So Ubisoft sold on 1 million players congratz

[Master Blaster]

I mean its nothing to sneeze at, however the development costs are estimated to be about 350 million, 1 million players means they have to sell 7,783,673 units. So depending on if people were given keys or get in on Ubisoft+ the results could varry, Heres the breakdown.

To estimate how many units of Assassin’s Creed Shadows Ubisoft would need to sell to break even on the game’s development costs, we’ll need to make some reasonable assumptions based on the information provided in the X posts and related web results, as well as industry standards. Let’s break it down step by step:
1. Estimated Development Costs
The web results indicate that Assassin’s Creed Shadows has an estimated production budget of $250 million to $350 million.

Additionally, Ubisoft’s CEO, Yves Guillemot, confirmed an extra €20 million (approximately $21.5 million USD, using an exchange rate of €1 = $1.075 as of March 2025) in development costs due to delays, pushing the total potential cost toward the higher end of the range.

For simplicity, let’s use the midpoint of the estimated range ($300 million) plus the additional $21.5 million, resulting in a total estimated development cost of $321.5 million. This is a conservative estimate, but it accounts for the reported figures.

2. Additional Costs to Consider
Development costs are just one part of the equation. Ubisoft also incurs marketing costs, which can be substantial for a AAA title like Assassin’s Creed Shadows. Industry estimates suggest marketing budgets for major games can range from 20% to 50% of development costs, or $60 million to $150 million for a game of this scale.

Let’s assume a conservative marketing budget of $60 million, bringing the total cost to break even to $381.5 million.

Other costs, like distribution, platform fees (e.g., Steam, PlayStation, Xbox take a 30% cut), and physical production (if applicable), could further increase the total, but we’ll focus on development and marketing for this estimate.

3. Revenue Per Unit Sold
The price of Assassin’s Creed Shadows varies by edition and platform. The standard edition is typically priced at around $70 for new-gen consoles (PS5, Xbox Series X|S) and PC, according to the Ubisoft Store.

However, Ubisoft also offers the game through Ubisoft+, a subscription service, and other platforms like Steam and Epic Games Store, which might affect revenue per unit. Additionally, platform holders (e.g., Sony, Microsoft, Valve) take a 30% cut of digital sales, leaving Ubisoft with $49 per unit after fees for digital sales.

For physical copies, the net revenue might be slightly higher (e.g., $55–$60 per unit after retailer cuts), but digital sales dominate the industry, so we’ll use $49 per unit as a conservative average.

4. Break-Even Calculation
To break even, Ubisoft needs to generate $381.5 million in revenue.

Dividing the total cost by the revenue per unit:
Units needed=Total costRevenue per unit=381,500,00049≈ 7,783,673 units


Now I am not taking credit for this, thanks to AI doing these equations is much much easier and yes you can check the info it is correct, ever since they added GROK to twitter finding so much information is easy and most arguments can be settled with logic. Of course trolls will still be trolls but this is actual information.

Now my personal take? I don't think they are gonna break even, if in the first week you don't see it hitting the 6 million mark from the amount they have now so 7 million total I don't think the investors will be happy, its probably not enough to satisfy the investors unless they reach that minimum. And I know people will jump back and say things like "OH AI isn't reliable thats not an argument...thats not facts!" ....get real, AI depending on the module being used...I know Python is pretty popular...anyway AI can gather and compile data and information in a much larger capacity than a human, but if you want to dismiss this information as invalid go ahead, you'll experience first hand the reality of the situation one month from now anyway.

[MonkehMaster]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Bͥatͣmͫan:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Rune:

1 million players does not equal 1 million sold.

The game needs to sell something crazy like 8-9 million copies to break even.

easy work!

if it was easy work, the game would have sold more than enough on day 1 to make profit, yet here we are... and seeing non owners spam the forums claiming the game is magically doing great.

despite numbers and facts proving otherwise.

fake fans arent doing the company any favors, you are only hurting the company.

[Rune]

They've recovered less than 10% of cost.

There's simply no sugar coating how dire this is for Ubisoft. It's worse than Veilguard. Perhaps significantly so.

I shorted Ubisoft yesterday.

[MonkehMaster]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Orge Lambart:

people trying to cheer on Ubisoft's demise because they dared to put a black man as the lead character... oh the horror.. give me a break.. same people who hated GTA San Andreas because Carl was a black dude and used the excuse, but it's not the mafia... as if GTA was about the Mafia, sure you took some jobs from the Mafia but the game wasn't about the Mafia..

