Aim %

[Charlemagne]

Can the aim percentage you get when targeting an alien be trusted as a reliable chance, or are there additional hidden factors? The number of hits you get based on the % seems quite low. For example, say you are in need of taking 50% shots. I know I know 50% can be considered a "low" chance, but in practice sometimes that's all you can get because any attempt to get into a better position is too risky.

So your six guys fire shots that are around 50%. Some might be 60% others 40% but roughly 50%. All six fail. Come the next turn, the six of them fail again, or perhaps just one of them hits. OK mathematically, the chances of failing six 50% "dice rolls" is less than 2%. It should be something rare indeed, something to tell your buddies about. "Hey, you won't believe, today in the game I had 6 guys firing with 50% chance each and all six missed!" "No way! That's REALLY bad luck!" "Happened to me last month. It really sucks."

However, as I think most of you agree, this is something that happens very often. I think that is why some people say that anything less than 100% hit chance is too risky. So, maybe there are hidden factors that make that 50% really a 16%? Or, the game cheats shamelessly?

[asd]

Actually it can be higher than what is shown. At least on easy and normal, you get a bonus after every time you miss a shot.

[Baby_Cookie[WOLF]]

see
you answer the questio yourself by using math for this

chances in match are a vague representation ( note the word vague )
they are a representation and in the overall scheme it probably means something, but whenever you calculate chance it's no more then a "representation" and never a fact

true chance simply can"t be calculated

50% hit miss rate 6 times in a row means as much as you getting 6 misses or 6 hits or anythign in between and fixating a number on the concept of "true" chance can"t be done

the closest definition you can get to it is "shrodingers cat" it's all chances and no chances at the same time until the dice is rolled ( then afterwards you can make a conclusion but only afterwards )




that said - this is a programm and not "true" chance, there is some calculation to it
and hidden factors

for instanc if you miss 4 shots in a row the game iwll notice, take pitty and give you a hit on the fifth
( i have no exact details but it's safe to say the game will help you after it beats you in the face for a bit :p )

so follow it as a rough estimation
70 - 80 is worth taking
it doesn't mean anything as it will still miss if the game likes to be a ♥♥♥♥ ( which it does a lot ) but none the less, the screwing will be an abbysmal small amount less then 50 - 60
( other wise theri'd be not programming reason to dispay numbers :) )

(jsut to prove the pitty effect
i had a situation in which
- a 90% shotgun missed ( yeah that controller suddenly had an urge to fly :p )
- the next on in line was a pistol support ( cause i forgot to switch like an idiot ^^ ) wtih 30%
- it was a critkill

..... jsut saying :p

to be safe

get a squadsighted elevated sniper with scope
get shotgunners with run and gun
and a support with smoke to protect them assaults ( up until you can deck them out with ghostarmor )
that would give you max hitchances most of the time

[Charlemagne]

I know probabilities, I have analyzed them since my days of boardgaming. I know "dice have no memory" and all that. To say that anything can happen means nothing, else nobody would bother in studying probabilities. However the mere fact that we base our choice on overwatching if the chance is 15%, and shooting if the chance is 80%, means we are leaning on probability. A 15% chance might hit, it's more or less like getting '1' on a six-sided die. An 80% might fail, 1-in-5 chance of that happening. But, if the % is true, you can expect that more or less 4 out of 5 times you take an 80% shot will hit. Of course, that is not written, you might get zero hits on 5 rolls, you might get 5 out of 5, or anything in between but the curve of probability will tend to be around the 4 out of 5. If you roll 100 times, there is a very good chance that your hits will not be very far from 80.

My point is not that failing six 50% attacks in a row can't happen. I'm a witness that it happens. However, statistics say that should happen only around 1.5% of the time. If you play 100 turns in which six soldiers fire with 50% chance, in 98.5% of those turns the soldiers will get some hits. In fact, the soldiers should get about 50% of those 600 dice rolls.

However, I have noticed, empirically I will admit but I think I might start writing it down, that my soldiers miss a lot more than one would expect from the %. Six soldiers failing 50% shots is not a rarity. It happens rather often in fact. So this is why I believe there must be hidden factors beyond the % aim you see on the screen. Maybe the program cheats? You say that it cheats in favor of the player, but maybe also against, maybe if the program feels you are doing too good it lowers your chances for a couple of turns? Just to bring you down a notch, or to even the field for the aliens.

