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Well spotted, I'd missed that mushrooms could go into porridge. Same for skewers, my mind keeps thinking that eggs and mushrooms are on the wrong side of the recipe. It would make so much more sense to have all the vegan ingredients be ingredient 1, and all the animal-derivatives to be ingredient 2, but alas that is not the way it is.
By "non-food production chain" I meant something that didn't end in food, as per the examples I gave...
Yeah, I was surprised at how bad the maths of biscuits turned out. Perhaps a better comparison is Ranch + Skewer compared to Rain Mill + Biscuits. The former can turn 9 Grain and 15 Berries into 50 skewers (by first turning the grain into eggs) in 782 worker seconds. If you use the Ranch for Meat rather than Eggs, it's a little less resource efficient but a little more time efficient. You can actually improve both raw food and time efficiency (at the cost of a little fuel) by first turning the Meat from the Ranch into Jerky and then Skewers, but that's getting overly convoluted. To get 50 biscuits you'd need 20 Grain and 15 Berries, and it would take 882 worker seconds. That's a >40% increase in raw resources and a >10% in production time to produce the same amount of food of the same resolve quality. (All of this is assuming highest rated recipes at every step of the way).
Pickles are excellent in every way, except that they require containers. Those are pretty hard to make requiring an extra blueprint, worker time, and resources.
Traders bring enough flour to make ~60 biscuits at ** efficiency, ~80 pie at *** efficiency, or 160 Pickles at Field-Kitchen efficiency. That means making containers is much less important for the Pickles production-chain than making flour is for the biscuit/pie production chain.
True, if you find containers, then pickles are great. I don't think comparing flour and containers 1:1 is fair though. 1 flour is far easier, quicker and cheaper to make than 1 barrel - it's 0.5 grain rather than planks and ingots.
like what?
My point in my earlier post was that the difficulty of making containers is usually irrelevant - if you don't have the ingredients or the blueprints for containers it is viable to buy them in the quantities that a pickles industry demands. It is also cheaper per pickle to buy ingredients for containers recipes than it is per biscuit/pie to buy ingredients for flour recipes. That makes picking blueprints for containers sometimes justifiable even when you don't have the ingredients for containers, but picking flour recipes when you can't make grain/roots/mushrooms is much less justifiable.
In fact, the main point against blueprints for containers is that they are unnecessary, not that they have narrow conditions for you to be able to work their containers recipes.
When traders bring flour or containers, they bring them in the same quantities as each other. When comparing how many of those you can get from traders, you should compare them at 1:1. I never compared how many you can make on average across different settlements.
The difficulty of making flour versus containers varies across games, and you are never in a spot where the fact that containers are usually harder to make than flour is relevant to any decisions. If I have clay nodes, no Greenhouse, no Small Farm, and no nodes for roots/grain/mushrooms, then it isn't easier to make flour than it is to make containers. If I have no clay, leather, or metal, but plenty of grain, then flour is far easier. However, unless a trader has flour but no containers, it is always easier to buy the containers required for 10 pickles than the flour required for 10 biscuits/pie, no matter how efficient your blueprints for pickles/pie/biscuits are.
The granary's ** pickles recipe also uses 2 waterskins, by the way.
There are bigger imbalances in legendary cornerstones, epic cornerstones, dangerous glade events, blueprints, species, forest mysteries, win conditions (tools vs. resolve), orders, and perks sold by traders.
Sure, if you can trade often enough to bypass most production chains, then the efficiency of production chains drops drastically in importance lol. Do flour and containers cost the same amount to buy? Does each trader always offer containers?
On a slight tangent, I wonder how efficient flour is at generating amber once turned into trade packs? Being able to always sell them as well as having multiple perks that boost them, only requiring a short production chain, and a single common ingredient (on most maps), and the fast production time looks interesting... Is there a list of the base amber price of all resources actually?
On a different note, I've added a table with the top-tier recipe for all resources, as well as a table of all buildings with recipes on the spreadsheet here[docs.google.com]. As always, I'd appreciate any feedback and corrections. I'll post this as a guide in a few days once I'm confident it's mistake free.
There's too much going on for any analysis here, but I feel like I finally have some idea what those "intermediate" goods like pigment are actually for.
The new link is https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18TIz9cqCqA99LVIcFdlJqOS4UXUYe8zEkSb_-ndJ7jE
Buying the pottery for pickles costs 0.087 per pickle. Barrels costs 0.099 per pickle. Waterskins costs 0.093 per pickle unless you use a ** pickles recipe, in which case it's 0.062. Buying flour for *** pie costs 0.15 per pie. Buying flour for any other complex food recipe costs more per unit of food produced.
Not only are containers cheaper per unit of food they produce than flour is, but when traders bring both containers and flour, they bring enough containers to make more food than you can make from the flour they bring. All traders who bring both flour and containers bring equal quantities of each, other than Sahilda who brings more pottery than flour.
Traders are more likely to have containers than flour. If the weights listed on https://ats-mods.github.io/data-wiki/traders/ are correct, and if I'm interpreting them correctly, then the probabilities that each trader has flour (F) and each type of container (P, W, B) are:
Sahilda: 67% F, 55% P, 43% W
Zhorg: 61% F, 48% P, 17% B
Farluf: 62% P, 62% B
Sothur: 59% F, 80% P, 59% B, 59% W
Xiadani: 47% F, 47% P
Vliss, Renwald, Dullahan: No
Xiadani, Vliss, Renwald, and Dullahan are equally likely to have flour as containers. The probability for Zhorg is pretty close. Sahilda and Sothur are more likely to have containers, and Farluf never has Flour, but does have containers. No trader is substantially more likely to have flour than a container of some sort.
My interpretation of the weights is that items are selected sequentially from the trader's pool of possible items, and when an item is selected, it is removed from that pool. The probability that an item is selected at any stage, given it has not yet been selected, is equal to that item's weight divided by the total weight of all items that haven't yet been selected. Each trader brings 12-14 goods, and I assume those three possibilities are equal probability. One of those is always amber, and Sahilda always has mushrooms and eggs. So, for Sahilda, 9-11 non-guaranteed items are selected, and for all other traders, 11-13 items are selected.
Because the probabilities at any stage depend on the weights of all previously selected items, there isn't a simple formula for the probability, so I simulated it. I can share the simulation code if anyone cares and knows the statistical programming language, R.
All trader probabilities [docs.google.com]
I've added more stuff on the spreadsheets: checkboxes to easily sort the tables that have all recipes and all buildings (uncheck them all to return to default order), and the trader prices for all goods. I'm not 100% sure on the latter, some of them feel slightly off and are probably from older versions of the game...
Still, it looks like the ** recipes for Trade Packs and Luxury Packs are excellent. Specially good in terms of value created are using Pigment, Flour, or Scrolls as ingredients. Before P10, even buying these ingredients from Traders, turning them into Packs, and then selling them to the next Trader gives between 2-3 amber per worker minute. Perks that increase pack output, production speed, or double production can massively increase that, to the point that it's profitable even after P10. Of course, it's even better if you don't buy the ingredients but produce them yourself.
On maps where you get pigment for free, or have perks that generate free pigments, getting a building with a trade pack recipe should be a fairly high priority, as it literally triples their value. Otherwise, Small Farm (Grain **)-> Rain Mill (Flour ***) -> Smithy (Trade Packs **) might be one of the easiest to set up and most lucrative production chains. Even using lower efficiency recipes for Flour or Trade Packs it's still good. There are also tons of perks that can boost every stage of this chain multiplicatively for awesome synergy.