Overwatch Penalty

[P-47 Thunderbolt]

The most common theory stated is that the overwatch aim penalty is -20 aim. This bit of misinformation is so prevalent that it is often considered correct. After testing I must say that it is unlikely that the overwatch aim penalty is a flat -20. Using a soldier with 120 aim I tested overwatch. If it was -20 then overwatch would hit 100% of the time.

Using the save scum option on a classic campaign I produced a situation where one sectoid would always move into overwatch fire. By reloading the save I could test to see if 120 aim meant a guaranteed hit on overwatch. Only took two attempts to miss an overwatch shot. The heavy had no perks that alter overwatch and sectoids have no innate defensive bonuses. The sectoid also did not dash as the AI usually never dashes and it took a shot after the missed overwatch. Unless there is something wonky with decimals I must come to the conclusion that the overwatch penalty is a % based penalty or higher than -20.

I have known this for quite some time and it is really not that useful at this point, but I thought it is better late than never. I saved the video is anyone wants to see proof.

[Meimei]

This is a nice bit of research - Just checking because people here can be funny - your soldiers aim is exactly 120? Not 119 or 118? Because there are people here who would condsider it "just as good" and it's really not for this kind of test.

Perhaps you could repeat the test 100 times to get an idea as to the true penalty.

I am assuming that you have ensured there are no battle fatigue effects swaying the results - because they are not explicitally expressed in game.

Thank you for the research - I will repeat this test myself to see if we can narrow down some accurate percentages.

[P-47 Thunderbolt]

The heavy's aim is 120 right on the dot. This was very important since the -20 would only work if your soldier had 120 aim. I forgot about battle fatigue but it would be a non-issue in this case. I was able to set up the overwatch trap early in the mission and the heavy took no damage.

Just as a guess I would say 20% seems like a reasonable place to start.
120x.20 = 24. 120-24= 96% which would account for the occasional miss. That would mean 125 is the aim needed for 100% chance to hit on overwatch if 20% is the penalty.

Also, I assume the dash penalty would also be a percent based penalty.

[Incunabulum]

There are *range* penalties to be figured in also.

Also, the penalty is -20 for a *move* and -40 for a *dash*

Like it says in the wiki.

[Temper]

I've seen the penalty mentioned being anywhere from 10 to 20.

There's also mention of the word reaction in the DefaultGameCore.ini settings but have no idea if that's even related to overwatch.

I've never had the opportunity to test this with a scenario you have set up currently and in 600 hours on PC and double on PS3 overwatch shots seemed more in line with being taken at a flat rate,regardless of the soldiers offense score (accepting opportunist) with an added penalty when the target dashes.

There is no official in depth documentation regarding these mechanics,that I can find.It may be the case that there is a hidden penalty on overwatch so that the game dosn't boil down to bait and lure 100%,but that's merely speculative,as is anything I could think of regarding the issue because of the lack of official mechanics explainations.

=)

[Temper]

Originally posted by Incunabulum:

There are *range* penalties to be figured in also.

Also, the penalty is -20 for a *move* and -40 for a *dash*

Like it says in the wiki.

I was thinking range penalties as well,but the LMG,like the assault rifle suffers no long range penalty and gets a bonus within 10 tiles up to 37.5 max at point blank. IIRC

Not sure if P51H Mustangs experiment had a dash included though.

EDIT: No dash from the sectoid in original post.

=)

[P-47 Thunderbolt]

The sectoid starts out in full cover and the heavy has an 80% chance to hit. This indicates that no range bonus was factored in as the sectoid moves along the same plane and a bit back of the original tile. I am going to have to say that wikipedia is wrong in this case.

In addition, the range bonus of the LMG would only make it easier to hit on overwatch not harder. The AI does not dash often and in the video I have it takes a shot after the overwatch misses to show that it was a single move.

[kabukiman]

Originally posted by P51H Mustang:

The most common theory stated is that the overwatch aim penalty is -20 aim. This bit of misinformation is so prevalent that it is often considered correct. After testing I must say that it is unlikely that the overwatch aim penalty is a flat -20. Using a soldier with 120 aim I tested overwatch. If it was -20 then overwatch would hit 100% of the time.

