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The randomness factor is simply a fact of the game. All stats are subject to up to ±50% variance when they are being compared, so unless you are vastly more powerful than the opposition there is always a chance something might go wrong - the wider the gap, the smaller the chance, of course.
Seasoned players with an optimized team will never lose, despite the RNG. In fact, they'll likely not even take a single goal, with the right strategy. The only time I ever get scored on is the occasional bad luck during the first Luca match. In free play, I have not had enemies score against me in a literal decade.
Of course, that's with an optimized team. The whole recruitment system is part of the game, and as such there should be no surprise that who you pick to play has considerable influence on your performance. The less optimal players you use, the harder it will become to remain successful. Playing skill can substitute for a lot, but at some point there's just raw stats involved.
Maybe you want to consider getting some other players? There's plenty of very good players available right from the start.
Tidus is fine, and gets the Jecht shot. Get some other players, level up and play! I wouldn't worry too much about having the best team possible an stuff unless that's really what you want, it gets a bit boring for me to always win every game easily so personally I'd rather the opposition had some threatening players haha!
2 recomendations I'd make are Zev Ronso and Jamal, both can be hired in Luca and are good to start with - Zev is very versitile as a mid but can be a forward, Jumal is a necessary upgrade from Keepa.
As for stategy... there isn't much to it. The default formation will be fine pretty much always, though you can play around with it if you wish to make things more interesting - but a simple tactic can be to pass the ball around and try to create an opening for a forward (draw the defender out) then pass to them for a free shot on goal. Make sure you have manual movement (ie. you control their movement) to do this ofc.
Im still using Keepa in my playthrough. With a few levels and the Super Goalie ability, he becomes useable, allthough its rare for a team to get a decent shot on goal when Im playing
Another good player to recruit early is Zalitz by the Luca sphere theater, very good defender for early on but stalls a bit later. A good tactic is to pass around a bit until you can get Tidus in some space, then get him as close to goal as possible. From here just use Jecht shot and you should score every time, doesn't matter if you get 2-3 defenders on you because you can normally break through one and use Jecht shot to clear the other 2.
You can also redo the Jecht Shot challenge on the same ship you were on the first time.
That dude's guide is ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥, hahaha...
LF- Tidus (come with him, free of charge)
1. Wither Shot 1/2/3
2. Wither Tackle 1/2/3
3. Pile Wither
4. Jecht Shot 1/2
5. Golden Arm
MF- Linna (Macalania Temple Frozen Road, 600 gil a game, pick her up when visiting temple for the first time or you will have to defeat Dark Shiva before you can recruit)
1. Wither Shot 1/2
2. Wither Tackle 1/2/3
3. Pile Wither
4. Tackle Slip 1/2
5. Golden Arm
RF- Wakka (only if you are using Keppa, easiest team to make) (1 gil per game found in airship)
-Same as Tidus just replace Jecht Shot with AUROCH'S SPIRIT
RF- Vilucha (If you don't want to use Wakka or Keppa, harder team to make) (found in Besaid, have to defeat dark Valefor to recruit her)
-Same as Linna
LD- Ropp (Mi'ihen Highroad, Travel Agency)
1. Wither Tackle 1/2/3
2. Pile Wither
3. Brawler
4. Elite Defense
5. Pass (hopefully a wither) 1/2/3
RD- Kiyuri (S.S. Winno, Deck- have to take a boat trip and then find her mid trip)
-Same as Ropp
GL- Keppa (only if you are using Wakka or pre lv 69-99, easiest team to make) (comes with team)
*Keppa eventually gets a 99 to shot, the highest in game, which feeds AUROCH'S SPIRIT
1. Grip Gloves
2. Super Goalie
3. Anti Nap 1/2
4. Anti Wither 1/2
GL- Wedge (post lv 69-99, harder team to make) (Found as a guard at Luca Stadium, Main Gate)
-Same as keppa
Every single one of those people is a free agent which means you can recruit them all from the start and never have to change your team once, it will be the best team possible levels 1-99.
XP isn't the biggest issue, it's learning "key techs". You can get yourself into a bind if you don't learn them early and other teams stop using the techs you need to learn. Make sure you learn all key techs BEFORE hitting lv 10-20, if you failed then reset all teams, recruit your team again and start over.
Also, don't fall into the "brother trap" who is almost broken levels 1-30... He will fall behind levels 30-60 and become obsolete 60-99 as his stats (other than spd) are beyond worthless...
http://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=883656149