Is the game too luck based?

[eepy83]

I swear this game is so RNG based and I feel like I have no control over my runs

[Exploding Carrot]

Originally posted by ambershee:

Originally posted by Exploding Carrot:

All of the wins I've had so far (all 3 of them, not much I know), have come from me being able to level up Pair enough and getting the right Jokers. I have no idea how people relying on 4 to 5 card hands are winning because getting those hands can be very tricky!

If you cut your deck right down to guarantee you can get that hand within your discards, and have jokers etc. that will hit the target score with one hand, it's fairly doable. When I beat orange stake for the first time, I was playing 'five of a kind' because my deck was entirely 2s with seals on them.

That also requires getting the correct cards, ie Hanged Man, to be able to cut your deck down to that degree.

[ambershee]

Originally posted by Exploding Carrot:

Originally posted by ambershee:

If you cut your deck right down to guarantee you can get that hand within your discards, and have jokers etc. that will hit the target score with one hand, it's fairly doable. When I beat orange stake for the first time, I was playing 'five of a kind' because my deck was entirely 2s with seals on them.

That also requires getting the correct cards, ie Hanged Man, to be able to cut your deck down to that degree.

It does, but there's no shortage of ways to do it. In the case of the 2s deck, it was using Blueprint and Vagabond to generate six or so tarot cards per round. There are numerous other ways to generate tarot cards (Superposition, Hallucination, Cartomancer etc.) and numerous other ways of copying cards and effects (DNA, Perkeo, Brainstorm etc.). Failing that there are ways of straight up destroying cards too (Trading Card, Glass Cards, Immolate etc.).

The odds of getting any specific combo of those in a run is quite small, but you are likely to run across at least a couple of these tools in most runs.

[Beakstore]

All I know is I was doing the challenge last night where you start with $100 and chips can't exceed money you have. On ante 6 I got the boss that sets your money to zero if you play a flush. Guess what I had built my deck around playing. I couldn't pass it with other hands so the run was over. Sometimes luck is a factor in rogue type games.

[Goblin]

Originally posted by Beakstore:

All I know is I was doing the challenge last night where you start with $100 and chips can't exceed money you have. On ante 6 I got the boss that sets your money to zero if you play a flush. Guess what I had built my deck around playing. I couldn't pass it with other hands so the run was over. Sometimes luck is a factor in rogue type games.

That boss isn't random, it's your most played hand. Knowing to not rely on your most played hand type to win when money is literally your lifeline and there's a boss that resets your money if you play it is a skill, not luck.

[snakeskip]

I think the only way to get absolutely convinced that winning White Stake has little to do with luck is to get good enough to prove it to yourself. No one is going to present a mathematical proof. And even if someone did, some people would not believe it's correct.

[Klaw]

Game is RNG based, a lot. But only when you try to play higher stakes.
At lower stakes, nearly every builds are playable, and lots of runs are winnable. Of course you can have bad luck, but well that's kinda the point.

But when you are going for gold stake ? Well, get ready to reset. A LOT. Not a lot of builds are playable (because you need a lot of points really early), you unlocked tons of jokers and most of them are unusable, ...
I won't lie : low stakes runs are really fun and perfectly balanced. High stakes runs ? Not so much because most of the runs won't go past Ante 4. A way to "narrow" the available jokers or something like that would help, but I don't have a perfect solution to propose, because the point is not to trivialize the game either.

[Kiro]

Originally posted by snakeskip:

I think the only way to get absolutely convinced that winning White Stake has little to do with luck is to get good enough to prove it to yourself. No one is going to present a mathematical proof. And even if someone did, some people would not believe it's correct.

It is not the problem to win on white stacks. Everybody with a bit experience could easy do this.

It is about winrates of 95% or more. (some pages before was talking about easy 99%)
To get this winrate there is much luck involved.
There are unlucky seeds (maybe just for the built you choose) who cant be won by 100%.

[Impericus]

Originally posted by Kiro:

Originally posted by snakeskip:

I think the only way to get absolutely convinced that winning White Stake has little to do with luck is to get good enough to prove it to yourself. No one is going to present a mathematical proof. And even if someone did, some people would not believe it's correct.

It is not the problem to win on white stacks. Everybody with a bit experience could easy do this.

It is about winrates of 95% or more. (some pages before was talking about easy 99%)
To get this winrate there is much luck involved.
There are unlucky seeds (maybe just for the built you choose) who cant be won by 100%.

THIS^ - Stating every run on white stake is 99% win rate is just not true. That might be your experience but surely not the common ground. It is a poker based card game - so stating zero luck is involved... well, think about it.

I had runs where I easily wipe through everything and with all the knowledge on how jokers, tarots etc work and how to combine them I had runs where zero jokers helped with multipliers, I stacked money and there was just nothing helpful to by that at a rather early point my played flushes did not amount to the needed sum even though I played Flushes each hand.

