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"Buying" ehp with heavier armor costs 1 fatigue for 7 (i.e. 43 fatigue for 300/300). If you include the benefit of BF, it's more like 1:8.5.
"Buying" ehp with nimble + colossus hp level ups costs 1 fatigue for 3.1. Pre-nerf nimble was 5, then 3.75. If you have no stars, because of the way the dice work, the ratio can go as high as 6.25 and as low as 1.5.
Running anything less the heaviest armor mostly made no sense for BF bros because their ratio (1:8.5) is so attractive. To your point, nimble bros have a much less attractive ratio (particularly on bad die rolls) and need to think harder about the trade-offs between more fatigue vs. more hp.
I think the point about nimble bros trading hp for fatigue is well made, but I think it also just goes to demonstrate that the perk has gone back to being a very niche build long term. You're comparing the survivability of a wildman with 2 stars in hp and tough vs. the survivability of essentially any generic BF bro.
I point that out not to criticize your analysis, but just to observe that such a character is pretty rare.
There are also a lot of comparisons to 2h-hammers and heavy crossbows, which are going to make nimble look good but:
1) 2-h hammers are rare
2) Spiked impalers are carried by goblins, which are a super bad match up for nimble bros because every other goblin has a weapon with ~70% armor effectiveness
So that's all to say that I think this is great analysis that shows if you ARE going to go nimble, you should think hard about putting more points into fatigue rather than maximizing hp. Particularly on certain die rolls.
I still think the choice to go nimble in the first place is niche. Those thief builds won't look so good when you plug them into the wildman comparison, particularly if you add some rows for goblin weapons and orc cleavers (or add 5 turns of miasma damage)...
However, nimble characters will be pretty good mid-game and at least get some benefit late game (extra fatigue and damage), so maybe that is enough. If you make them, put some points into fatigue.
And I share Benjamin's conclusion. I think that's a good summary of where Nimble stands now.