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After doing 7-8 Exalt mission successfully in total you will narrow down HQ location to 1 country.(on classic difficulty).
Now if you accuse some country of harboring Exalt and they are the wrong one they leave Xcom and you lose their funding if they already left that continent gets panic increase.
If everyone left in that continent than you can quess their HQ.
On non ironman you can savescum it too.
On classic difficulty HQ has 5 pod of 3 Exalt elite so total of 15 soldiers.
Personally I always put off attacking their base for as long as I could as because those missions are generally far easier than ones against the normal enemies they make for perfect opportunities to train up any lower level troops I have.
Far more so once you realise just how brokenly OP an operative with both Low Profile and Mimetic Skin is on such missions (or any other mission for that matter).
The only way to get those guns for free is to take in the aliens alive.
eventually you can narrow it down to 1 country. though sometimes you do get redundant info
I didn't play civ 5 so I don't know which countries those are. but with the original info there's still a large number of possibilities. all of europe except UK, all of africa, india and china if I'm not mistaken.
exalt don't get plasma weaponry. the council do sometimes special request a few exalt weapons so maybe keep some extra just in case if you're low on money / scientists / engineers, but don't feel like you need to hold off on raiding exalt HQ for this particular reason.
you'll know when it's time to raid exalt HQ because you'll get bored of them. if late game aliens are a problem though, it can be worth keeping exalt around to train up rookies easier until you're more ready.