There were zero options to increase multipliers, all received tarot cards didn't help nor said jokers. So yes, that can happen.

I even have the feeling that unlocking lots of extra jokers ever so slightly turns the odds against you as not all of them are really helpful and just swamp the chances of getting the good ones.

[S♥ShiMe]

you can see it this way:

White: 90% Skill 10% Luck
Gold: 10% Skill 90% Luck

[snakeskip]

Originally posted by Kiro:

It is about winrates of 95% or more. (some pages before was talking about easy 99%)
To get this winrate there is much luck involved.
There are unlucky seeds (maybe just for the built you choose) who cant be won by 100%.

The developer himself disagrees. He thinks a perfect player beats White Stake every time. There's no proof that's the case, but his guess is better than mine anyway. I think a win rate of at least 95% is very reasonable.

But I'm just a newbie who just managed to beat Gold Stake first time. Took 8 runs to succeed. The seed is R3UXULJW. It was a very good seed, no doubt about that.

Now I can quite comfortably say that it's easier to beat Gold Stake than to convince people that success on low stakes has very little to do with luck.

[WZ]

Imho 20/80 or maybe 25/75 for white, am probably just average skill though
Clearing things slowly on x1 speed, got green cleared with almost every deck now
Certainly skill is the main factor on low stakes and by a large margin
A bit less true in the beginning when you have almost nothing unlocked
But once you have a decent selection, you have a genuine shot almost every run
When you lose, try to blame RNG a bit less & look where you can improve a bit more
I'm at around 33% winrate on green, still making mistakes / learning every run

GLHF

[Kiro]

Are not mods planed for this game in the workshop?

Maybe there comes a (non fakeable) statistic mod.

Then we (or better the pro`s) can select fresh new profile and find out.

[A bear]

That mod sounds like a great idea, not for posting results or anything, but just figuring out if you're decision making is getting better across runs. Kinda like a K/D ratio in shooters.

[KyrLu]

Originally posted by Kiro:

Originally posted by Astroooooooo:

Don't listen to the trolls saying you have to "git gud" to win. It takes random luck to have the right jokers in the first few shops at higher stakes or you have to start a new run.

But my opinion (at this moment, maybe it changed with a few more expirience ) that that also count on withe stake.

As example: 78QWK3F1

With checkered deck. I picked Telescope on Ante 2 (or first shop 3??)
I guess its a nobrainer by playing the checkered flush deck.

Ante 3 = Big Boss with 11.200, and nothing to dodge.

Originally posted by S♥ShiMe:

even drspectred has to rerun and get lucky with jokers at gold. indeed the trolls "git gud" don't help a nice game become nicer.

On gold it is absolutely clear that you need luck and rerolls.

Sry but anybody who claims you can only achieve a 50% win rate is just dreaming. :)

I tried the run : https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=3204348932 
Not too much trouble, but it was enjoyable. I didn’t bought anything in the first shop, but I bought Fortune Teller and two packs in the next one. I didn't have a great economy, so I bought Telescope at the last shop available. At this point, I had a weak Fortune Teller and Heart mult Joker with 29 hearts in the deck. 2 shops before the Wall, I got a holographic Even Steven (+4 mult on even cards) and bought my first celestial pack. I think I two-shot the Wall with that. Next ante, I bought an Ice cream, 1 or 2 (?) celestial packs, a late Gros Michel, and beat the heart debuff boss without issue (only using heart flush would have been good enough, I think, but obviously spade flush was better). Later in the run, there was a Bloodstone, Cavendish and even a Blueprint. Not sure if this seed is beatable on higher stakes, but definitely doable on lower stakes.

[Zouls]

Originally posted by Kiro:

Originally posted by Zouls:

I dont want to come off as a ♥♥♥♥ but im completely lost on how people can play that long and "only" get white stakes

Im 18 hours in and have done all unlocked decks on stake 2 and some on stake 3 i believe,

There are 16 Decks in the game. You done all on white and red stake and a few on green stake.

That about 40 wins in just 18 hours as complete new player, plus surely included some time in endless mode, in the menu and collection and maybe, (just maybe) a few looses, if not on white, then on red or green decks?

All in 18 hours?

Sounds a bit high. Even you play on speed 4. ;)

But hey, maybe you are a genius.

Also the invitation to you to prove via Discord and shared screen that you can win 95% of all white decks.

I'll collect a few unfavorable seeds, we'll meet in Discord and you'll show that you can beat them all.

I tried to do a proper counter, https://gyazo.com/a4dc43bd729e9fcbe5a5b3b394d3ee83
i miscounted as i just did all the decks in order of unlocking, so 19 wins on i guess 10 decks, no challenge has been attempted multiple times.

My poiint is less "omg so genius" and that a white run you can basically bruteforce most decks with common jokers to win (i think black deck is the exception)