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'total defeat' is a predictor, not the result. If you win the next 4 days in a row you can still do it.
Also bear in mind ground CZ on foot count towards win/lose for the day. If a few commanders are doing ground fights for the side opposing you that will make it hard for you to win.
Ok, glad to hear that. "total" sounds final. It would be nice to have a breakdown of CZ action and ground action to help a cmdr decide where to go.
They all count as points for the day. Winning a ground CZ more often than losing it over the course of the entire war means that your side gets to keep that settlement. But winning there each day counteracts 1 space battle.
So if you win 4 space CZ and lose 1, and the other side wins 4 ground CZ, they win that day.
I would say that ground CZ are probably faster than space ones, although I think it's close. Having more people in your group would be a bigger effect, so you can always ask people to come fight for your side. (Of course, this being the internet, if you announce your system publicly you'll get people who come and fight against you just because.)
What counts is value of bonds. Threat level 3 surface conflicts, they are very profitable and difficult yet one cmdr can easily win them resulting in 6-8 millions cr of bonds! That sum equals doing... 7-9 low intensity space CZ which of course will take more time.
The BGS guide mentions Bonds counted for the earlier incarnation, but this changed with chapter four of ED/BGS which is a few years ago now.
According to the recent 2024 edition of the BGS guide (which incorporates those changes):
"Each day is won by the side that won the key lever of most CZs and objectives completed. If there is a tie breaker – i.e., both sides have won the same number of CZs, then all combat related activities that have been handed in are tallied up, and a winner for the day is declared."