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Every single game in the world has a massive falloff in userbase over time, in the order of 90-95+% of purchasers no longer playing the game with any regularity or ever.
To copy an older post of mine; Fair warning the numbers are a little off since I won't be updating it to reflect recent changes; Nevertheless, the general point should be fairly clear... Even a 1% retention rate is considered a big success in the gaming industry. As in, You sell 100 million copies, if even 1 million players are still playing your title regularly a year down the line, It's a big success.
To specifically cite the last line of the quote as a TL;DR:
"Being at, or above 1% retention is a sign of major success, Being at 5% or above is an incredible feat shared only by some of the GGOAT's."
The quote below will cover some basic napkin math regarding unique player count- Referred to as UUPM, Unique Users Per Month; As well as retention rate and comparing against some other games using the same napkin math formula, with exception to Minecraft that actually posted their unique monthly users publicly, so I just used that directly as it's UUPM.
Anyway, Sorry for the wall of text... This is pretty long:
=======Quote Below; Not in a quote box to preserve quote nesting=======
You're fundamentally misunderstanding what the numbers mean.
"Players Right Now" is exactly that- At this exact moment as I'm writing this, there are 18,943 unique players online. Tracked over time, this becomes the average concurrent player count- How many users are online at any one time over the course of the day/week/month.
"24-Hour-Peak" is the highest value of concurrent players reached in the last 24 hours.
To be clear here, We end users don't have access to the actual unique player count accessing the game over the course of the month- Steam does, The developers might, but we don't.
Nevertheless, we can make do some well educated guesswork and come to an approximation.
First, Time dedicated to playing- As I said a few posts ago, Absoolutely bare minimum, take whatevver the monthly average is and triple it. Let's call it 30k because that was the number previously cited and used. That means, bare minimum, 90,000 unique users.
Why? Because mathematics and the average human day cycle. Work, Play, Sleep. If you have 3 separate groups that Work, Play, Sleep cycling every 8 hours all day every day all month you get an average concurrent count of 30,000 out of those 90,000 users.
This is, however, at the extreme low end of possible guess work- Almost noone is going to play this 8 hours a day, every day, all month long- Also some people sleep more/less, work more/less... This also does not account for time spent traveling to/from work, bathroom breaks, showers, laundry, and various other obligations we are all beholden to.
===============
Actually, ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥. I went through my post history because I knew I'd talked about this before and wanted to save myself the trouble of re-doing the math for the 40th time, and what do I find? A post where I respond to kkits about pretty much this exact same thing. So I'm just going to copy that here directly alongside a note that some of the numbers used for certain games mentioned may have changed since and I am not updating this post to reflect that; EG: Terraria is now up to 44~ million copies sold, but was a 35mil when I cited it for the post below.
The post in question lies below; Omitting a quote of myself because quote nesting only goes so deep.
=====
This is so startlingly uninformed about how things work in general in the video game industry that it hurts to read. Your point is fundamentally flawed due to a lack of understanding and information.
First off, Player retention is a valuable stat in the industry; And even the most amazing and well received games in history rarely stay over 5% at most for any significant length of time(read: scale in years, not months.). Even 1% retention of sales as active players is considered a solid success a couple years down the line.
But before I can even talk about that, I have to talk about how the daily average player count you see on something like Steam Charts is not the number you seem to think it is.
You, kkitts, seem to be under the impression that the daily average player count is the average number of unique players to have logged in on per day over the course of the month.
This impression is mistaken. The daily average player count is the number of players online at any given time over the course of a day. Meaning that, on average, when one person logs out, a new one logs in to take their place.
People travel. People work. People sleep. People eat. People do chores and maintain their surroundings. People have lives outside of the game. People play other games.
That number you see on steam charts is, At MINIMUM, approximately three times it's value in unique players. And that would be three different shifts of players playing 8 hours, sleeping 8 hours, and working 8 hours. But you and I both know the reality is not going to be so clean.
In reality, Often times people only play the game once or twice a week on their days off. Others only play when their friends can all play. Some only play an hour, maybe two a day. Many don't choose to play 7DTD at every single opportunity they get to play games, And a lot more factors besides.
You have to understand that, on average, gamers play around 15 hours of games a week- That includes ALL playable game sources, mobile included. And the fact that players aren't always going to pick This game is a given.
