. The Prydwen has coolant issues, the troops lack supplies, many have been run ragged, and they have a relatively small contingent. While they have some superior fire-power, there's sub-factions within the Commonwealth that would provide numbers and technology. Not to mention since we're using the SS in this example, much of the BoS's victory is because of the SS in the game, Liberty Prime would be far behind schedule and the Prydwen and BoS would be hampered without the SS's help in establishing supplies and coolant.
The BoS relied heavily on their inital shock & awe of the Prydwen to deter an attack on them, but if you managed to maintain a blockade on their resource gathering they'd start to struggle. They pushed themselves too hard and spread themselves too thin to get to the Commonwealth, it's only by the help of the SS & being relatively unopposed once they arrived that even allowed them to get a foothold. Not to mention the Prydwen is a very fragile ship compartively; it's greatest strength is it's mobility, but the fact that it's also the BoS's forward operating base makes it a huge weakness for the BoS.
The CPG did fall due to in-fighting and bickering, it's also entirely possible the Institute either sabotaged the situation (though it seems more like they would benefit from the CPG more than it's failure) or they had another prototype synth that went loco. The point is that IF a new CPG was formed it'd be under the leadership/guidance of the SS and the enforcement/protection of the MinuteMen (it's not made clear if the MM were part of the original CPG, unlikely as they seem more of a rent-a-cop militia helping settlers than nation builders).
Additionally while the Gunners are more of a Raider group, they do have some level of doctrine and could probably be enticed with financial and political benefits as they essentially serve as a lawless mercenary group for the most part in the Commonwealth. There's also the Atomic Cats who could be leveraged as well for their knowledge. There's plenty of smaller groups within the Commonwealth that if brought under the fold of a common government could easily push back against both the BoS and Institute without needing either faction at the CPG table so to speak.
It's not entirely far fetched. The SS would of course be the short-term lynch pin of the whole thing; but eventually once a proper government and military is established it could survive quite well.