I wouldn't even wise for Ubisoft to struggle, I mean their games rock, now if only I could figure how how to start this game, it's confusing my simple mind..

what you on about....

gta San Andreas is about gangs and Mafia, lying isn't helping your cause.

anywho, kinda telling when you can't "start" the game...

[MonkehMaster]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Orge Lambart:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Resolute:

Small correction :

Steam takes a tiered cut, so in Ubisofts case, its around 20% of the sales.

Epic is 12%

Most other stores as well as physical copies are 30%

Pretty sure the bigger developers get deeper cuts, I think they go as low as 15% with big AAA studios who sell lots of games.

wrong, the steam cut is determined by sales, not the size of the company, seen one man indies sell more games than some of these "big" companies

[xixonix]

The game cost $350-$400 million to make including development, delays, and marketing according to released data so far. At $70 and assuming everyone who ever bought the game only got the standard edition, that would mean approx. 5.7 million sales (actually 7.6 million taking the 30% cut each platform takes Ubisoft lists the game on into account) needed to "break even". But we already know some people will buy micro-transactions or the deluxe edition so it will be lower.

So the real question is, is the game good enough to reach that many sales even with the blowback? Assuming Ubisoft is correct and it has over 1 million sales so far I would say it has a pretty decent shot at getting there until other, better games come out. Next week Khazan comes out, then Last of Us Part 2 on PC, Tides of Annihilation, Lies of P: Overture, Doom: The Dark Ages, Stellar Blade on PC, Elden Ring: Nightreign, Death Standing 2, and Lost Soul Aside (just to name a few).

So it will be very hard. This year is packed with anticipated games and no one will be thinking of Shadows when they arrive. So this game really has a week to make most of its sales. Maybe a month tops before the games start rolling in. I think it will take longer than 6+ months for this game to make its money back and, sadly, Ubisoft doesn't have that much time with all the legal battles and ♥♥♥♥ going on right now.

[Encoder]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von H.U.N.K:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Orge Lambart:

people trying to cheer on Ubisoft's demise because they dared to put a black man as the lead character... oh the horror.. give me a break.. same people who hated GTA San Andreas because Carl was a black dude and used the excuse, but it's not the mafia... as if GTA was about the Mafia, sure you took some jobs from the Mafia but the game wasn't about the Mafia..

I wouldn't even wise for Ubisoft to struggle, I mean their games rock, now if only I could figure how how to start this game, it's confusing my simple mind..

I'l try and be as nice as possible by not roasting you for your complete lack of awareness but first off GTASA was a hit game and secondly Ubisoft already has games with black assasins creed protagonists Aveline de Grandpre and Adawale both games were well recived and nobody cared they were black as one was set during the slave trade and the other was in Louisiana both characters were well writen back when ubisoft had talented writers not talentless DEI hacks and both characters made sense in the world they were in.

Where as Yasuke is a Joke a DEI insert with tublr level writing and is a total insult to anyone with half a brain.

There is exactly nothing about the game that is at all like DEI. Yasuke is in the game because there is historical evidence that he existed as a warrior back then.

https://www.britannica.com/biography/Yasuke

[MonkehMaster]

no dei? there absolutely is, do better lol.

[Encoder]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von MonkehMaster:

no dei? there absolutely is, do better lol.

Nope, there is exactly nothing in the game that is supposed to be DEI.
You anti woke trolls don't even care about the game itself but the fact that it doesn't fit into your sick world view that there was a black warrior in Japan back then that was even historically proven and documented lmfao.

[Drake Ravenwolf]

How many of those "1 million PLAYERS" actually bought the game?

[Encoder]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von SHINPAKU:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Encoder:

There is exactly nothing about the game that is at all like DEI. Yasuke is in the game because there is historical evidence that he existed as a warrior back then.

https://www.britannica.com/biography/Yasuke

I'll give you kudos for calling him a warrior and not a Samurai. He'd most likely be closer to a highly rewarded Ashigaru. Some Ashigaru do eventually reach close to Samurai class, but they're not really the same as Samurai. Samurai is closer to a lineage-based warrior-aristocracy.

A samurai is a warrior if you are not familiar with the term and there is no evidence to the contrary.

[Jackie Paper]

stop using chatgpt for discussion post please

[MonkehMaster]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Encoder:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von MonkehMaster:

no dei? there absolutely is, do better lol.