Hope you tested with aliens that don't have any defense value or that would make your tests pretty invalid.

As far as my info goes, overwatch is supposed to work with a 0.7 multiplier to aim, with another 0.7 multiplier added for dashing. Taking a 100 aim trooper and a basic sectoid without defense, that would give 70% to hit on overwatch, reduced further to 49% if the target is dashing.

Furthermore - what difficulty did you make your tests at? AFAIK XCOM makes some invisible adjustments for difficulties below classic to give the player an edge.

I'd recommend the following article if you really want to go into it: http://www.win-vector.com/blog/2012/12/how-to-test-xcom-dice-rolls-for-fairness/

[P-47 Thunderbolt]

Classic to avoid aim bonuses.
Sectoids have no defense buffs.

[MestreLion]

Care to test if your results are consistent with a 0.7 multiplier instead of a -20 flat subtraction? In Enemy Within's DefaultGameCore.ini there is:

REACTION_PENALTY=0.7f ; Reaction fire amount of hit chance.
DASHING_REACTION_MODIFIER=0.7f ; Reaction fire amount of hit chance against a dashing unit.

So your 120 Aim heavy would have a 120*0.7 = 84% base chance of hit, which could be consistent with an occasional miss (~ 1 miss every 6 shots)

It would be nice to verify if this was changed in EW or if it was always the case in the original Enemy Unknown, and if EU's parameters are the same.

[red255]

Hi, you did a lengthy post and some research, I'm wondering why you didn't do any research on the premise of the post you were proving wrong.

One. its .7x. for reaction fire always was, with the additional .7x for a dash.

and 2. cover is added in, enemy defense, all that jazz. smoke. iff applicable.

So your premise is a tad false. it really hinders any gotcha moment you were trying to accrue.

so basically you proved what everyone knew, your numbers were wrong to start with.
you could have just asked though. but then I guess you'd need to know who to trust.

and who ever said -20% was clearly not that person.

[MestreLion]

Hi there red! Not sure if "you" in your post means me or the OP.

The OP has a point: it's hard to find accurate and trusted info about some numbers and mechanics. Both UFOPedia and Wikia, my primary sources when I started to learn more about the game, have errors here and there, and sometimes contradict each other.

Wikia claims RF is -20 Aim (plain subtraction), and UFOPedia says it's a 0.7 multiplier (consistent with the INI). But the INI setting might be only valid in EW, so EU might be -20.

I'm not sure where the -20 in Wikia came from, and I really would like to know what are the real values in play in both EU and EW, preferably with good cited sources.

[red255]

the wikia says:
This reaction shot incurs a -20 Aim penalty and has a 0% Critical chance. Firing at a Dashing enemy with Overwatch adds another -20 Aim penalty for a total of -40 Aim.

(outdated - reaction shot aim penaty is now 0.7 multiplier. additionaly 0.7 multiplier for Dashing)[citation needed]

so it apparently changed at some point in the distant past.

but I don't talk about dinosaurs so who cares. its not true NOW so who cares?

[MestreLion]

I was there before coming here, and I'm about to edit the page once I can find good sources. Check the Talk Page, the guy that added this "outdated" part also has the same questions as the OP and myself.

We're not sure if it's not true NOW. Maybe it's still true for EU, and your "NOW" refers only to EW. We're actually not even sure if it's true for EW, even if the INI strongly suggests so.

[red255]

Oh, well I don't have strong sources, I just know what the number is now. and since long war changes it I can't really test even if I desired to.

I'm not sure it was ever -20 though.

[MestreLion]

I'm willing to edit the Wikia and fix all the references of -20 to 0.7x, including the examples scattered in many related articles (Overwatch, for example). But the problem is I'm not sure if 0.7 stands for EW only or both EW and EU, and wikia clearly makes a distinction for EW-only content and mechanics.

Also, even the 0.7x is debateable.The INI seems to be the only source, but does it apply to ALL reaction shots? Maybe it's just for the Aliens, or maybe just for Multiplayer.

I'm really enjoying EU and EW, but I admit is a bit frustrating to play a Strategy game where so many important rules are not fully known.