I dont understand the probabilities in this game

[ImperialForce9]

Trying to pIay on Hard. I try and do the right things, I get my guy to flank an enemy while being in full cover, kill that enemy.Then a different one just does 6 damage to them outright even though my guy was in full cover?

[robin]

the chance to get hit is never 0. It's calculated by adding the attacker's stats and bonuses, then subtracting the defender's defense value. For example, if a Muton on high ground attacks a soldier in full cover (80 aim + 20 high ground bonus - 40 full cover defense), there's a 60% chance of getting hit. that is a pretty high %, which is normal for especially since they have the high ground bonus. this game is hard you are going to get hit and lose soldiers because the enemy rolled better dice than you. if you want to decrease your chance of getting hit use smoke grenades and or hunker down. also equipping higher tier armor and medals also increases defense a little.

[ImperialForce9]

Originally posted by robin:

the chance to get hit is never 0. It's calculated by adding the attacker's stats and bonuses, then subtracting the defender's defense value. For example, if a Muton on high ground attacks a soldier in full cover (80 aim + 20 high ground bonus - 40 full cover defense), there's a 60% chance of getting hit. that is a pretty high %, which is normal for especially since they have the high ground bonus. this game is hard you are going to get hit and lose soldiers because the enemy rolled better dice than you. if you want to decrease your chance of getting hit use smoke grenades and or hunker down. also equipping higher tier armor and medals also increases defense a little.

But what explains Thin Men and Sectoids doing 6-9 critical damage on my guys?

[robin]

sectoids and thin men have a base critical chance of 10%. so even in full cover and in smoke. there is a small chance to get hit by a crit.

[ImperialForce9]

Originally posted by robin:

sectoids and thin men have a base critical chance of 10%. so even in full cover and in smoke. there is a small chance to get hit by a crit.

Even in full cover and smoke I get iced by 9 damage

[Emzi C]

I usually do an estimation that if I can't kill a pod in one go, then get out of their sight and let them come or re-estimate next turn. Double-shots help a lot (hit-n-run and close encounter). Also sometimes I send a scout on a half run to reveal enemies for my snipers, they do what they can do and the scout trots back out of their sight.

Trying to explain probabilities is a futile attempt. I have "Perfect Information" enabled in Second Wave and it shows their percentage (as well as mine on each shot) - so, these damn aliens can hit me with < 10% probability and my guys sometimes can't hit with > 70 :|

Playing on Impossible now, Long War, but not the Ironman - I'm not that crazy :D

[BitingWind]

My view of the hit chances are: 95-100 expect a hit if not...then you will get extreme urge to take a sledgehammer and hit your device as hard as you can, 90-95 pretty good chance not 100, but almost always a hit, 80-90 be on guard for a miss, but the odds are kind of in your favor, 70-80 be on a stronger guard for a miss the odds are not quite in your favor anymore you better have a backup plan for that miss, 60-70 decent chance but you are rolling the dice. 50-60 this either really good if you are playing with rookies or you are in a rough spot and this is the best you can get, 40-50 typical rookie yeah expect a miss, but enjoy the rare hits that happen occasionally, 30-40 you are trying to snipe with a shotgun again or you got some crappy aim, 10-30 you are surrounded by enemies and this is your last and only chance to save your squad or you want to waste your ammo either way your soldier is gonna be missing that shot almost always, 0-10......why did you even consider taking that shot?



But seriously, yeah, those moments happen and they are not fair whether it is happening to your opponent or to you.

[DarkH]

Xcom accounts for several factors, from weapon type, armour, cover, sight and high/low ground, all units benefit of those positive and negative stats.

Quick recap Shotguns and Heavy Riffles immensely benefit from close range, Riffles and pistols can be good from close and mid range, snipers until they have Squad sight and Dam good Ground they suck as hard as a normal riffle for long range.

Enemies start with Plasma pistols 2 to 4 dmg base with crits to 6 (exclusive to sectoids);
Then Light plasma riffles 4 to 6 dmg with crits from 7 to 9 and adding 10% Aim on top of their current Aim;
Then Plasma riffles 6 to 8 dmg with crits 10-12 that start to appear with Mutons and Heavy Floaters;
And finally Elite Mutons with Heavy Plasma 8 to 10 dmg with crits 13 to 15.

In those 4 stages we are meant to use next tier armor, but for resource management sake players are challenged to endure.
Depending on team formation there are normally at least 2 exposed allied units enemies those are advised to have the suitable tier armor. (I suggest avoiding having only 1 exposed unit unless you want to see the AI clearing the cover and execute the target).

Also keep in mind from Classic difficulty and upwards, enemy armor quality considerably directly affects soldiers Aim for the first shots, so consider using nades to remove that buff before closing in also keep in mind whose enemies are being buffed by (blood call, mind meld) and which of your units are affected by (poison, psy influence, these affect Aim, meanwhile wounded affects will same applies to enemies).

