HeadHunter calculations - effective headshot chance gained.

[turtle225]

EDIT: Updated 8/25/22 - Updated numbers in the table to be a bit more precise. They were slightly undervalued before.

EDIT: Updated 8/13/20 as per Blazing Deserts rework. Comments below the OP may have outdated information.

I couldn't find this data anywhere so I decided to do it myself.

I wrote a short Python script that runs one million rolls with HeadHunter logic and then takes the mean headshot chance.

Base Headshot Chance.	Mean Headshot With HH.	Effective Headshot Increase.
25%	40%	15%
30%	46.15%	16.15%
35%	51.85%	16.85%
40%	57.14%	17.14%
45%	62.07%	17.07%
50%	66.67%	16.67%

Base chances by weapon:

25% -- Base chance for most weapons.
30% -- Base Jester, most 2-tile Reach weapons, 2H Swords.
35% -- Base Killer on the Run, 1H Flails.
40% -- 2H Flails, Jester/Killer with other weapon bonuses, Famed items.
45% -- Jester/Killer with other weapon bonuses, Famed items.
50% -- Killer with 2H Flail, Famed items.

HH value increases slightly as your base headshot chance increases, making it more enticing on weapons that have higher headshot chances.

[Abel]

Interesting, good job! Now we have numbers for HH and FA (link). More or less the same conclusions.

Too bad critical hits as a whole are unreliable (armor and Steel Brow).

[suejak]

Very cool! I like these threads.

HH value is lower the higher your base headshot chance is ... I wanted to point this out because it isn't uncommon for people to suggest you use HH with already high headshot chances as if they synergize when really they don't.

I see both statements made quite a bit, and I increasingly disagree with the normative statement that "they don't synergize." I actually feel like you've given stronger evidence to the other side of that argument.

First, I think the core logic of the "non-synergy" point is a bit self-evident: it's a static increase on a base, so of course the static increase will be a smaller percentage of the whole if you increase the base. I don't think that inherently means it's less valuable, although I understand the logic that "smaller number means less value."

The point of a theoretical HH build IMO is that it consistently targets the head as much of the time as possible. To that end, any source of extra headshot chance ("headchance") is desirable because the build is heavily about headchance. Moreover, 8% is still a massive number from a probability perspective. If you had proved that the benefit was more like 1%, then that would truly call into question the value of the perk.

Meanwhile, low base headchance builds don't necessarily want additional headchance at all, because (as you know) you risk splitting damage.

So "how much headchance" you get from the perk is not the main way in which its value should be measured, but rather "whether the build needs or will benefit from headchance" in the first place.

To summarize, bumping up headchance is binary: either it's desirable for a build or it's not. A bit of headchance increase (even 15%) is not necessarily good for many builds (due to damage spread etc.), so that could still mean that the increase is actually bad. On the other hand, even less headchance increase (even 8%) is not necessarily "non-synergistic" for HH builds, because those builds are primarily about headchance and don't care if they're benefiting 8% or 15%, just gimme the damn headchance.

***

So what is a headchance build? That's the real question, of course. As I've said, I think the strongest arguments are for heavy one-off pierce weapons like 2h mace. In this case, +15% is literally more valuable than +8%, but I'd still take HH on a killer on the run with a named 2h mace that has boosted headchance because this guy wants to hit the head whenever possible. He wants to be rendering orcs invalid with one shot wherever possible. Basically every headshot is a blessing for this guy. So +8% would be fantastic!

By the same logic, I don't see why HH xbow isn't good (esp. with mastery, perhaps even a named xbow for some encounters). I like to use goblin xbows vs. chosen and although I feel like somebody's argued against it at some point, I don't see why massive pierce to the head is ever a bad thing for these fights. (Also might fit in nicely if you're taking HH for throwers anyway - more on that at the end.)

Another type of argument IMO can be made for any build that hits the head more often than the body, which is hard to achieve. But if a character has attained 45-50 headchance already, he'll only be more consistent by packing in as much additional headchance as possible. You want this guy to be as likely as possible to hit the head so as to minimize divided damage, so you'd rather be at 58 than at 50. You want to use him, tactically, as though he's likely to hit the head. I know some people hate this idea, but I think an axe duelist makes plenty of sense for this. Again, we're talking tactical choices mid-battle ("I'm going to send my headchance guy after this fella with the weakened headgear"), not laboratory-conditions 1v1 from full health.

Now the one exception -- one that's mentioned recently and probably motivated this post in the first place -- is probably generic throwers. This one is a bit more general and not really "a headchance build," so in this case I think it makes sense to consider 15% vs. 8% in the context of other perks you might choose. You're looking for generic value on a generic damage bro, which is not usually what you're doing with HH builds.

[turtle225]

Good points overall. I agree with most of it.

I guess what I was trying to say is that HH is less relatively gainful the higher your base chance is. So from the perspective of a generic damage perk it is less useful with higher base. But your point about maximizing your head chance for specific builds makes sense, regardless of your base.

But even so, the way I see it is that even on the few builds that enjoy hitting the head I would still rather take Berserk, Frenzy, and Executioner before taking HH. Out of all of the damage perks HH is the least valuable due to its inconsistent nature and the boost not affecting Armor or Brow.

I do use HH on some builds, but never before maxing out on the other damage perks because I think they are better, even on a headshot oriented build.