So Ubisoft sold on 1 million players congratz

[Master Blaster]

I mean its nothing to sneeze at, however the development costs are estimated to be about 350 million, 1 million players means they have to sell 7,783,673 units. So depending on if people were given keys or get in on Ubisoft+ the results could varry, Heres the breakdown.

To estimate how many units of Assassin’s Creed Shadows Ubisoft would need to sell to break even on the game’s development costs, we’ll need to make some reasonable assumptions based on the information provided in the X posts and related web results, as well as industry standards. Let’s break it down step by step:
1. Estimated Development Costs
The web results indicate that Assassin’s Creed Shadows has an estimated production budget of $250 million to $350 million.

Additionally, Ubisoft’s CEO, Yves Guillemot, confirmed an extra €20 million (approximately $21.5 million USD, using an exchange rate of €1 = $1.075 as of March 2025) in development costs due to delays, pushing the total potential cost toward the higher end of the range.

For simplicity, let’s use the midpoint of the estimated range ($300 million) plus the additional $21.5 million, resulting in a total estimated development cost of $321.5 million. This is a conservative estimate, but it accounts for the reported figures.

2. Additional Costs to Consider
Development costs are just one part of the equation. Ubisoft also incurs marketing costs, which can be substantial for a AAA title like Assassin’s Creed Shadows. Industry estimates suggest marketing budgets for major games can range from 20% to 50% of development costs, or $60 million to $150 million for a game of this scale.

Let’s assume a conservative marketing budget of $60 million, bringing the total cost to break even to $381.5 million.

Other costs, like distribution, platform fees (e.g., Steam, PlayStation, Xbox take a 30% cut), and physical production (if applicable), could further increase the total, but we’ll focus on development and marketing for this estimate.

3. Revenue Per Unit Sold
The price of Assassin’s Creed Shadows varies by edition and platform. The standard edition is typically priced at around $70 for new-gen consoles (PS5, Xbox Series X|S) and PC, according to the Ubisoft Store.

However, Ubisoft also offers the game through Ubisoft+, a subscription service, and other platforms like Steam and Epic Games Store, which might affect revenue per unit. Additionally, platform holders (e.g., Sony, Microsoft, Valve) take a 30% cut of digital sales, leaving Ubisoft with $49 per unit after fees for digital sales.

For physical copies, the net revenue might be slightly higher (e.g., $55–$60 per unit after retailer cuts), but digital sales dominate the industry, so we’ll use $49 per unit as a conservative average.

4. Break-Even Calculation
To break even, Ubisoft needs to generate $381.5 million in revenue.

Dividing the total cost by the revenue per unit:
Units needed=Total costRevenue per unit=381,500,00049≈ 7,783,673 units


Now I am not taking credit for this, thanks to AI doing these equations is much much easier and yes you can check the info it is correct, ever since they added GROK to twitter finding so much information is easy and most arguments can be settled with logic. Of course trolls will still be trolls but this is actual information.

Now my personal take? I don't think they are gonna break even, if in the first week you don't see it hitting the 6 million mark from the amount they have now so 7 million total I don't think the investors will be happy, its probably not enough to satisfy the investors unless they reach that minimum. And I know people will jump back and say things like "OH AI isn't reliable thats not an argument...thats not facts!" ....get real, AI depending on the module being used...I know Python is pretty popular...anyway AI can gather and compile data and information in a much larger capacity than a human, but if you want to dismiss this information as invalid go ahead, you'll experience first hand the reality of the situation one month from now anyway.

[6480]

1 million players, not sales. They have a subscription service.

[Master Blaster]

Originally posted by 6480:

1 million players, not sales. They have a subscription service.

They need sales, they have to show something tangible to the investors.

[DragonBane]

Ubisoft have given away thousands of free keys to inflate the player count. There are X screenshots of them giving away keys.

[Master Blaster]

Originally posted by DragonBane:

Ubisoft have given away thousands of free keys to inflate the player count. There are X screenshots of them giving away keys.

Dunno about the amount but I did see that on twitter, my friend managed to snag one

[M͂͒̀λgi͡caℓ Ήo͓̽ﻇo̴]

They already got there money from black rock/vanguard

[starkmaddness]

Originally posted by Master Blaster:

Originally posted by 6480:

1 million players, not sales. They have a subscription service.

They need sales, they have to show something tangible to the investors.

They need sales or NEW subscriptions to Ubisoft+. And like you said, several million of them, yet they only got 1 mil players, likely a majority on existing subs. Unless this weekend is a magical flurry of sales, Ubisoft is cooked.

[Master Blaster]

Originally posted by starkmaddness:

Originally posted by Master Blaster:

They need sales, they have to show something tangible to the investors.

They need sales or NEW subscriptions to Ubisoft+. And like you said, several million of them, yet they only got 1 mil players, likely a majority on existing subs. Unless this weekend is a magical flurry of sales, Ubisoft is cooked.

Yeah I think they will have about a week to see improvements otherwise it will probably be worse for them.

[Resolute]

Small correction :

Steam takes a tiered cut, so in Ubisofts case, its around 20% of the sales.

Epic is 12%

Most other stores as well as physical copies are 30%

[SalzStange]

That's wrong. Ubisoft just confirmed that they only reach 1 million players on day one, including the free ones from ubisoft+

Steam playerpeak was 41,5k
(Successful multiplatform aaa games have 1 million or more at the same time)

This is an absolute desaster for ubisoft.

It's only rank 4 in playstation store... on release day!

[Orge Lambart]

people trying to cheer on Ubisoft's demise because they dared to put a black man as the lead character... oh the horror.. give me a break.. same people who hated GTA San Andreas because Carl was a black dude and used the excuse, but it's not the mafia... as if GTA was about the Mafia, sure you took some jobs from the Mafia but the game wasn't about the Mafia..

I wouldn't even wise for Ubisoft to struggle, I mean their games rock, now if only I could figure how how to start this game, it's confusing my simple mind..

[Master Blaster]

I mean really I think the big issue is the pricing, if they swallow the loss, cut it at...maybe 30-35% they would be able to recoup some of the money that was invested, even that amount is better than nothing, because yeah your right, the first 24 hrs to a game launch is critical, you get your hardcore crowd then, the ones that were waiting for the release and the content creators/streamers.....however after that your dealing with stragglers, so people not keen about spending hard earned money.

[Orge Lambart]

Originally posted by Resolute:

Small correction :

Steam takes a tiered cut, so in Ubisofts case, its around 20% of the sales.

Epic is 12%

Most other stores as well as physical copies are 30%

Pretty sure the bigger developers get deeper cuts, I think they go as low as 15% with big AAA studios who sell lots of games.

[Master Blaster]

Originally posted by Orge Lambart:

Originally posted by Resolute:

Small correction :

Steam takes a tiered cut, so in Ubisofts case, its around 20% of the sales.

Epic is 12%

Most other stores as well as physical copies are 30%

Pretty sure the bigger developers get deeper cuts, I think they go as low as 15% with big AAA studios who sell lots of games.

I think steam offers some discount though, if you sell a certain amount? Or is that only for smaller studios?

[starkmaddness]

The thing is, Ubisoft needs to do far more than recoup some/most of their money. Shareholders are already calling for it to be sold due to their recent flops. They need this game to be a homerun, not a desperate slide into 1st base.

[NerV]

Also they had a promotion over like 3 months that if you buy a new Intel CPU you got a free copy on Ubisoft connect. That is how I got my copy, no way I would have bought it, same thing with Valhalla.