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late, I would say.
It's all RNG.
Im 99% sure that trader rewards are fixed and not loot stage dependent.
Loot stage only works when we open something manually.
If this is influenced by Fallout, shouldn't we get one early on? Like maybe a crappy level 1 as a Tier one quest completion reward? Even a stripped down version with half the inventory spots?
Even so getting extra and better quest rewards provide more chance of hitting the RNG lottery. If you are gonna be in the wastelands hunting for loot, might as well be upgrading a trader to tier 5 too.
As others said, just pure RNG.