Predict the day one peak concurrent on steam

[AdahnGorion]

Prediction Contest

In this thread we will predict, we will try to predict the day one peak of Assassin's Creed Shadows. This thread is meant to be a fun wait for the games actual release tomorrow.

Rules:

Make a specific guess (ie. 219,302)
Be friendly towards others and their guess
Prediction ends when the game release
We will use steams on data (and steamdb) to find the concurrent.

My guess

I personally think the game will do best on console, but its a very popular IP so it will still sell on PC and steam. It will most lkely be better than games such as Veilguard, but not as good as SF. So my guess will be 166,205 concurrent players.

Remember you are allowed to give a little information about your guess (you don´t have to, but this can sometimes be fun) remember these are merely predictions and we all just guess, I´ve tried being spot on, but also far below and far above in my gussings on other games... its all part of the fun.


What are you guesses? Have a wonderful day

[Codian]

I did this exact post and it got deleted. Gg
On topic though… veilguard did 75k, more people know about ac so I’ll double that to 150k

[AdahnGorion]

Originally posted by Codian:

I did this exact post and it got deleted. Gg
On topic though… veilguard did 75k, more people know about ac so I’ll double that to 150k

Thank you for the prediction.
I´ve made prediction threads for most of the large AAA games here on steam without issue. Its supposed to be fun and positive.

[Ryuudou]

As a baseline the Top 5 Assassin's Creed games by peak Steam numbers (according to SteamDB):

5. AC III - 15,007
4. Valhalla - 15,679 (most recent, best selling)
3. Black Flag - 16,049
2. Origins - 41,551
1. Odyssey - 62,069

AC is a console series and most players are on PS5/Xbox and Ubi+ (cheaper), so anything among the top 5 previous AC games is great.

[Q]

500k

[AdahnGorion]

Originally posted by Ryuudou:

As a baseline the Top 5 Assassin's Creed games by peak Steam numbers (according to SteamDB):

5. AC III - 15,007
4. Valhalla - 15.679 (most recent, best selling)
3. Black Flag - 16,049
2. Origins - 41,551
1. Odyssey - 62,069

AC is a console series and most players are on PS5/Xbox and Ubi+ (cheaper), so anything among the top 5 previous AC games is great.

Its important to note, that most of the modern ones did not release on steam at launch day.
So its not really a good baseline to use. Like with Veilguard (that was the first DA game in a long while to launch on steam first day) its going to set the standard, not change it.

Valhalla was ie. a EGS exclusive and EGS paid 1/4 the revenue earned by that game. This meant that nobody really bought it on steam before it came on sale (a year after release, it was exclusive for 6 months)


But thank you for the post. Are you going to make a prediction on day one peak?

[AdahnGorion]

Originally posted by Q:

500k

Thank you for that predicton. It will be interesting to see if it really could go up towards the best of the best like you predict.

[Ryuudou]

Originally posted by smoketrees:

Originally posted by Ryuudou:

As a baseline the Top 5 Assassin's Creed games by peak Steam numbers (according to SteamDB):

5. AC III - 15,007
4. Valhalla - 15.679 (most recent, best selling)
3. Black Flag - 16,049
2. Origins - 41,551
1. Odyssey - 62,069

AC is a console series and most players are on PS5/Xbox and Ubi+ (cheaper), so anything among the top 5 previous AC games is great.

Might be mistaken but I don't believe they've been steam day one until now. Will probably get quite a few more.

Originally posted by AdahnGorion:

Originally posted by Ryuudou:

As a baseline the Top 5 Assassin's Creed games by peak Steam numbers (according to SteamDB):

5. AC III - 15,007
4. Valhalla - 15.679 (most recent, best selling)
3. Black Flag - 16,049
2. Origins - 41,551
1. Odyssey - 62,069

AC is a console series and most players are on PS5/Xbox and Ubi+ (cheaper), so anything among the top 5 previous AC games is great.

Its important to note, that most of the modern ones did not release on steam at launch day.

Doesn't matter. The vast majority of AC players are console players, and Shadows is split between six stores (PS5 Store, Xbox Store, Ubisoft Store, Epic Store, Mac App Store, and Steam store), and Shadows was also added to Steam pretty late.

