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I'd say at least 3 years.
It depends on this game's success.
When this game takes off, it'll be the opposite of what happened to Andromeda. BioWare cancelled the Andromeda expansion because of the staggering hatred that the game received.
That won't happen with Starfield. When Bethesda sees victory, they will ride it into the ground.
Expect expansions.
A good template would be Assassin's Creed: Valhalla. It was released in November of 2020 and it was followed by two years of post-game support, including three expansions. The last expansion releasing in March, 2022.
Expect a similar strategy from Bethesda, though not as grand.
No doubt that Bethesda would love to follow in Ubisoft Montreal's footsteps with this game. At least two years of post-game support, followed by a year of Scrolls announcements.
still remember waiting for that years E3 showcase, since there was lot of rumors going on about a big Bethesda announcement. We were all excited about maybe, after years and years of speculation, to finally get an officially reveal of their long awaited next open world RPG: Starfield.
Well... They didn't. We got Failout 76 instead and it's been 5 years since then. At least Starfield is finally releasing in a couple of months. Fingers crossed and all.
After that they'll be busy with Official Patches and the expansion for the next year or two. Add couple of more years if Starfield turns out to be a stellar success sand a SKyrim level money maker. They'll churn out as much extra content as the market will bear.
Then set aside a year or two as they try to come up with Creation ClLub 2.0 or some other way to ensure constant revenue stream from macro transactions, and then, maybe after all that, they'll start moving the bulk of their workforce to work on TES6 proper. At that point it'll stilt lake them three or four years to get it done. So yeah... 2030 by the earliest.
The only thing, that will change that, is if Microsoft intervenes and tells them to get on with it. That they do not want to see their IP rotting on the wine. But even then, I doubt it will make a difference for TES6. As long as ESO makes money, they will let Bethesda do things at their own pace. Microsoft might take Fallout from them and assign it to another studio. Otherwise, don't' expect to see Fallout 5 until 2040.
best fallout game i ever played (didnt play the first 2) was new vegas.
best elder scrolls game (i have played all of them other than battle spire and the weird mobile game) is hands down daggerfall. i want ES6 to be more daggerfall and/or oblivion and less skyrim (i didnt like how clunky morrowind felt and the early 3D art was not very appealing to me but i like watching people play it and its armor system is what i wish later entries had.)