This game will sell 6 millions at best

[Jem]

AC Shadow will sell as much as Star War Outlaws, so not enough.

It will maybe break even in the best case scenario. But 0 profit.

For the record, i predicted that DA The Veilguard would sell 1million-1.5millions copies, based on Steam players numbers.

Will it be sufficient to keep Ubisoft afloat ?

[&rew]

Some of the most expensive video games ever made would be profitable selling 3 million. If this game sells 6 million copies, that's still exceptional.

[㉑ Matt]

It doesn't matter how bad or good this game is, it's an Assassin's Creed game so it will sell enough no matter what. Now, if you are asking if this game can SAVE Ubisoft? Probably not.

[Jem]

Originally posted by &rew:

Some of the most expensive video games ever made would be profitable selling 3 million. If this game sells 6 million copies, that's still exceptional.

3 millions is not enough. 60-70 % of the sells happen during the 2 first months after release.
The game cost 300 millions + 100 millions in marketing. Ubisoft has the highest labor workforce in the video game industry (20.000 employees to pay each month).

[&rew]

Originally posted by Jem:

Nope, 3 millions is not enough. 60-70 % of the sells happen during the 2 first months after release.
The game cost 300 millions + 100 millions in marketing. Ubisoft has the highest labor workforce in the video game industry (20.000 employees to pay each month).

Ubisoft also uses those employees to put out multiple games per year rather than one studio working on one game for 5-6 years and hoping to make their money back. I don't know how you got $300M. Valhalla allegedly only cost less than $150M to make, including marketing, for a lot of those same efficiencies in development I just mentioned.

Also, even though the bulk of copies are sold in the first few months, that doesn't mean that it sells zero copies after that in its "long tail". I'm sure this game will make its money back before then too, but it will also likely have a very strong long tail. And remember this is the $70 era. $10 more per copy sold. The threshold to make one's money back on a $70 game is far lower than a $60 game.

[Ele]

No, this isn’t just about a game anymore, it’s about regaining investor trust. To achieve that, they needed a massive success like Black Myth: Wukong, not a result that’s barely a third of Veilguard’s numbers.

[㉑ Matt]

Originally posted by Jem:

Nope, 3 millions is not enough. 60-70 % of the sells happen during the 2 first months after release.
The game cost 300 millions + 100 millions in marketing. Ubisoft has the highest labor workforce in the video game industry (20.000 employees to pay each month).

I don't think it will sell that low, I think you're underestimating Assassin's Creed name value. It's one of the BIG franchises. Valhalla had already made over 1 billion dollars by the beginning of 2022 and sold over 20 million copies.

This game will most likely not have the same numbers due to Yasuke controversy, but from what I've seen it seems to be a better game than Valhalla, so it shouldn't sell only 3 million.

I prefer the old Assassin's Creeds, but AC continues to be a valuable name that the most casual gamer buy it without caring about Internet opinions.

[Jem]

Originally posted by ㉑ Matt:

Originally posted by Jem:

Nope, 3 millions is not enough. 60-70 % of the sells happen during the 2 first months after release.
The game cost 300 millions + 100 millions in marketing. Ubisoft has the highest labor workforce in the video game industry (20.000 employees to pay each month).

I don't think it will sell that low, I think you're underestimating Assassin's Creed name value. It's one of the BIG franchises. Valhalla had already made over 1 billion dollars by the beginning of 2022 and sold over 20 million copies.

This game will most likely not have the same numbers due to Yasuke controversy, but from what I've seen it seems to be a better game than Valhalla, so it shouldn't sell only 3 million.

I prefer the old Assassin's Creeds, but AC continues to be a valuable name that the most casual gamer buy it without caring about Internet opinions.

I don't know about that, because i think this franchise/style of gameplay suffers from a long term and rampant fatigue (10 years at least).

And i think Valhalla sold well because Ubisoft customers like vikings (Skyrim for example).

I don't know if they like the Japan Ubisoft produced this time. Plus there were much less controversies during Valhalla release.

Originally posted by &rew:

Ubisoft also uses those employees to put out multiple games per year rather than one studio working on one game for 5-6 years and hoping to make their money back.

Yep, and they lose money on multiples projects these past years.

I don't know how you got $300M. Valhalla allegedly only cost less than $150M to make, including marketing, for a lot of those same efficiencies in development I just mentioned.

The budget for Odyssey was 500 millions. One of their last game Skulls and bones cost more. I'm cautious here.

Also, even though the bulk of copies are sold in the first few months, that doesn't mean that it sells zero copies after that in its "long tail". I'm sure this game will make its money back before then too, but it will also likely have a very strong long tail. And remember this is the $70 era. $10 more per copy sold. The threshold to make one's money back on a $70 game is far lower than a $60 game.

You don't understand finance: one dollar/euro/whatever tomorrow isn't worth one dollar/euro/whatever today.

And if Ubisoft is to be bankrupt/sold this year ou next year, the copies in 2027 and after don't matter in this regard.

[Seifer]

6 gorillion at least

[Xarko]

Pretty optimistic. Let's hope they sell 600k first.

[Serge Lynx]

3million would be if every person at most bought expensive version. Prob only 10% or so would buy that. To break remotely even they would have to sell for basic edition 20 million copies across all platforms. As of my comment I’ve seen only reports of over a million sold in first 24 hours. Numbers not looking so great so far.

[HappyCamperBubbleBelow]

If this game sells 6 million copies(sales not players) in a year
I will buy the first 3 people that comment in this thread in the next 24 hours a full priced normal edition steam game one year from now.
Goes to the first 3 people that message me actual link to evidence of 6+ million sales 365 days from now.

Link both your post in this thread and the evidence... I dont want to go hunting myself to check you are valid winner. Not that I think it will happen... why im happy to do this, but will put my money where my mouth is if im wrong.

[Inline-8]

Good. Let them burn

[Weird, weird...]

Originally posted by &rew:

Some of the most expensive video games ever made would be profitable selling 3 million. If this game sells 6 million copies, that's still exceptional.

That's the biggest "let's just make a random fact" fact I've ever seen lol...

Explain to me how a game that would cost (for example) 500m to make would only need to sell 3m copies? Like, are the copies sold 200$ each?

[Adriael]

300 mil budget plus marketing <rap music intensifies>

[Rain]

It will never sell that many copies simply because it is better financial sense to spend a third of the price at 18 dollars on Ubisoft+

Ubisoft+ subscription effectively kills their business model.