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So, here's the rules of thumb I've been working with:
(1) The absolute minimum number of charges that will commonly bust a Core rock open is Two. They will most likely be set inside of two Low Strength fissures, and you'll have to overcharge them.
(2) Using more than four or five charges will give the same results as in #1, but chances are you'll be adding Low Strength charges to push the indicator into the Blue.
(3) "Low Yield Forecast" doesn't always impact the actual yield. The absolute Best Case scenario for a Core rock is more than 16 tons (I've seen up to 20 tons from one rock); anything under 12 is the result of the explosion destroying the highest value fragments which are pushed out and around the chunks of rock, not the high value Surface deposits on the inside of the rock.
In short, then -- stacking too many charges or using too many High charges will likely start to destroy the fragments, and that's what the indicator is warning you about.
You can also get the same result by "under-charging" a rock, by setting the charges at too low power. Then, the explosion doesn't bust the Core (perhaps a fragment or two will be spit out) but you'll be able to bust the Core with only a single charge afterwards, and the indicator will warn you that the yield forecast will be bad.... but it won't actually be. Count the tons you get, and use that as your metric.
o7 and happy busting, Commander!
It turns out that getting 12-14 chunks instead of 15+ is what triggers the "not optimal" msg.
cheers
In my experience, there are usually as many Surface deposits as fragments blown out of the rock (perhaps 11-12 of each) and that's why I know there's potentially 16-20 tons in total.
Totally aside -- Subsurface deposits are also super sensitive to explosives going off around them, so be careful when launching displacement missiles near fragments which are floating nearby. And, the best case scenario for a Laser rock (66.7% Platinum in a Metallic ring) is also an average of about 20 tons.
Good fortunes, potato hunter o7
TIL - jesus i've been getting this wrong for years, i've always put low charge on low strength, high charge on high strength.