Without going into all the exhaustive little details, the average daily player count actually represents something like 50-100x it's value in unique players over the course of the month. For 7DTD, that means we're hovering at 1-2~ million unique players monthly. Ish. Going to call it Unique Users Per Month, or UUPM from here.
Out of 14 million, that mean's we're at a retention of, on a lower ball of 50x daily active player count = a little over 1 million UUPM; approximately 1/14th, or about 7.14% player retention.
And now I can finally go back to talking about player retention. Remember what I mentioned before about 5% retention being some of the best games in the world, and 1% retention being a success in the industry?
I want to be clear here- Being close to or over even 5% active users of the total volume of sales is a feat that most games cannot match. Even 1% is relatively rare.
Well 7DTD has been around or over that line for much of it's lifetime. Certainly well over the 1% line.
To use some other games as comparison:
Terraria: Has sold over 35 million copies. And has 35~k daily average players. Applying the same 50x multiplier as we did to 7dtd, and we get 1.75 million UUPM. Now, Terraria is by all accounts, an excellent game; 97% recent positive reviews and 97% all time positive- It is one of the most beloved games of our time. But that 1.75~ million UUPM estimate puts it at 5% on the dot.
Minecraft: with 238 million copies sold it is the singularly most sold video game in human history. The next closest game is GTA5 with 165 million copies. It is estimated that 3-4 million unique users play minecraft daily on average; This is minecraft's UUPM and will not be multiplied. I'll be generous and call it 5 million- That puts Minecraft at 2.1% retention.
GTA5: Since I mentioned it, I'll cover this one too. 165 million copies sold, 104k daily average users on steam charts- Applying the multiplier to the value same as the others presented, and you have 5.2 million UUPM. That puts GTA5 at 3.1% retention.
PUBG: had sold 75 million copies by January 12th 2022. Thing is, it went free to play right after releasing that number. Tracking back to it's player count at the time and you get 150k (Using December's value as January's has the new player surge from the F2P change.) Which with the multiplier puts the UUPM at 7.5 million. That puts PUBG at a solid 10% retention. PUBG is, however, the newest game of the lot; And it's also a highly competetive multiplayer game in which player counts are unlikely to fall off by any significant margin as fast as other single player or light multiplayer centric titles. It is, however, the first title I covered that surpasses 7DTD's retention rate, and by a fair margin.
Noticing a trend here? Every single game listed- Indeed, every single game ever, Has a dramatic 'loss' of player base because of numerous factors, such as, for example, rampant steam sales that like to empty our wallets to fill our libraries with games we'll never get to play that artificially lift sales numbers to be much higher than the actual player count.
7DTD is not unique in this loss of retention, not even close. In fact, that it's still at 7~+% after so many years and in direct spite of all the problems and changes is an astonishing feat that demonstrates that 7DTD is in fact a game that is received incredibly well by it's wider audience in general.
Being at, or above 1% retention is a sign of major success, Being at 5% or above is an incredible feat shared only by some of the GGOAT's.
To use your own phrasing, "The player retention level has spoken. They're still playing it."
==============Quote ends here; Modern addendum below================
As mentioned near the start, the numbers above are a bit out of date; PUBG for example has definitely had a big drop in retention rate, and iirc has gone free to play. But the numbers were accurate for the time it was written and it demonstrates the point.
If you were to re-do the UUPM right now with current player counts for 7DTD, You'd actually get a number over 7%. We've currently got 52,800~ average concurrent players for the last 30 days, x50 as a conservative multiplier for UUPM and you get 2,640,000; Which is monumental 16.5~% retention of the 16,000,000~ sales of the game. This number has meandered up and down with the releases, but 7DTD has consistently been well above the 1% retention rate that the gaming industry considers to be a major success; And most of it's lifetime has been over 5~% as well; Which puts it up there as comparable or greater to some of the GGOATS.
This is all napkin math of course; So take it with a grain of salt. If I had the actual numbers, I'd use em.. Sadly, Only steam has that data, and maybe the developers.. Not us. But we can very much get a ballpark view of things as demonstrated above. Maybe I've got a 20~% margin of error on the UUPM estimate for the game; But that would still leave it well above 1%, and still above 5~% too.
