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For caravan choice, yes, the bottom choice looks best. I don't think the embarkation bonuses you prefer are bad, but think there are better. I would take tea over wine and would take parts instead of planks and bricks. That should leave enough points for another camp or delivery line.
That said, one or two embarkation points left over is not a big deal. Thinking you have to use them all (which you might not even be doing) is a trap.
The bottom one has an advantage in food and oil, but population is huge.
Either is good, but the bottom one would allow for just a little more materials/embarkation bonuses, like building materials or maybe a delivery line.
I'd take the bottom caravan and probably take the bonuses for population all 3 camps, a plantation or small farm, oil, coal, training gear, amber, and veggies.
Veggies are porridge-able and pickleable. With the species in the bottom caravan, they are clearly better than meat - especially since you have provisions in your caravans.
Gaining lots of reputation isn't important on the sealed biome since it isn't your win condition, and it still increases hostility. That makes blueprints from non-reputation sources stronger, and taking blueprints on embarkation may save you from having to spend a pick on raw food, effectively giving you another blueprint. Embarking with all your camps upgraded and a plantation almost guarantees solving food with your first dangerous glade and lets you pick early blueprints better because you have more information about what other resources you will have access to.
Oil and coal are more important because woodcutting increases hostility. I may be overestimating how important this is, since I haven't played a sealed run on the new biome yet.
It is very easy to buy all the bricks and planks you'll need. The sealed biome is also probably the hardest biome to get brick-locked on, since it has clay plus three sources of bonus clay/stone in sea marrow, reeds, and copper nodes.
Wine delivery line is not worth as much as another camp blueprint plus swapping out planks for coal/oil, in my opinion.
What? Why?
Again, why? Why not 15?
Why limit it at all?
And how did it go?
Terrible blueprint luck and could not get any service building (so even getting the 6 rep from resolve points was slow). However I got the 30 meat + trappers camp order which gave +1 meat, and then I had a bunch of large slickshells in my glades. That, and 3 fertile patches for berries. In the end I just amassed several hundred meat and berries and dumped them on a trader to complete the "100 amber in a single transaction" one instead. Then of course, my standing was already level 3 with 2 settlements, so I just finished 2 forbidden glades and turned in 8 tablets to win.
Strange thing was that my reputation bar was nowhere near being filled (if this was a normal game, it would not have been won lol) and I was just going for enough resolve to not have people leave while I finished my 4 tasks.
Nice!