So Ubisoft sold on 1 million players congratz

[Master Blaster]

I mean its nothing to sneeze at, however the development costs are estimated to be about 350 million, 1 million players means they have to sell 7,783,673 units. So depending on if people were given keys or get in on Ubisoft+ the results could varry, Heres the breakdown.

To estimate how many units of Assassin’s Creed Shadows Ubisoft would need to sell to break even on the game’s development costs, we’ll need to make some reasonable assumptions based on the information provided in the X posts and related web results, as well as industry standards. Let’s break it down step by step:
1. Estimated Development Costs
The web results indicate that Assassin’s Creed Shadows has an estimated production budget of $250 million to $350 million.

Additionally, Ubisoft’s CEO, Yves Guillemot, confirmed an extra €20 million (approximately $21.5 million USD, using an exchange rate of €1 = $1.075 as of March 2025) in development costs due to delays, pushing the total potential cost toward the higher end of the range.

For simplicity, let’s use the midpoint of the estimated range ($300 million) plus the additional $21.5 million, resulting in a total estimated development cost of $321.5 million. This is a conservative estimate, but it accounts for the reported figures.

2. Additional Costs to Consider
Development costs are just one part of the equation. Ubisoft also incurs marketing costs, which can be substantial for a AAA title like Assassin’s Creed Shadows. Industry estimates suggest marketing budgets for major games can range from 20% to 50% of development costs, or $60 million to $150 million for a game of this scale.

Let’s assume a conservative marketing budget of $60 million, bringing the total cost to break even to $381.5 million.

Other costs, like distribution, platform fees (e.g., Steam, PlayStation, Xbox take a 30% cut), and physical production (if applicable), could further increase the total, but we’ll focus on development and marketing for this estimate.

3. Revenue Per Unit Sold
The price of Assassin’s Creed Shadows varies by edition and platform. The standard edition is typically priced at around $70 for new-gen consoles (PS5, Xbox Series X|S) and PC, according to the Ubisoft Store.

However, Ubisoft also offers the game through Ubisoft+, a subscription service, and other platforms like Steam and Epic Games Store, which might affect revenue per unit. Additionally, platform holders (e.g., Sony, Microsoft, Valve) take a 30% cut of digital sales, leaving Ubisoft with $49 per unit after fees for digital sales.

For physical copies, the net revenue might be slightly higher (e.g., $55–$60 per unit after retailer cuts), but digital sales dominate the industry, so we’ll use $49 per unit as a conservative average.

4. Break-Even Calculation
To break even, Ubisoft needs to generate $381.5 million in revenue.

Dividing the total cost by the revenue per unit:
Units needed=Total costRevenue per unit=381,500,00049≈ 7,783,673 units


Now I am not taking credit for this, thanks to AI doing these equations is much much easier and yes you can check the info it is correct, ever since they added GROK to twitter finding so much information is easy and most arguments can be settled with logic. Of course trolls will still be trolls but this is actual information.

Now my personal take? I don't think they are gonna break even, if in the first week you don't see it hitting the 6 million mark from the amount they have now so 7 million total I don't think the investors will be happy, its probably not enough to satisfy the investors unless they reach that minimum. And I know people will jump back and say things like "OH AI isn't reliable thats not an argument...thats not facts!" ....get real, AI depending on the module being used...I know Python is pretty popular...anyway AI can gather and compile data and information in a much larger capacity than a human, but if you want to dismiss this information as invalid go ahead, you'll experience first hand the reality of the situation one month from now anyway.

[magicdeezle]

Ursprungligen skrivet av starkmaddness:

Ursprungligen skrivet av Master Blaster:

They need sales, they have to show something tangible to the investors.

They need sales or NEW subscriptions to Ubisoft+. And like you said, several million of them, yet they only got 1 mil players, likely a majority on existing subs. Unless this weekend is a magical flurry of sales, Ubisoft is cooked.

3 million btw

[magicdeezle]

Ursprungligen skrivet av Rei:

You probably would've saved a lot more time with this post when you actually read to understand that it was "players" and not "sales". Thanks for laugh though. Your post is absolutely the quintessential representation of the current state of the game.

3 million lol

[magicdeezle]

Ursprungligen skrivet av Zodwraith:

Internal email within Ubisoft trying to downplay this by saying PC sales are "only 27%". Even if you were generous and said of the 65k max we've seen that a 3rd of people who bought it didn't play this weekend and Steam saw 100k in sales, there's no way more people bought it on the ubisoft launcher everyone hates.

So if you're really generous and say 1/3 of players bought it on the launcher so there's 150k in PC sales, that's still well under 600k in sales across all platforms, but Ubisoft just announced 2 million "players." They are GROSSLY exaggerating 3.5x to make this disaster look like it's not that bad.

When development costs are estimated at $250-350m, and you pretend Steam, Sony, and MS don't take their cut, $250m/70 is still 3.5 million to break even with the most generous imaginary estimates. Now when you DO account for more realistic numbers they've most likely only moved around 550k units when they need to cover a middling $300m, and $300m/$50 means they need 6 million in sales. Just to BREAK EVEN.

With how quickly sales fall off within the first weeks of a game's release this is looking to be an unmitigated disaster that may only see 3 million in sales max. This is likely the final nail in the Ubisoft coffin with the string of failures preceding it.

Sad to say I don't even feel bad about it with what they've been shoveling the last few years.

Best launch in AC history btw and still growing lol

[s]

If kamala harris told her voters to buy ac shadows to own elon they could reach 75 million sales.

[MonkehMaster]

Ursprungligen skrivet av s:

If kamala harris told her voters to buy ac shadows to own elon they could reach 75 million sales.

as if the dem party even has 1/4 of that, left in their party