Sales prediction for AC Shadows?

[Tamamushiiro]

How many copies do you think Shadows will sell?

I think Shadows will sell over 13 million copies, as much as Ghost of Tsushima.

[Stan]

In what time frame? by the end of they year or first couple months/weeks?
Anything between 5-10 million.

[justdrop]

Escrito originalmente por Stan:

In what time frame? by the end of they year or first couple months/weeks?
Anything between 5-10 million.

My guess is 11 - 15m total, probably by year 2.

[HiRed_ThuG]

It currently toping the PS5 pre-order charts and the Amazon best sellers, considering that it's quite a while away from it's actual release, I think that it's going to do very well. I can't speak about sale numbers but I feel, at this current trajectory, that it will surpass Ubisoft's expectations.

If that happens I'm sure that the chuds will run away to to complain about another game and they shall never speak about this game again.

[Argent]

3-5 million probably then itll be around 10m by the end of the year.

[justdrop]

Please excuse my foot rest, he's ornery after everyone laughed at his Youtube source.

[HiRed_ThuG]

Escrito originalmente por Captain Spaulding:

With the way it's looking now (not sure if/how metrics will change), less than 2-3 million in the first couple of months, less than 5-6 million in the first year (after price cuts)... and this probably needs upwards of 6-7 million full priced units (and this is probably a big understatement) to make it's money back... so yeah.

Also, in recent history, other games topped Amazon/Playstation charts before release and failed miserably commercially. That provides no reference/scale to put an actual number next to the ranking. Steam is the only viable metric as you get playtime/wishlists/follows of existing games (which you can then use to extrapolate ownership) which you can then use to extrapolate and estimate pre-sales of games featured alongside the existing games in the ranking. So yeah, it's not looking great for Ubisoft and their shills who'll gobble up just about anything.

Which game topped the charts 2 months before release and failed?

The game is available on consoles, Ubisoft's store and Epic so Steam isn't a viable metric. Any purchases for the PC version made on 3rd party will be for the Ubisoft Connect version.

[justdrop]

You just know it's not going to be an Assassin's Creed game, why ask? It's always some stupid comment about Veilguard with them lol

[justdrop]

Hahaha an EA game when we're discussing Ubisoft ahahaha

Foot stool 1 strikes again

[HiRed_ThuG]

Escrito originalmente por Captain Spaulding:

Escrito originalmente por HiRed_ThuG:

Which game topped the charts 2 months before release and failed?

The game is available on consoles, Ubisoft's store and Epic so Steam isn't a viable metric. Any purchases for the PC version made on 3rd party will be for the Ubisoft Connect version.

https://www.reddit.com/r/PS5/comments/1e6xi0p/the_100_edition_of_ea_sports_fc_25_is_the_most/

And EA has said clearly that this game has "underperformed" (which means it sold poorly). And there are other examples out there, I'm not gonna do the work for you. You just have to you use your brain and ask yourself: what is a rank, what are actual sales numbers and why are they different?

As for Ubisoft, you need only recall how news prior to the launch of Skull & Bones and Outlaws stated how swell the pre-orders were going... we'll probably be getting such "news" very soon about Shadows, but actual pre-order numbers (the only one's we can extrapolate) are from Steam... and they ain't looking pretty.


PS: Steam is so dominant in the space (it makes up likely over 90% of sales on digital PC), so of course it is the most relevant. Plus, you can use it as a proxy since it's so big. And if other games have been deemed failures after "just" Steam numbers showed their failure, the argument will work for this as well.

FC 25 underperformed but that doesn't mean that it had low sales numbers or that it was a flop. It's likely that it had extremely high sales numbers just not as high as the previous iteration of the franchise. The sales would have definitely been high enough to silence the "go woke, go broke crowd".

I don't remember anything being said about the Skull and Bones or Outlaws preorders do you have a source?

Steam does have the dominant market share of around 75% but that doesn't mean that it's the case for Ubisoft specific games.

[justdrop]

You. Cannot. Extrapolate. Data. About. Differing. Companies. Games. And. Attribute. Them. With. Any. Accuracy. To. Another. Company.

Did it get through your head now?

[justdrop]

Bro literally doesn't understand that different companies have different audiences, thinks he can put everything under one umbrella. Literally zero idea of economics in the game realm. Stick to bagging groceries.

[justdrop]

None of your examples matter man, you don't even understand basic economics and I'm not going to sit here explaining it to you. Please, for your own sake, leave and don't come back. You look like a fool every time you post.

[HiRed_ThuG]

Escrito originalmente por Captain Spaulding:

Escrito originalmente por HiRed_ThuG:

FC 25 underperformed but that doesn't mean that it had low sales numbers or that it was a flop. It's likely that it had extremely high sales numbers just not as high as the previous iteration of the franchise.

I don't remember anything being said about the Skull and Bones or Outlaws preorders do you have a source?

Steam does have the dominant market share of around 75% but that doesn't mean that it's the case for Ubisoft specific games.

I'm not going to do the work for you, provided you with another example in Suicide Squad, but I'm not gonna scour the internet looking for this. The point stands and if you can't understand it, well, then that's it: a game's position on a pre-order rank is not indicative of its sales (plus we don't know the period it's referring to, is it a day, a week, an hour?). It can sell 100 and still dominate the charts if there's no meaningful competition and meanwhile, a game selling 500 units would be ranked 2 if another one is selling 1,000... and you might conclude wrongly that the game in the second example is doing worse than the one in the first example.

Also, since you don't know the period, you can't compare it to the other games: maybe game X has been selling 10k units/day for a month and it's finally dropped to like 1k now, and here comes game Y selling 1.5 k/day. And you say: aha, see, it's doing better than game X.

You simply don't know any of this and we have seen plenty of example in the past where a rank on a chart was not indicative of actual results. The only valuable proxy backed by actual sales numbers comes from Steam... and again, you can extrapolate this to the wider market.

It's not just the preorder rank it's the sales rank. It's currently topping sales of all games on Amazon.

Strangely enough suicide squad is mentioned as the top selling PS5 game.

https://store.playstation.com/en-gb/category/75172eb4-ebed-48fc-8892-3f882a51ef18/1

[justdrop]

Yeah, because it's exasperating when your response to telling you that market evaluation isn't about grouping differing companies under one umbrella and extrapolating data about all of them in one blanket statement is "not uh." That you can't use numbers gathered about one company to say with any certainty whether or not it's true for another company.

You refuse to understand that at the basic level of your supposed profession that you are incorrect, there is no point in trying to help you. But your point of being here is to exhaust people with falsities anyway, so it's better to just laugh at you and your feeble attempts, to point out where you're making them and let people who may not be educated on the subject aware that you know nothing.

[HiRed_ThuG]

Escrito originalmente por Captain Spaulding:

Escrito originalmente por HiRed_ThuG:

It's not just the preorder rank it's the sales rank. It's currently topping sales of all games on Amazon.

And number two on Amazon.de is a year old game - Hogwarts Legacy... Again, you have nothing to compare it to! How hard is this to understand?! Here's a question for you: how many units sold does it take to reach number 1? Since you can't answer this, these rankings aren't indicative on anything in terms of actual sales.

I'm assuming that Hogwarts Legacy recently had a deep sale. The rankings are a good indicator of success. They don't guarantee it but they are a good indicator.