[AdahnGorion]

Originally posted by Ryuudou:

Originally posted by smoketrees:

Might be mistaken but I don't believe they've been steam day one until now. Will probably get quite a few more.

Originally posted by AdahnGorion:

Its important to note, that most of the modern ones did not release on steam at launch day.

Doesn't matter. The vast majority of AC players are console players, and Shadows is split between six stores (PS5 Store, Xbox Store, Ubisoft Store, Epic Store, Mac App Store, and Steam store), and Shadows was also added to Steam pretty late.

Steam make up for 90% of PC sales when games are not exclusive to another platform.
Most PC sales will be here. We only have access to steams numbers in public (the others don´t disclose numbers) and we are debating on steam, thus why we will use steam as a metric.

Its not about if the game is selling well or not.. this thread is about having fun predicting the steam numbers. Nobody disagree with you about AC series being a mainstream console game... it is.. have been seen the secound game (the first was more PC centric, believe it or not)

[ParasiteX]

My guess no more than 30K peak.

EDIT: I expect it to do pretty poorly on Steam. based on the fact their Steam hub follower count is really low when compared to recent woke titles like Avowed and Failguard.

[Ryuudou]

Originally posted by AdahnGorion:

Originally posted by Ryuudou:

Doesn't matter. The vast majority of AC players are console players, and Shadows is split between six stores (PS5 Store, Xbox Store, Ubisoft Store, Epic Store, Mac App Store, and Steam store), and Shadows was also added to Steam pretty late.

Steam make up for 90% of PC sales

Not for AC. AC is not a Steam series. It is more popular on Ubi store due to the price.

[ParasiteX]

Originally posted by Ryuudou:

Originally posted by AdahnGorion:

Steam make up for 90% of PC sales

Not for AC. AC is not a Steam series. It is more popular on Ubi store due to the price.

Barely anyone uses the Ubi store.... Why do you think Ubislop put their games back on Steam?

[katzenkrimis]

I won't give a number because it's impossible to predict.

Assassin's Creed hasn't released on Steam for years. It's not its home base.

Creed's home base is the entire planet. Deep within every crack and crevice imaginable. This game has its tentacles wrapped around the universe. In fact, it annoys Mother Nature. That's how hefty this behemoth it is.

Expect low numbers.

Then you can expect the unknowledgeable ones to start blasting it for having lower numbers than Veilguard. The usual suspects. The half-wits and dolts.

None of this matters when the sales numbers are calculated at the end of the year.

I'll be laughing my ___ off.

The jealousy and failed prediction excuses will be entertaining.

[ParasiteX]

And i would guess a huge reason why AC series has seen stronger sales on consoles, is because they stopped putting them on Steam and their failure at getting people to install their ♥♥♥♥♥♥ store.

[AdahnGorion]

Originally posted by Ryuudou:

Originally posted by AdahnGorion:

Steam make up for 90% of PC sales

Not for AC. AC is not a Steam series. It is more popular on Ubi store due to the price.

AC:S sales on PC will be 90% on steam... the reason it did not sell much on steam, was that it was first on their own platform exlusively and then on EGS.. But even Ubisoft understands, that Steam is the largets platform and had to go here... look at investor calls for more information.

Anyway. will you give out a number? this thread is for fun prediction, I would prefer it was keept that way.

[AdahnGorion]

Originally posted by katzenkrimis:

I won't give a number because it's impossible to predict.

Assassin's Creed hasn't released on Steam for years. It's not its home base.

Creed's home base is the entire planet. Deep within every crack and crevice imaginable. This game has its tentacles wrapped around the universe. In fact, it annoys Mother Nature. That's how hefty this behemoth it is.

Expect low numbers.

Then you can expect the unknowledgeable ones to start blasting it for having lower numbers than Veilguard. The usual suspects. The half-wits and dolts.

None of this matters when the sales numbers are calculated at the end of the year.

I'll be laughing my ___ off.

The jealousy and failed prediction excuses will be entertaining.

Why not give it a go with a prediction? its just for fun?