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The in-game difficulty scale isn't a bad starting point. The easiest villains are probably Baron Blade and Ambuscade, and the easiest environment in the base set is Insula Primalis. And obvious though it might be, having a balance of damage/healing/tanking among team members makes a big difference -- plus the ability to reliably destroy ongoing and environment cards, and/or manipulate decks in general.
I find that a good guide (for me and my group) is: 0%-20% is nearly impossible, 20%-40% is extremely difficult, 40%-70% is very hard, 70%-90% is challenging, 90%-100% is good for learning the game.
Sometimes specific interractions between as little as a single card from a pair of decks can synergise or clash in such a way as to throw the chances of the game /way/ off, but these cases are fairly rare.
I was recommending powerhound_2000's link (I was unable to post it myself for some reason). But both links should give similar results.
My hypothesis would be that it comes out this way because people who would attempt a Challenge variant would be more likely to already be skilled players. The data this page is working off of doesn't have any way of comparing different selections at the same player skill level, so it could very well be creating a situation where something that's harder but is generally played more by skillful players reads as easier.
I'm not sure any way around that, except to only draw comparisons between different sessions of each individual player, which would then result in much lower sample sizes, making the results even less dependable.
Not that people can't still give you tips based on specific setups, mind. It's just kind of got to be done on a case-by-case basis.
Don't be afraid of anything. Try things and don't worry to much about things going "wrong."
Don't worry about hit points too much or losing characters. Sometimes it actually makes what was an unwinnable scenario winnable.
And if you do lose don't worry to much about that either, it's all part of the game and learning to play.
Reminds me of that time incapacitated Extreme PW Fanatic let Nightmist deal 60 damage to Progeny with one Oblivion. I wouldn't have won that game otherwise.
But on topic, the way I really learned to play the game was to start unlocking all the variants. It does teach you to pay attention to how decks work and how to counter/stall villains to buy yourself time. If you have to do something complicated with a hero, it also teaches you to learn the deck and find out how their cards interact with others.
My recommendation would be to start changing things slowly; take an easy villain (as others said, Ambuscade and Baron Blade are both good choices), find a team of low-medium complexity heroes and do several games until you're comfortable with all decks. Then start switching out one or two heroes at a time or the villain, to get to know other decks. That way you can concentrate on learning a new deck without getting completely overwhelmed by new stuff.