Whats going on with catch percentages?

[kl250d]

It feels like the percentage display isnt accuracte as I find myself very, very frequently on the sides of impossible odds.

There is only so many times that i can get a string of 6+ fails with a 50% catch rate before it gets suspicious. Its not even like the other half the time I'm catching instantly. Most of the time when there is a 50% chance shown it takes 3-4 attempts.

I'm just wondering if the percentage even means anything

[Lunacy]

If it says 2% it's probably because the first tick is 6% followed by a 33%. And still seem to catch it on the last sphere you have.

And yeah, had a few 70-80%'s fail like 4-6times in a row on a lv3, RNG be RNG.

[fluffy buny]

i've seen someone claim that pals get "enraged" after you fail two captures against them, which silently lowers the odds of future captures succeeding, so it displays a higher chance than you actually have

take this with a big grain of salt though

[wildbill]

It is random. I mean literally there is a random number generator in the code with something like:
if randomNumber > currentOdds then caught

Look up statistics. This is like a coin flip. Say heads, it is caught, tails it is not. Now flip the coin. Its possible to flip it 10 times and get tails every time, but not very likely.

[kl250d]

Originally posted by wildbill:

It is random. I mean literally there is a random number generator in the code with something like:
if randomNumber > currentOdds then caught

Look up statistics. This is like a coin flip. Say heads, it is caught, tails it is not. Now flip the coin. Its possible to flip it 10 times and get tails every time, but not very likely.

Yes it is possible, but very unlikely, and very unlikely to happen multiple times over and over again. So statistically insignificant that i shouldn't be able to have any confidence that when i play again this afternoon that it'll happen again but i can almost guarantee that it'll happen again.

I can't believe there is such a low tier understanding of probability with online internet strangers. Just because something has a chance of happening doesn't mean it will, otherwise we'd all have won the lottery millions by now

[wildbill]

Originally posted by kl250d:

Originally posted by wildbill:

It is random. I mean literally there is a random number generator in the code with something like:
if randomNumber > currentOdds then caught

Look up statistics. This is like a coin flip. Say heads, it is caught, tails it is not. Now flip the coin. Its possible to flip it 10 times and get tails every time, but not very likely.

Yes it is possible, but very unlikely, and very unlikely to happen multiple times over and over again. So statistically insignificant that i shouldn't be able to have any confidence that when i play again this afternoon that it'll happen again but i can almost guarantee that it'll happen again.

I can't believe there is such a low tier understanding of probability with online internet strangers. Just because something has a chance of happening doesn't mean it will, otherwise we'd all have won the lottery millions by now

Feels more like you don't understand probability. I actually took a statistics class in college. I'm no expert, but have a general understanding of probabilities and how they work.

What I'm seeing in game is totally within the boundaries of pure random chance. Now maybe you are not seeing the same thing as me.

BTW, I've actually coded mods for Minecraft and used random number to generate random outcomes of some event. You weight the odds depending on several factors. I can think of at least 3 that improve the odds of a catch.

[kl250d]

Originally posted by wildbill:

Originally posted by kl250d:

Yes it is possible, but very unlikely, and very unlikely to happen multiple times over and over again. So statistically insignificant that i shouldn't be able to have any confidence that when i play again this afternoon that it'll happen again but i can almost guarantee that it'll happen again.

I can't believe there is such a low tier understanding of probability with online internet strangers. Just because something has a chance of happening doesn't mean it will, otherwise we'd all have won the lottery millions by now

Feels more like you don't understand probability. I actually took a statistics class in college. I'm no expert, but have a general understanding of probabilities and how they work.

What I'm seeing in game is totally within the boundaries of pure random chance. Now maybe you are not seeing the same thing as me.

BTW, I've actually coded mods for Minecraft and used random number to generate random outcomes of some event. You weight the odds depending on several factors. I can think of at least 3 that improve the odds of a catch.

Im not claiming that my experience is the same as everyone elses, im saying that missing 5+ 50% chances in a row at least 10 times a day is so insignificant of a possibility that something must be wrong. It happens every day.

Not to mention never needing even 10 balls to catch a 5% chance but to be honest im not complaining about that one but if it was fixed I'd have no issue.

Something in the background is not working

[wildbill]

Originally posted by kl250d:

Originally posted by wildbill:

Feels more like you don't understand probability. I actually took a statistics class in college. I'm no expert, but have a general understanding of probabilities and how they work.

What I'm seeing in game is totally within the boundaries of pure random chance. Now maybe you are not seeing the same thing as me.