[SamBC]

Originally posted by Charlemagne:

I know probabilities, I have analyzed them since my days of boardgaming. I know "dice have no memory" and all that. To say that anything can happen means nothing, else nobody would bother in studying probabilities. However the mere fact that we base our choice on overwatching if the chance is 15%, and shooting if the chance is 80%, means we are leaning on probability. A 15% chance might hit, it's more or less like getting '1' on a six-sided die. An 80% might fail, 1-in-5 chance of that happening. But, if the % is true, you can expect that more or less 4 out of 5 times you take an 80% shot will hit. Of course, that is not written, you might get zero hits on 5 rolls, you might get 5 out of 5, or anything in between but the curve of probability will tend to be around the 4 out of 5. If you roll 100 times, there is a very good chance that your hits will not be very far from 80.

My point is not that failing six 50% attacks in a row can't happen. I'm a witness that it happens. However, statistics say that should happen only around 1.5% of the time. If you play 100 turns in which six soldiers fire with 50% chance, in 98.5% of those turns the soldiers will get some hits. In fact, the soldiers should get about 50% of those 600 dice rolls.

However, I have noticed, empirically I will admit but I think I might start writing it down, that my soldiers miss a lot more than one would expect from the %. Six soldiers failing 50% shots is not a rarity. It happens rather often in fact. So this is why I believe there must be hidden factors beyond the % aim you see on the screen. Maybe the program cheats? You say that it cheats in favor of the player, but maybe also against, maybe if the program feels you are doing too good it lowers your chances for a couple of turns? Just to bring you down a notch, or to even the field for the aliens.

The code has actually been pulled apart in this case. There is no such hidden factor against the player. And people who have kept records of a very large number of shots have found them to be accurate.

What you experience is either a run of bad luck (which happens), or - more likely - a perfectly natural perception bias.

[Charlemagne]

Originally posted by SamBC:

Originally posted by Charlemagne:

I know probabilities, I have analyzed them since my days of boardgaming. I know "dice have no memory" and all that. To say that anything can happen means nothing, else nobody would bother in studying probabilities. However the mere fact that we base our choice on overwatching if the chance is 15%, and shooting if the chance is 80%, means we are leaning on probability. A 15% chance might hit, it's more or less like getting '1' on a six-sided die. An 80% might fail, 1-in-5 chance of that happening. But, if the % is true, you can expect that more or less 4 out of 5 times you take an 80% shot will hit. Of course, that is not written, you might get zero hits on 5 rolls, you might get 5 out of 5, or anything in between but the curve of probability will tend to be around the 4 out of 5. If you roll 100 times, there is a very good chance that your hits will not be very far from 80.

My point is not that failing six 50% attacks in a row can't happen. I'm a witness that it happens. However, statistics say that should happen only around 1.5% of the time. If you play 100 turns in which six soldiers fire with 50% chance, in 98.5% of those turns the soldiers will get some hits. In fact, the soldiers should get about 50% of those 600 dice rolls.

However, I have noticed, empirically I will admit but I think I might start writing it down, that my soldiers miss a lot more than one would expect from the %. Six soldiers failing 50% shots is not a rarity. It happens rather often in fact. So this is why I believe there must be hidden factors beyond the % aim you see on the screen. Maybe the program cheats? You say that it cheats in favor of the player, but maybe also against, maybe if the program feels you are doing too good it lowers your chances for a couple of turns? Just to bring you down a notch, or to even the field for the aliens.

The code has actually been pulled apart in this case. There is no such hidden factor against the player. And people who have kept records of a very large number of shots have found them to be accurate.

What you experience is either a run of bad luck (which happens), or - more likely - a perfectly natural perception bias.

Well, my bad luck is proverbial. :-) Murphy's law is a constant for me.

[Baby_Cookie[WOLF]]

Originally posted by Charlemagne:

Originally posted by SamBC:

The code has actually been pulled apart in this case. There is no such hidden factor against the player. And people who have kept records of a very large number of shots have found them to be accurate.

