Is Steam Deck Calculator getting less accurate?

[BlueRobin]

Since Valve doubled their production, I've seen some great jumps on https://getmydeck.ingenhaag.dev/ for my order in the UK queue - 256gb model, which is awesome.

However, in the same few weeks, the Steam Deck Calculator (https://steam-deck-calculator.web.app/), using the Preorder spreadsheet, has actually seen my estimate delayed another couple of weeks, pushing me from November to December.

I was expecting it to take a few weeks for the higher production rate to have a bearing on the estimates for my order, but I was definitely expecting the calculator's results to be moving in the other direction if moving at all, bringing my hopeful order sooner rather than later.

Is the calculator less accurate as we move out of Day-1 orders? Is it not calibrated to account for greater production? Or do I just have to face the bitter, but not catastrophic, reality that my wait has a little bit extra to go?

[Jâbbérwôkkï]

The Calculator is a "guesstimate", not an actual. Therefore, by nature, it can not give you anything more than a "window" of expected availability. Too many people take it as exact, when in fact, it is a 3rd party tracking system, not Valve actual giving you the information. Meaning They don't actually know, & as production has increased. it's a given that deliveries will too.

[BlueRobin]

Originally posted by Jâbbérwôkkï:

The Calculator is a "guesstimate", not an actual. Therefore, by nature, it can not give you anything more than a "window" of expected availability. Too many people take it as exact, when in fact, it is a 3rd party tracking system, not Valve actual giving you the information. Meaning They don't actually know, & as production has increased. it's a given that deliveries will too.

Absolutely, and I'm very much taking it as a "best guess". I'm not expecting it to be a totally faithful and accurate representation of the reality, but it's definitely a better resource than me just guessing for myself. So, I'm not so much pinning my expectations on the precise date it's giving me, I'm more wondering if the movement to a later estimate I'm getting is likely an indication of greater delays, or if the calculator struggling to account for increased production/ post-Day-1 orders might be a factor.

[PopinFRESH]

Yep, I don't think they've refactored given the changes in production ramp among other things.

It supports almost any date, but is most accurate for the first day of orders and the 512GB model due to that being where most of the sample data is

[Have Some Die]

I clicked on the first link (thanks by the way, new to that one) and it opened fine, Steam app opened my browser as usual. The second link (been there before already) refuses to open, Valve says it’s flagged as suspicious. Anyone know what the deal is?

[BlueRobin]

Originally posted by Have Some Die:

I clicked on the first link (thanks by the way, new to that one) and it opened fine, Steam app opened my browser as usual. The second link (been there before already) refuses to open, Valve says it’s flagged as suspicious. Anyone know what the deal is?

Yikes! I hadn't noticed that before! That's concerning.

[Gabriel Angelos]

Getmydeck is far more accurate. According to the Steam deck calculator I should have got my email today

[badboyec24]

I'm looking at a July 25th order date if preorders are moving at the rate they are, I'm at 70.69% the way there after todays emails a jump of 16% from the July 14th emails.

My results: https://getmydeck.ingenhaag.dev/s/US/256/1626643043

[MJ711]

My:
Estimated Order Date: Mon May 20 2058
13089 day(s) 19 hour(s) 51 minute(s) 16 second(s)

so why do people use this again ???

[BlueRobin]

Originally posted by MJ711:

My:
Estimated Order Date: Mon May 20 2058
13089 day(s) 19 hour(s) 51 minute(s) 16 second(s)

so why do people use this again ???

I'm going to use my great psychic abilities and say that you clicked on the Abyzma button, but didn't scroll down to read the message:

"Abyzma's method randomly selects a date within your quarter"

When your "quarter" is After Q3 - that's interpreted as starting in October 2022, and ending...I'm going to guess turn of the century is what the creator programmed it for since I've only seen results starting with a year 20XX.

[MJ711]

Originally posted by RobinRedwing:

Originally posted by MJ711:

My:
Estimated Order Date: Mon May 20 2058
13089 day(s) 19 hour(s) 51 minute(s) 16 second(s)

so why do people use this again ???

I'm going to use my great psychic abilities and say that you clicked on the Abyzma button, but didn't scroll down to read the message:

"Abyzma's method randomly selects a date within your quarter"

When your "quarter" is After Q3 - that's interpreted as starting in October 2022, and ending...I'm going to guess turn of the century is what the creator programmed it for since I've only seen results starting with a year 20XX.

now thats funny.


mooV2 (Tue Jul 19 2022)
Estimated Order Date: Mon Aug 15 2022
27 day(s) 19 hour(s) 43 minute(s) 55 second(s)

[BlueRobin]

Originally posted by MJ711:

Originally posted by RobinRedwing:

I'm going to use my great psychic abilities and say that you clicked on the Abyzma button, but didn't scroll down to read the message:

"Abyzma's method randomly selects a date within your quarter"

When your "quarter" is After Q3 - that's interpreted as starting in October 2022, and ending...I'm going to guess turn of the century is what the creator programmed it for since I've only seen results starting with a year 20XX.

now thats funny.


mooV2 (Tue Jul 19 2022)
Estimated Order Date: Mon Aug 15 2022
27 day(s) 19 hour(s) 43 minute(s) 55 second(s)

Nice, that's more like it! Looks like just 4 weeks to go for you. If the calculator is off, which I'm hoping it is, you might even get yours significantly sooner.

[Have Some Die]

Originally posted by RobinRedwing:

Originally posted by Have Some Die:

I clicked on the first link (thanks by the way, new to that one) and it opened fine, Steam app opened my browser as usual. The second link (been there before already) refuses to open, Valve says it’s flagged as suspicious. Anyone know what the deal is?

Yikes! I hadn't noticed that before! That's concerning.

Keep forgetting to come back to tell you I figured out the problem with your link. It attempted to include the parentheses and comma, remove that and it should work.

Trying not to get too excited, but based on this data I believe I’ll be getting my email tomorrow:
https://getmydeck.ingenhaag.dev/s/US/512/1626698441
That tracks with Valve’s updated estimates that everyone will get theirs by the end of the year.

[BlueRobin]

Originally posted by Have Some Die:

Originally posted by RobinRedwing:

Yikes! I hadn't noticed that before! That's concerning.

Keep forgetting to come back to tell you I figured out the problem with your link. It attempted to include the parentheses and comma, remove that and it should work.

Trying not to get too excited, but based on this data I believe I’ll be getting my email tomorrow:
https://getmydeck.ingenhaag.dev/s/US/512/1626698441
That tracks with Valve’s updated estimates that everyone will get theirs by the end of the year.

Ah, nice catch! Good luck tomorrow! I'm still waiting on my own, but Valve very kindly bumped me from After Q3 to Q3, so I'm pretty happy to wait a couple of months.