Remember Rookies/Squaddies have low stats so depending on the role you want to use them for consider equipping scopes, nades, or vests/chitting plates. (Though for evident reasons they won't perform as well as veteran units without scopes or vests)
Also remember to use supressing fire on the unit that as the highest probability to attack your vulnerable units, it's a -30 Aim debuff that either supports or heavies can abuse.

Consider using blind spots rather than just plain full cover, blind spots are the best protection and can ultimately force the enemy to move into sight (preferentially forcing the enemy to dash (using the 2 actions on movement)).

To finish besides restating the obivous to exploit enemy low will/panicked units, ("They are trying to fall back!"), becareful of baits, the Ai doesn't often fall back to empty zones of the map and there is an advantage to get first contact on enemy phase.

Oh btw double-check the vector of attack, sometimes having full-cover one way is worse than the other, besides witnessing the actually difference i can't really explain it, it's like the cover gets a higher chance of influence or something... who knows.

[White Rice]

Welcome to the X-COM experience.

[ImperialForce9]

Originally posted by DarkH:

Xcom accounts for several factors, from weapon type, armour, cover, sight and high/low ground, all units benefit of those positive and negative stats.

Remember Rookies/Squaddies have low stats so depending on the role you want to use them for consider equipping scopes, nades, or vests/chitting plates. (Though for evident reasons they won't perform as well as veteran units without scopes or vests)
Also remember to use supressing fire on the unit that as the highest probability to attack your vulnerable units, it's a -30 Aim debuff that either supports or heavies can abuse.

Consider using blind spots rather than just plain full cover, blind spots are the best protection and can ultimately force the enemy to move into sight (preferentially forcing the enemy to dash (using the 2 actions on movement)).

To finish besides restating the obivous to exploit enemy low will/panicked units, ("They are trying to fall back!"), becareful of baits, the Ai doesn't often fall back to empty zones of the map and there is an advantage to get first contact on enemy phase.

Is it alright I have most of the squad equipped with scopes? Or should I bring more grenades and not worry too much about weapon fragments?
Unfortunately in the current Hard campaign I'm playing, I've been taking quite a number of losses and I only have 2 supports while have a 4-5 snipers, 2 heavies, and 1 assault. Currently on a missions where I have 4 snipers, 2 heavies because everyone else is injured.

I didn't know enemies had "will", I thought the AI fell back if it was outnumbered.

I thought I could try and rush Light Plasma Rifle after interrogating Muton but after unlocking it, I dont have enough money to afford it, I know that I can try and capture more aliens with LPR's but usually the one's that have are the ones that willingly stay the furthest out of range of my dedicated Assault with Zapper tool. Should I bring 2 people with the capture tools on UFO's downed missions?
Since I can't afford LPR's or plasma weaponry in general, should I try and get Laser weaponry instead?

[szmind]

Originally posted by ImperialForce9:

But what explains Thin Men and Sectoids doing 6-9 critical damage on my guys?

Damage is independent of the type of cover. Cover only determines the hit chance, not the damage done. So you can get critically hit when behind a cover and the damage is calculated regardless of the cover type.

[Schraube]

Originally posted by ImperialForce9:

Trying to pIay on Hard. I try and do the right things, I get my guy to flank an enemy while being in full cover, kill that enemy.Then a different one just does 6 damage to them outright even though my guy was in full cover?

Congrats; you likely have discovered the ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ that are classic mode thin men!
85% aim, 20% crit, with a damage range of 4-6 .

The enemies use the same weapons you do for the most part; or rather, they use the same plasma-weapons you'll eventually unlock.

On normal and below, thin men use plasma pistols, which deal 2-4 damage and can't crit.
On classic or higher, however, Thin Men get light plasma-rifles , which have a damage range from 4-6 , as well as critical damage range from 7-9.
But that's not all! Light Plasma rifles also grant 10 aim and crit. On Veteran, enemies also get another 10 aim and crit, and thin men have a natural 65 aim.

This means at base, thin men on classic have 85 aim and 20 crit .

Cover reduces aim by either 40 or 20, depending on whether it is full or not. That means classic Thin Mints have aim ranging from 45 to 65, i.e more than half their shots are likely to hit.

I never managed to find some documentation about how damage range works, so I assume the damage rolls are weighed equally; in other words, I believe the chance to roll 4 damage is the same as 6 damage.

This leads us to another fun calculation: If we assume that damage rolls are weighted equally, and according to the wiki, crits are an extra roll that happen on a successful hit, there are 6 possible damage outcomes for thin mints: 4,5,6, 4 with crit, 5 with crit, 6 with crit. Of these six outcomes, anything but 4 damage without a crit is deadly to soldiers below the rank of captain, as they usually have 5 health or less for most classes. That means the odds of your guys getting oneshot on a hit in the first ~2 months are 0.33*0.2*3 + 0.33*0.8*2 = 0.726, or 72.6 %.

