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Have clear cut goals and focus on those goals. For example, if you have the possibility to produce tools at an efficient rate, focus on making 100+ tools as fast as you can.*
If you have for example the option to produce say cloth at +3 and turning those into packs of building materials at a good rate. Focus on making as many cloth and packs as you can (for trade). Use multiples of the same buildings when focussing on a production line. Also, focus on producing the things you need for a specific goal like an order or glade event. Focus on setting up those production lines as fast as you can.
I don't usually find excess workers besides those things to focus on, but if you do, then you can use those to do things that are not super important and produce random stuff "because you can". Constructing buildings that you dont really need is also in that category.
*(while cutting forest to as many dangerous glades you can access which you will open all at once, and grab all the cashes before the events will cause mayhem when you are ready to do so and estimate you can take the win)
Occasionally I've had a surplus of building materials and pulled them off of production to help in other places.
But... yeah. Focusing on goals and production for specific game winners is definitely worth it. Basic supplies, trade goods/glade event completion items/complex food, services, and other game winners.
12 is the number I usually have at the very start... if I don't take extra people I find that one falls behind too much in terms of development. We start with 3 woodcutter camps and should be cutting right away to the nearest dangerous glade (decline the 1st year cornerstone for 10 amber so that we can open... unless it's something REALLY strong). By the end of year 1 we should be on our 2nd base (2nd hearth + its warehouse in the newly-cleared dangerous glade making its way to a 2nd encampment at 16 villagers). By the end of year 2, ideally on our 3rd base with close to 24 people. So we will have +6 global resolve on year 3 from 3 encampments where we will have used all our wildfire essences and deal with the automatic 10-cyst blightstorm instead. If I delay everything by 1 year then that means it's a game where I am struggling (late finish maybe year 8-9).
4th base I might do if the situation allows but usually I stay on 3.
Actually in the early years 1-2 one should not be attempting to produce anything but building materials/packs of provisions (if you get excess food) or whatever packs the Queen wants and focus on collecting and clearing dangerous glades for hearth space in the future. I pretty much only have the crude workstation and makeshift post always fully manned, and no other buildings (except lumber mill, brickyard, or whatever is better). These items will pretty much always be used in any scenario so we don't waste any production.
Things like clothes, service items, and complex foods (except maybe jerky--and even then this is a bad idea if you don't have coal/sea marrow for fuel as it competes for wood with other things) require too long a production chain for the early pop count. Even if one needs tea/oil/incense/scroll/resin for a glade for example, one should be looking to buy it or open a cache for it rather than produce it early on.
Usually I build second hearth when I can 14+8
I disagree on the point to not use manpower for complex food as food is most of the time low in the early stages of a settlement, so I like not only to use jerky but if I get the necessary building in the first three blueprints I also use skewers (only needs two different food sources, most of the time you have spare materials from embarkation) and porridge (if you have a geyser) can multiply your resources. As always all of this depends on my population and what I can expect to find in the given map.
I fully agree on the "don't produce stuff you are not guaranteed to need, buy it or get it from caches" idea.
These items are usually annoying to produce. Or only late game have enough manpower to produce this "fast enough" for everyone to use.
I'm not sure why people are saying they need to conserve early food--do people not mass pack their caravans with several +28 and +42 food which are 1-2 points each? I guess if one takes the plantation blueprint for 4-6 points then it's an issue (but I prefer to just buy it from Zhorg or Sahilda... in that case, even taking 28 amber is usually cheaper)
I am currently at P10, I usually chose embark with 1 of the delivery line.
It help me immersely with many scenarios, such as certain glade event. And when I got the manpower/resource to make service building. This front-loaded with a very good duration of reputation generation.
Balance point I also choose 42/28 food if they cost 1 point, or amber or new villager.
I cannot bear to use 0 star recipe to craft provision unless overflowing with food.
This make me really love the cornerstone get free provision per arriving new villager.