BTW, I've actually coded mods for Minecraft and used random number to generate random outcomes of some event. You weight the odds depending on several factors. I can think of at least 3 that improve the odds of a catch.

Im not claiming that my experience is the same as everyone elses, im saying that missing 5+ 50% chances in a row at least 10 times a day is so insignificant of a possibility that something must be wrong. It happens every day.

Not to mention never needing even 10 balls to catch a 5% chance but to be honest im not complaining about that one but if it was fixed I'd have no issue.

Something in the background is not working

Sure, it is early access and there will be bugs, but in general, they can be caught eventually. So watch this video if you want to understand more why and why not you might be catching them:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AdJJu__Wxw&ab_channel=LaserBolt

Name of video is: "Palworld How To 100% CAPTURE PALS All The Time - How Spheres Work (Tips and Tricks)"

[DarkFenix]

Originally posted by CrunchyDaz:

It seems like the percentage displayed is taking into account the Sphere used against the level of Pal its against. It doesn't seem to take into account any sort of species specific resistance to captures.

Would you kindly present evidence that such a hidden factor exists? I mean, you wouldn't make a claim unless you'd done a statistical analysis over 10000+ data points, or directly data mined it from the code... right?

[Grey]

The percentage shown isn't what the rate is. It is how close you will be/are to capturing the pal. So for example when you toss a sphere and it shows 90%, each tick until 100% will have something like a 50/50 chance between progressing to 100% or failing with a standard sphere.

[wildbill]

Originally posted by Grey:

The percentage shown isn't what the rate is. It is how close you will be/are to capturing the pal. So for example when you toss a sphere and it shows 90%, each tick until 100% will have something like a 50/50 chance between progressing to 100% or failing with a standard sphere.

I think what you are saying is it goes up each tick. So like 50%, 70%, 90%, then 100% and caught. So 50% chance to go to 70%, 70% chance to go to 90%, and 90% chance to go to 100%. That would make total sense, although I don't actually know how it works, but would explain why 50% displayed does not result in 50% captures.

[SoloQ]

Gotta use better balls and turn in effigies to get your catch power up. Also try to get the pals life as close to 0 without killing it as you can. Every HP% counts against your catch chance.
If you're after level 30+ pals you should be on yellow or red balls and should have a steady flow of them being crafted. And your catch power should be at lvl 8+.

Even at catch lvl 9 trying to use a blue ball on a sub lvl 5 Pal that's at full health will have a drastically increased failure rate to the point where it can potentially just bounce right off of them because they're too healthy.

Also upgrade your flying/mount Pal to a Beakon/Univolt. You get free shock chances from the electric damage which increases your catch rate. It almost makes it too easy when you do it that way.
I keep a steel spear on me at all times to do minor damage when the Pals health is low so they don't feint.

[kl250d]

Originally posted by SoloQ:

Gotta use better balls and turn in effigies to get your catch power up. Also try to get the pals life as close to 0 without killing it as you can. Every HP% counts against your catch chance.
If you're after level 30+ pals you should be on yellow or red balls and should have a steady flow of them being crafted. And your catch power should be at lvl 8+.

Even at catch lvl 9 trying to use a blue ball on a sub lvl 5 Pal that's at full health will have a drastically increased failure rate to the point where it can potentially just bounce right off of them because they're too healthy.

Also upgrade your flying/mount Pal to a Beakon/Univolt. You get free shock chances from the electric damage which increases your catch rate. It almost makes it too easy when you do it that way.
I keep a steel spear on me at all times to do minor damage when the Pals health is low so they don't feint.

Buddy thats great advice but its not really relevant to the topic this is a conversation about probability

[Gn0m3]

There are 3 "phases" of capture. First phase may show 50%, thats your odds of getting to phase 2. In phase 2 it may say 89%, thats the odds of going to the final phase. Normally by phase 3 you will be somewhere inbetween 93-100%.

In D&D terms, the Pal gets 3 chances to do a saving throw, but each phase increases the threshold that the pal must cross to break free. I hope that helps :)

[awanderingswordsman]

I've literally never seen a third phase. It doesn't happen. Even if the first check is like 2%, it will tick twice. The pal gets two saving throws outside of I guess the check to see if it's deflected but I don't think that uses the same formula since I've had healthy pals with super high rates deflect spheres and bosses with less 1% not deflect.

[Straven]

A good way to enhance your chances at succeeding those catches is to find those green effigies, get enough of them and build that shrine and you can boost your capture rate. Helps more then a bit when I try and catch pals soooo far above the first catch spheres I should be laughed at using but I've succeeded with them a few times.