Are the percentages displayed accurate?

[kwyjibo]

I'm not suggesting the game cheats. I think that accusation is a load of BS. But I was wondering if there are hidden variables which mean the percentages are different to how they're displayed. I ask because I thought I'd try a tactic of taking more shots. I took a lot 50-60% shots but I missed them much more than half the time (I kept notes). It's like flipping a trick coin but getting a tails 10 times in a row, very very often. Of course, I could just be unlucky.

[red255]

theres some behind the scenes stuff working in your favor on the lower difficulties apparently.

but other than that they are accurate. assuming you understand about seeds and probability in general.

which I'm not sure you do from your post.

[Problematiq]

Not even close to being correct. Theres a group of 12 of us that play this and when all 12 can spend 3 rounds with average of 55% hit chance with 6 unit's and all 3 rounds we miss? there not even close.

[red255]

yes the frequent arguement with the odds being wrong is that they missed.

its not a mathmatical one.

[Lieght]

I actually miss 100% shot once, so yeah, i believe there is hidden modifier, on impossible difficulty at least.

[kwyjibo]

Please explain what I don't get. If I was only taking 50% shots then I should hit half the time right? If I am taking 50-60% shots then I should hit more than half the time? I kept a tally of all the shots I took that were between 50-60% once I started to feel that I was missing more than I should be. It confirmed that I was indeed missing more than half so that got me wondering. I am open to the idea that it was just a fluke though.

[Tiamat]

It's calculated individually for every shot, so theoretically you could miss more than 50% of your shots despite being consistently at 50% if you're just hitting a bad streak. Difficulty modifier plays it towards or against your favor depending on how low or high it is, and does so AFTER the percentage calculation, however.

[Benjafins]

Originally posted by Mark E Moon:

Please explain what I don't get. If I was only taking 50% shots then I should hit half the time right? If I am taking 50-60% shots then I should hit more than half the time? I kept a tally of all the shots I took that were between 50-60% once I started to feel that I was missing more than I should be. It confirmed that I was indeed missing more than half so that got me wondering. I am open to the idea that it was just a fluke though.

This is why casinos make money. It doesn't matter how many times you missed before, you will always have a 50% shot at hitting the target on your next shot. If you do a 50% 10 times the odds are more likely to favor either hitting or missing-it is a small sample size. Do a 50% shot 100 times and it will generally show signs of balance but still favor hit or miss. Do a 50% 1000 times, 100,000, 1,000,000 times and it will close that gap between hit and miss.

Flip a coin and record your heads and tails for 10 flips, 50 flips, and 100 flips on a piece of paper and see for yourself.

[characters]

Originally posted by Mark E Moon:

I think that accusation is a load of BS. But I was wondering if there are hidden variables which mean the percentages are different to how they're displayed.

IMO, you should know that percentages are based on simple probablility, not statistics, so if the percentage is 50 and your first shot misses, next precentage is still same and probability of hit of your next shot is still 50.
But you should also have in mind that this game has some bugs or ... idle hit-chance (that is "punishing" in other words). you will come across with that when your soldier shoot twice a same target in one turn, that quite frequently ends with same results.

This may be quite serious for you when you missed the first attempt to stun a target with even over 90 percentage, that quite probably leads you to the same result in the second attempt on next turn.

To handle that situation, you should reload the autosave file, or have another soldier take on the target, not the same soldier, and it is safer that you have two soldiers bring Arc Throwers, or you shold change targets if you miss the first attempt; otherwise same as last time.

[red255]

"To handle that situation, you should reload the autosave file, ..."

I guess. if you wanted all shots to be 100% why not just make your soldiers have 200 aim?
please don't say handle the situation by cheating.

Originally posted by Mark E Moon:

Please explain what I don't get. If I was only taking 50% shots then I should hit half the time right? If I am taking 50-60% shots then I should hit more than half the time? I kept a tally of all the shots I took that were between 50-60% once I started to feel that I was missing more than I should be. It confirmed that I was indeed missing more than half so that got me wondering. I am open to the idea that it was just a fluke though.

Sample size is insignificant. you can still be below 50% after 1000 shots or above 50% by a factor of 15% really. though the people 15% higher do not complain.

standard deviation is apparently that high. for some people at least. my shots seem to be reasonably on target.

