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There are some tricks you can use to mitigate uptier potentials such as knowing "meta" BR ranges for instance.
The most frequent downtiers I get are from USSR and US 6.3 because German 5.3 is extremely popular thanks to the Tigers and Panthers there. The Matchmaking prioritizes reducing queue time above all else. If you know what BR ranges are popular and people are queuing heavily into, you can play around that to a degree.
You still still absolutely get uptiered playing USSR/US 6.3 (7.3 is especially not fun for US 6.3), but you have better odds of not being uptiered there thanks to German 5.3.
But as someone who frequently switches between Premium and "Free"...It definitely feels like it and last people you should believe is Gaijin (and their mods).
Especially if you get new stock vehicles, youre basically guaranteed to have full uptiers until the free repairs run out with maybe one "own" tier or downtier to make you less mad xD
I'm more referencing the current fiasco going on with economy/greed of gaijin and the terrible attempt at a PR action to "clear up" the furious playerbase the last few days. But I do know games have that capability when money is involved [and the game leads can and will happily lie about if it's actually happening or not. Wargaming got caught in several lies in the past, as has gaijin with their balancing. The most notorious for lying though I can remember is RETO, though with their in-game sales prior to their bankruptcy, but i digress.
As far as the actual legitimacy of it all involving the fairness of the B.R gameplay, as a premium player who buys 3 months, goes 6 months and then buys 3 months again... as well as a primarily german player who spends most time in the 5.3-6.7 range:
it's a mixed bag.... generally speaking i only ever see the bottom of the tier-listing when not on a premium account. When on a premium account It was certainly less often I saw my tanks on the bottom of the B.R listing (generally got middle of the road or top rank), but, it isn't a thing that always happens. Like I said, it just feels like it's a biased 'weight' system, similar to how Wargaming pulls their tank weight to favor premium players to ensure they have more competitive/fun engagements while pushing free players to purchase premium due to increased grind... (been part of that nightmare since 2011.)
as you said, It most likely is just the player variation due to favorites being primarily Germany.... but it's hard to believe that when most games are filled to the brim with T-34s and T-44s in my experience (not a gesture at saying it's a thing that happens game-wide, just personal experience.)
You will be up tiered and up cheated every match you leave the game or buy premium everything to stop the frustration. that is the business model.
4.7-face Moffits 5.0 Prinz Eugen 5.7
5.0/5.3-face Helena and the Russian alphabet CL 6.0
5.7- above plus Des Moines and BB
6.0-7.0 BB
almost all of my matches are like that
i would love to just be same-tiered, not even down