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Stations in outbreak will pay good for medicines. Famine good for foodstuff. War/civil war good for weapons. Etc.
To really take advantage of it, you either want to be in a remote location or be prepared to go as soon as the state changes, because otherwise everyone who watches the trade databases will soon learn there is profit to be made doing certain runs and will trade like crazy and kill the profit margins.
I typically do a trade loop inside eddb. I go for the highest profit margin which is usually slaves. I go out there and just keep buying and selling slaves about 15 LYs away.
These 3-4k per ton profit commoditites seem the most efficient way to increase liquidity.
There is no RNG wrt state changes. States are determined by player actions(or lack of) and/or influence values which are also affected by player actions. The timer on states may have an RNG element.
Commodity prices are affected by state, player trading, controlling faction type, economy type, system wealth/population and probably a few algorithms which may or may not have a little RNG.
Yes, every player be it in open, private or solo affects the background simulation.
No, when playing solo, all other commanders turn into ghosts for you.
Mining is nearly pointless until you can afford T6/AspX, follow the guides.