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FTFY.
After the gang escape, the infection starts and all that. Bain also falls victim depending on how No Mercy ended. (even if he left the gang for dead, he'd probably still end up dying in the infection along with pretty much everyone else)
Left 4 Dead happens, with a timeline split on Mercy Hospital, because Mercy Hospital was bombed into oblivion in this timeline. Because I'm not quite knowledgeable enough on L4D I don't know the exact reprecussions of this, it could've been extremely minor or very important.
That's pretty much all there is to say. Unless, of course, you want to go into full-on speculation territory.
Some Left 4 Dead players have put forward the idea that, from the perspective of the zombies, life is carrying on in a relatively normal fashion and it's the humans that are unnatural. The only real piece of evidence for this was in the L4D "The Sacrifice" comic, where at one point we see from the POV of an infected (but not yet turned) man, who sees the Survivors as demons as opposed to just normal people. People have also made numerous comments about the way zombies in the series behave, and while these pieces of evidence aren't wholly convincing they do demonstrate the zombies in L4D have a higher degree of intelligence than simply "eat whatever moves".
If we were to go off from this idea, you could put forward the hypothetical that everything after No Mercy is actually just a hallucination on the behalf of the zombified gang.
But at that stage you're REALLY stretching to explain No Mercy- But aside from a miracle cure suddenly being distributed hours after the gang finish the heist, I don't see another way it could be canon.
You do realize this is the payday gang, Right? If the virus doesnt kill them, then they could hold their own for a LONG time.
They've only got so many Medic Bags, let alone ammo (considering that the Infected wouldn't drop any due to not having guns and all). They're not going to get a resupply, and there's not likely going to be any way out (in theory they MIGHT be able to pull the same stunt as the Survivors and escape to a remote island to live out their days, but that's if they come up with that plan on their own). Sooner or later, they almost certainly will run out of supplies, at which point, they're screwed.
And, of course, that's assuming that they don't just get bombed outright. The Army bombs the hell out of the hospital in the heist-- realistically speaking, they'll likely shoot Bain out of the air (in the event of the helicopter escape), or blow up anything they see on the roads nearby (ambulance escape), just to be sure.
While I am not very familiar with the L4D universe, the payday gang seems like they would become those stereotypical raider types, traveling the country killing and stealing from other survivors, so they would probably find SOME way to keep supplies up for a little while.
But what I find more likely is that offshore island kind of thing happening. I assume they DO escape from Mercy hospital, in which case I would not be surprised if Bain had a whole backup plan set up just in case ♥♥♥♥ hits the fan. I'd imagine the gang getting a call from Bain basically saying "hey guys, you need to get the ♥♥♥♥ out a town, the army is going to nuke this place soon. I have a hellicopter staitioned a fair ways outsside the city that will take you to someplace safe. See you there."
but yeah this is assuming they don't get turned
Yes. With the survivor's perk deck