What you experience is either a run of bad luck (which happens), or - more likely - a perfectly natural perception bias.

Well, my bad luck is proverbial. :-) Murphy's law is a constant for me.

in that case we'd best follow that basic guide strat
100% squad sight snipers ( because even xcom can not deny the fact it claims 100% - that woulc be contradicting itself ant thus it always hits :p )

and close range assaults with anything in the shotgun tier :)

personally i find pointblanking all and any pretty boring and this game is just about pissing you of with "luck" for a large portion so why fight against it ( but that's prefference :p )

[asd]

Originally posted by Charlemagne:

Originally posted by SamBC:

The code has actually been pulled apart in this case. There is no such hidden factor against the player. And people who have kept records of a very large number of shots have found them to be accurate.

What you experience is either a run of bad luck (which happens), or - more likely - a perfectly natural perception bias.

Well, my bad luck is proverbial. :-) Murphy's law is a constant for me.

Murphy's Law doesn't mean that something bad will happen. What it means is whatever can happen will happen. And that sounded just fine with us.

[Charlemagne]

Originally posted by Tabus:

Originally posted by Charlemagne:

Well, my bad luck is proverbial. :-) Murphy's law is a constant for me.

Murphy's Law doesn't mean that something bad will happen. What it means is whatever can happen will happen. And that sounded just fine with us.

Murphy's law is typically stated as: Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong.

[Milk]

Why did you take all of those low percentage shots when you could've thrown a grenade and removed the cover? Or just movedd up to get better hit chances?

Those are the real questions.

[Charlemagne]

Originally posted by Angry Floof:

Why did you take all of those low percentage shots when you could've thrown a grenade and removed the cover? Or just movedd up to get better hit chances?

Those are the real questions.

I know you can use nades and remove cover. However, against 5 or 6 thin men in cover in a closed space, some up in the rafters, with some more hidden from view there's only so much you can do. Moving up to throwing distance or moving up to flank one of them while leaving your soldier exposed to their flanking, not good ideas. You got to thin them out first.

[Milk]

Originally posted by Charlemagne:

I know you can use nades and remove cover. However, against 5 or 6 thin men in cover in a closed space

>closed space
>5 or 6

1 grenade. Hahaha! 2 grenade. Hahaha!

[Charlemagne]

Originally posted by Angry Floof:

Originally posted by Charlemagne:

I know you can use nades and remove cover. However, against 5 or 6 thin men in cover in a closed space

>closed space
>5 or 6

1 grenade. Hahaha! 2 grenade. Hahaha!

Come now. If they were all bunched up of course a grenade will take them all. I mean closed space, that I can't send my guys in a wide flanking maneuver in a forest. I mean we're inside a warehouse or something, or in a cemetery for example, and there's nowhere to outmanuever. But the aliens are not bunched. Sending a guy to try to flank one alien is likely to leave him exposed. So, it's shootout like or not.

Anyway, thanks, I have it clear now that the aim % is in fact real and that my impression is caused either by my sticky malignant virtual dice, i.e. bad luck, or perception bias. However, the example I gave did happen to me (6 guys shooting at chances around 50% and none hit, two turns in a row).

[dixiechow]

I just sort of depend on guts and gile to get me through. Works for me. I usuall play on normal.

[Stardustfire]

u play only normal? than u cant talk here about chances. game cheats with hit chances to player favour on normal. come back when u played classic where the game stops cheat for the player.

[Stalectos]

Originally posted by Angry Floof:

Originally posted by Charlemagne:

I know you can use nades and remove cover. However, against 5 or 6 thin men in cover in a closed space

>closed space
>5 or 6

1 grenade. Hahaha! 2 grenade. Hahaha!

well the op said they where thin men which last i checked on lower difficulties die to one grenade thus denying you weapon fragments for killing them if you use a grenade. i mean its not the most horrible penalty in the world (plenty more weapon fragments to be had later) but still an incentive to try for the shots. of course on classic and higher pretty sure even sectoids can survive a grenade and then all excuses go out the window (other than they are too spread out).