Anyway.. This is already long enough. TL;DR: Retention rates over 1% are excellent, The number of Unique Users Per Month of a game is typically, as a ballpark estimate, somewhere around 50-100x the active concurrent playercount.
Have a good day whether you actually read through the above or not.
So those that say the game is moving in the wrong direction are the ones who are objectively right, while those that do not agree with that assessment are just simple fanboys?
Never seen a tried argument to commit seppuku that fast.
While I have to admit that not all of the recent changes are to my personal taste, I know people I play with who are pretty satisfied with them.
And in the end: those of us who spend time on the forum are still quite a minority of the playerbase - yet alone those of us who regularly post on the forum.
So the forums are not really that representative for how changes are perceived in general.
The point of the experimental build is to make it clear that this version might be buggy AF, and you should expect at least one "major" update that will force a game-reset.
You have all the time in the world inbetween builds to point out flaws or gameplayfeatures that you dont like.
TFP has a vision they are working towards. It's mostly outlined in the Kickstarter goals, but a lot of it has been discussed in the Dev Diaries on the Official Forum for years.
And this is where you, and those like you, end up getting things so wrong.
You complain about features like Learn-by-doing being removed "unexpectedly", or that the progression has been changed a number of times, so that means that the dev has no focus.
They have advertised their vision on these features since the beginning. Before LBD was added as a placeholder, the owners were talking about the type of skill system they wanted in the game, and it wasn't the placeholder that they had put in place. Even before that placeholder existed, it was known that that wasn't their intention for the end product. For those coming later, who haven't been following the developers and reading their posts of the official forums, it may come as a surprise when changes happen. That doesn't mean the developer doesn't have focus, or that they are changing things just to gimp the player, or on a whim because they don't know what they are doing. It just means that you don't know the reasons.
You have to remember; this game is still going through core feature development. This isn't something that most players have access to with other games. Up until 7 Days was available, with the beginning of the Early Access boon that started a decade ago, this would have never happened. At least it was pretty rare unless you were active in certain networks where you could get insider access.
Which brings us to the crux of the issue. Most of the small handful of players that are complaining about feature changes, are simply ignorant of the big picture. And it seems that the louder one is, the more ignorant they seem to be. I don't say this to be offensive. You see it everywhere in the forum. You the collective complainers will even go so far as to shout names and obscenities to those who try to educate you on what is going on. Or on those who try to provide actual facts and reasoning for the changes. Or those who attempt to help you with the issue you are complaining about. You call them "white knights" and "fanboys".
The Fun Pimps listen to the metrics they collect from the majority of players playing the game, not the vocal few. Which means that they do actually listen. They have made changes based on these metrics, and on their vision of what they want the game to be. Not based on a handful of players that are good at shouting loudly and being obscene.
You seem to be the guy that hates his meal and complains the portions are too small.
Best of luck to ya.
I mean, do the math yourself. Count up the total of individual people who are complaining about a single topic. Now consider that the average number of concurrent players since a21 dropped is about 50,000. That isn't the total number of people to have actually been playing, just the average number of people playing at the same time. A lot of people only play games for a few hours, and only on a few days of the week. So based on that you can pretty easily assume that at least half a million people have been actively playing the latest version. Most likely more.
Now take those numbers, and figure out what % of those your total number of unhappy people are. It's a pretty small percentage yeah? Now we cannot just assume that the rest of the people are happy. We can however assume that the majority of them aren't having an issue with the way the game is currently. At least not unhappy enough to visit the forum and be vocal about it.
And again, TFP doesn't rely on the loud bunch on the forum for gameplay information like this. They get it from the internal data from the millions of people playing the game.
So think about it. Which data is going to weigh heavier? A hundred or so people being loud on the forums, or hard trackable information provided from the datasets of millions of people actually playing.
It isn't rocket science. It isn't a hard concept to understand if you actually look at it logically.
they said A20 would be the last since about A17
This has been said in their Dev streams on youtube repeatedly.
The also said they were happy with progress and how the game play loop was in A19 but we see how that turned out.
Not everyone is going to post a complaint, or for that matter, a glowing praise for the game. Furthermore, it is a completely reasonable that people will keep playing a game while absolutely loathing a certain mechanic, while others will simply quit, all while not waving their hands in the air.