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To cause more attacks, simply have your defense lower than your resource count.
Regardless of how happy or defended is your settlement, the minimum chance of attack in a settlement is 2% per day. The chance increases the more resources (water, food) you have and decreases the more defenses you have.
Also, having trapped creatures (with Wasteland Workshop cages) not only heavily increases the chance of an attack but can also force the attack group to be of the same species of the creatures you have trapped.
Also, there is a mechanic in the engine take randomly decides if you win or lose an attack when you are away from the settlement being attacked. If the engine decides you won the attack, everything will be normal, but if you lose, random items you previously built there will be chosen by the engine to be damaged during the attack and you'll have to repair them as soon as you get back. That includes power generators, water purifiers, scrapping stations and turrets.
So I'm anxious to see how attacks will unfold before I build up too much more.
If you do not care for aesthetics or lore, do it practical: do not surround your settlement with wallsm (because walls are essentially useless for defense purposes), and point your defenses directly to the spawn points, and put some some defenses close to the middle, so you can dispatch any random attacker spawning inside.
Such as raiders having the 2nd lowest rate next to a feral ghoul attack.
There's no 0% chance of a settlement attack, here's how it works:
Each settler you have lowers this by an additional 0.5% to a minimum of 2% attack chance
Each unit of food and water further increases the chance of an attack by an additional 0.2%
The final formula goes a little like this, according to behind the scenes values by certain tools and the creation kit:
Increasing Modifier - Lowering Modifier (to a minimum of 2%) + the amount of consumables you have in the workshop, so there's a fair chance of an attack.
That means if you have a lot of purified water in your workshop, such as 200 of them, there's a fixed 22% chance regardless of defenses.
Only question I have to figure out for myself is will i need one or two. Depends how large i make my town and the range on my turrets.
That doesn't always mean that your settlement is missing anything, It's just that the pip-boy can't retain values for all the settlements very well, but it can effect attacks too.
Or do they just attack any thing near their spawn?
Attackers will simply target settlers and turrets (and the player, if you are around, of course), and also try to steal equipment you have stored in containers and are within reach, as well as any power armor lying around.
Ok, so good loot will go in my towers. Lol
Exactly. If you store precious loot, such as legendaries, in containers, put them in places that NPCs can not easily reach, so you can prevent both settlers and attackers from stealing your stuff. Yes, settlers can als sniff around your containers to get better equipment if they are attacked and their current gear is weak enough.
In the past, I've mumped and moaned about settlement defences being useless...if the player doesn't turn up to help out. Turns out I was talking utter kerrap.
During this play through I've had 2-3 messages pop up, informing me that settlement whatever had successfully defended itself. All my settlements have missile turrets, which may have been a factor. Settlers also have high grade weapons, although I'm not sure how the game scripts could factor that in as a calculation, during a battle where the player is not present. When the player IS present, high end weapons used by settlers do seem to have an effect. That's not based upon anything substantive; it's just an impression.
Anyway, just admitting I was completely wrong.
The frequency of the attacks seems much lower than in previous play throughs. Picking up on Light's point, I now keep my resources at a minimum in settlements that are populated (and thus subject to potential attacks) Whether the attacks are now less frequent I can't say for sure. That's my impression though.
As for spawn points, I think it was casual sailor who said something about spawn points and time taken to attend the scene. I always respond whenever I notice the message. Enemies now seem to appear at the perimiter of any, given settlement. In this play through I've yet to see enemies spawn in the core, settlement areas. In other games, I've seen them spawn next to a fast travel point if I was slow to respond.
EDIT: That, And having to plan my settlements around possible attacks rather than what worked best for npc naviagation and aesthetic bothered me.