Nope, there is exactly nothing in the game that is supposed to be DEI.
You anti woke trolls don't even care about the game itself but the fact that it doesn't fit into your sick world view that there was a black warrior in Japan back then that was even historically proven and documented lmfao.

sorry, denial doesn't make your statements true.

facts speak and they point to dei and a failed narrative, that went beyond reach and became extremism.

anywho, ya know... "play silly games, win silly prizes".

[Encoder]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von SHINPAKU:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Encoder:

Nope, there is exactly nothing in the game that is supposed to be DEI.
You anti woke trolls don't even care about the game itself but the fact that it doesn't fit into your sick world view that there was a black warrior in Japan back then that was even historically proven and documented lmfao.

You're an idiot. No one is saying Yasuke wasn't there. We're saying that calling him Samurai is incorrect. He would be a well-rewarded Ashigaru, which are usually peasant-class that were conscripted into their Lord's army and /could/ hold great amounts of power through loyalty and service. It's offensive to take an African like Yasuke and blast Hip Hop music for his introductions. It's offensive to turn an African into an African American in culture. Those are two vastly different groups. Especially a 16th century African.

Again samurai is a warrior if you are not familiar with the term and there is no evidence that he was not a samurai. Things like Hip Hop music or African American in culture fall under artistic freedom. There is nothing offensive about that.

[Encoder]

Ursprünglich geschrieben von SHINPAKU:

Ursprünglich geschrieben von Encoder:

A samurai is a warrior if you are not familiar with the term and there is no evidence to the contrary.

The Samurai were a house-based ruling class for much of Japanese history, ever since they overthrew the Japanese Emperor and Dowager Emperors in Pre-Heian eras. Much of that was between the Minamoto and the Taira,

You are uneducated and out of your depth. You clearly haven't read the Heike Monogatari or the Gikeiki on Yoshitsune. This is basic Japanese history anyone familiar with Japan would know, and clearly cements the power struggle between the Samurai and their status as warlord rulers of these regions.

They were fiercely protective of their lineages and would have executed Yasuke as an interloper instead of just deporting him back into Slavery as they did if he was considered Samurai at Honnoji. The same as they would execute me or you for doing the same thing. It's not because he's black, it's because he isn't Japanese aristocracy.

Your rant is a steaming pile of historical illiteracy and cherry-picked elitist gatekeeping.

“Samurai were ONLY aristocracy!” — ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥. By the Sengoku period (you know, when Yasuke actually existed?), meritocracy exploded because warlords like Oda Nobunaga DIDN’T GIVE A DAMN about your precious “lineages” if you could fight. Toyotomi Hideyoshi, a peasant, rose to rule Japan. But I guess your “basic history” skipped that part?

“They’d execute Yasuke!” — Oh really? Then why was he SPARED after Honno-ji and handed to Jesuits, not slaughtered? Because Nobunaga’s enemies saw him as a non-threat, not a “fake samurai.” Your fantasy about “executing interlopers” is pure fanfiction. The Tokugawa shogunate later executed Christians en masse, but Yasuke? Deported. Not killed.

“Read the Heike Monogatari!” — LOL. Citing 12th-century texts to argue about 16th-century social norms? That’s like using Beowulf to debate modern British politics. The Sengoku era OVERTURNED old rules. Samurai status was GRANTED BY LORDS, not DNA. Nobunaga gave Yasuke a sword, a title, and a stipend. That’s LITERALLY what made someone a samurai.

“No proof he was samurai!” — There’s NO PROOF HE WASN’T. Contemporary accounts (Luís Fróis, Alessandro Valignano) note Nobunaga admired him and gave him status. But sure, ignore primary sources because they wreck your racist “aristocracy only” fairytale.

“Not Japanese aristocracy!” — Neither was William Adams, the Englishman made samurai by Tokugawa Ieyasu. But I guess white Europeans get a pass in your weirdo worldview?

[RicardIII]

Looking at the numbers, it's an average-selling game.
For the record, the all-time highest (ATH) player count on Steam:

Origins (2017): 41,551
Odyssey (2018): 62,069
Valhalla (2022): 15,679
Mirage (2024): 7,870
Shadows (2025): 47,616

So, for now, it's performing better than Origins at its peak but is still far from Odyssey (which was kino AF). If it really cost them a lot to develop, the outlook might not be great.