Now we multiply this with the actual odds of a hit - 45% or 65%, depending on type of cover - and we get a total chance of ~33% or ~47% of someone dying everytime a thin men shoots , at least for non-mechanized soldiers below the rank of captain without any armor upgrades.


This is, I believe, the only such absurd damage spike in the game, contributing majorly to a very lopsided difficulty curve centered on the early game; I never crunched the numbers, but from what my playthroughs feel like enemy damage after this improves slower then your soldiers durability (health gain from promotions + armor upgrades, while floaters and mutons in their first month of appearing still use LPR), and by the time heavy plasma and sectopods roll around, you usually have a 6 man squad capable of alpha striking pods to their doom (though it remains true that most of your guys will rarely be able to survive more than one shot, though at least they should be able to survive a hit lol).

Tl;DR: Thin Men are insane.

[ImperialForce9]

Originally posted by Schraube:

Originally posted by ImperialForce9:

Trying to pIay on Hard. I try and do the right things, I get my guy to flank an enemy while being in full cover, kill that enemy.Then a different one just does 6 damage to them outright even though my guy was in full cover?

Congrats; you likely have discovered the ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ that are classic mode thin men!
85% aim, 20% crit, with a damage range of 4-6 .

The enemies use the same weapons you do for the most part; or rather, they use the same plasma-weapons you'll eventually unlock.

On normal and below, thin men use plasma pistols, which deal 2-4 damage and can't crit.
On classic or higher, however, Thin Men get light plasma-rifles , which have a damage range from 4-6 , as well as critical damage range from 7-9.
But that's not all! Light Plasma rifles also grant 10 aim and crit. On Veteran, enemies also get another 10 aim and crit, and thin men have a natural 65 aim.

This means at base, thin men on classic have 85 aim and 20 crit .

Cover reduces aim by either 40 or 20, depending on whether it is full or not. That means classic Thin Mints have aim ranging from 45 to 65, i.e more than half their shots are likely to hit.

I never managed to find some documentation about how damage range works, so I assume the damage rolls are weighed equally; in other words, I believe the chance to roll 4 damage is the same as 6 damage.

This leads us to another fun calculation: If we assume that damage rolls are weighted equally, and according to the wiki, crits are an extra roll that happen on a successful hit, there are 6 possible damage outcomes for thin mints: 4,5,6, 4 with crit, 5 with crit, 6 with crit. Of these six outcomes, anything but 4 damage without a crit is deadly to soldiers below the rank of captain, as they usually have 5 health or less for most classes. That means the odds of your guys getting oneshot on a hit in the first ~2 months are 0.33*0.2*3 + 0.33*0.8*2 = 0.726, or 72.6 %.

Now we multiply this with the actual odds of a hit - 45% or 65%, depending on type of cover - and we get a total chance of ~33% or ~47% of someone dying everytime a thin men shoots , at least for non-mechanized soldiers below the rank of captain without any armor upgrades.


This is, I believe, the only such absurd damage spike in the game, contributing majorly to a very lopsided difficulty curve centered on the early game; I never crunched the numbers, but from what my playthroughs feel like enemy damage after this improves slower then your soldiers durability (health gain from promotions + armor upgrades, while floaters and mutons in their first month of appearing still use LPR), and by the time heavy plasma and sectopods roll around, you usually have a 6 man squad capable of alpha striking pods to their doom (though it remains true that most of your guys will rarely be able to survive more than one shot, though at least they should be able to survive a hit lol).

Tl;DR: Thin Men are insane.

The weird part is that in my playthrough I do save scum or else I'd end up with no soldiers at all to deploy. Even though people say that crit chance is 10-20% from what you said. but the thing is I've had soo many situations where the enemy just kept getting 6 crits, 9 crit. It's ridiculous and I can't make heads or tails of it as it's entirely bloody random where even tryna hide behind Full Cover doesn't mean ♥♥♥♥ against crits.

[Schraube]

Originally posted by ImperialForce9:

even tryna hide behind Full Cover doesn't mean ♥♥♥♥ against crits.

Being flanked raises critchance by 50%, but aside from possibly preventing a flank, cover does indeed do nothing to affect critchance or damage. It only affects aim.

[zoutzakje]

Don't trigger any new alien groups unnecessarily. Use Overwatch a lot. Try to Alpha Strike any aliens you encounter (kill them before they get a chance to do anything). Use grenades and rockets galore. Give everybody a Scope once you get a second item slot.
You'll be kicking this game's butt in no time.

[Max]

In this game, hard is hard, incredible hard. But you can still manage to win in IMPOSSIBLE difficulty. Only if you need to know this game very well.