[kwyjibo]

" It doesn't matter how many times you missed before, you will always have a 50% shot at hitting the target on your next shot."
Yes I know that, nothing in my post contradicts that. I of course know that it is possible to get long chains of consecutive tails on a coin flip. Still, if we're playing a game where I win $5 every time it's a heads and you win $5 every time it's a tails it's reasonable to be suspicious that you're using a trick coin if the results are far outside of standard deviation in your favour. And that suspicion becomes more justified by degrees the longer we play if the trend continues. That doesn't mean that you necessarily are cheating, you might just be lucky. Even still, the suspicion is justifiable.

My results were outside the standard deviation so I was merely curious. I knew the sample size was small so I was explicitly open to the idea that the results were anomolous. My wondering whether the percentages might be innaccurate was not unreasonable given that it is actually true (albeit completely in the opposite way to how I imagined). http://www.giantbomb.com/xcom-2/3030-49817/forums/xcom-2-is-un-fair-1792143/

[characters]

Originally posted by red255:

"To handle that situation, you should reload the autosave file, ..."

I guess. if you wanted all shots to be 100% why not just make your soldiers have 200 aim?
please don't say handle the situation by cheating.

Well, even if you gain 100%, that cannot bring you 100% hit in this game, and handling situations which is caused by weakness of original script files, with reloading autosave- files, is not cheatin, IMO.

[Telfram]

Originally posted by Mark E Moon:

Please explain what I don't get. If I was only taking 50% shots then I should hit half the time right? If I am taking 50-60% shots then I should hit more than half the time? I kept a tally of all the shots I took that were between 50-60% once I started to feel that I was missing more than I should be. It confirmed that I was indeed missing more than half so that got me wondering. I am open to the idea that it was just a fluke though.

Well, its a 50% on THAT shot. i.e. if you fired ten shots all together, 5 should hit, right.
But the next shot you fire is a NEW shot with a 50% chance of its own.

On the other side, you never see any grumbling posts when your 11% does a critical hit?

[kwyjibo]

Originally posted by Telfram:

Originally posted by Mark E Moon:

Please explain what I don't get. If I was only taking 50% shots then I should hit half the time right? If I am taking 50-60% shots then I should hit more than half the time? I kept a tally of all the shots I took that were between 50-60% once I started to feel that I was missing more than I should be. It confirmed that I was indeed missing more than half so that got me wondering. I am open to the idea that it was just a fluke though.

Well, its a 50% on THAT shot. i.e. if you fired ten shots all together, 5 should hit, right.

Yes, and that was exactly what I was asking about. I was wondering why more than half of the shots I took in the 50-60% bracket were missing. Was it luck, bugs or does the game use a more complicated algorithm for determining hits than it would appear? It seemed like a pretty reasonable question but this being the internet I should have known that I would get a load of patronising replies.

But the next shot you fire is a NEW shot with a 50% chance of its own.

Obviously.

On the other side, you never see any grumbling posts when your 11% does a critical hit?

I wouldn't have said I was grumbling particularly but if my 11% shots had been hitting far more than 11/100 times I would definitely have started to wonder along the same lines.

[Telfram]

Originally posted by Mark E Moon:

Originally posted by Telfram:

Well, its a 50% on THAT shot. i.e. if you fired ten shots all together, 5 should hit, right.

Yes, and that was exactly what I was asking about. I was wondering why more than half of the shots I took in the 50-60% bracket were missing. Was it luck, bugs or does the game use a more complicated algorithm for determining hits than it would appear? It seemed like a pretty reasonable question but this being the internet I should have known that I would get a load of patronising replies.

But the next shot you fire is a NEW shot with a 50% chance of its own.

Obviously.

On the other side, you never see any grumbling posts when your 11% does a critical hit?

I wouldn't have said I was grumbling particularly but if my 11% shots had been hitting far more than 11/100 times I would definitely have started to wonder along the same lines.

I was'nt being patronising and aplogize if it can across as such. I was pointing out that the odds are not cumalative on the calculation of shots, and the last paragragh was more of a tongue in cheek moment.

[kwyjibo]

No apology necessary. In hindsight I was being a bit defensive