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Never make military pact with factions you want to confederate. I don't even make defensive pacts. Just non-aggression, trade and military access is enough.
Easiest way to confederate is to check each turn, if there's a change in power ranking. Usually, if an AI army is destroyed, that faction's ranking drops and the difference in ranks helps in getting that confederation.
Basically, it all amounts to diplomacy bonuses.
The more money you pay them to boost reputation, the more armies they build. The more fights they get into. The more fights they get into, the higher level they get, the more points they put into things that you would probably be against - 20 points into blue, red line? Picking economy traits Vs. damage traits which you can't revert. (Tyrion's 20% Wpn Strength Vs. Tyrion's 5% trade boost)
Also, if you're into farming traits, the longer they level, the more crap traits they pick up. Ya, +10 leadership when fighting Tomb Kings. Just what I needed.
These days, I'm so lazy, I just use C Trait Manager Mod to give Lords with +10 reputation, then dismiss them. And Easier Confederation Mod so once they hit 150+ reputation, if you have the strength level, instant confederation.
Hard to have a lvl7 Tyrion Confederate with Mods, and go back to Vanilla, and have him Confederate at lvl25.
Oh, and let's not forget the other good stuff. Sometimes in the game, you reach a certain turn, some people just stop offering confederation. Hit Turn 50? No more Confederations for you!
Weird algorytyhyms.
Lately, I try to see how fast I can get a Confederation going, with Save Friendly Mods. Lizardman can be rough because that's 7 Legendary Lord's you have to confederate.
Also giving them Gold sounds counterproductive as that strenghtens them.
Since positive Relation is important also I usually just let them pay me for declaring war against their Enemies but then dont activly defent them from the attacks (again they only confederate when they feel they get wiped otherwise)
Honestly the fact Confederation is so stupidly hard to achieve is why I downloaded a Mod that lets you confederate with defeated Fractions upon their Death. You may want to look into it aswell
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2854819509
yeah sure everyone english is ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ perfect right ?
like i say with other things i always do military alliances becouse i can then just bring the AI into a war they cant win and they lose everything with that it makes convediration way more easyer to my self
but hey you do you and call everyone ♥♥♥♥ that dus not 100% talk english
The situation has always been that the AI factors in its allies and their balance of power when deciding if its in an unwinnable situation, because the way the AI plays is that it expects you to help them once you're allied... because that's the point of being an ally, you work together as a team to accomplish goals... at least in a normal world. Since people who play don't really care about the AI and only care about themselves (since that's the point of a single player game), allying a faction tends to make it more difficult in that it skews their reasoning for wanting to confederate in the first place. It's not that it can't be done, and the bonus relations does help, but it doesn't help so much that it's noticeable and even recommended since you get the same results much easier without allying them. Fighting their enemies is more than enough to raise their relations and increase the chance of confederating by itself, since ultimately, all they care about is the end of the factions they don't like.
Because confirmation bias is a thing.
Each further agreement sets the timer back a bit and it takes longer. Sometimes I give a conquered city as a gift to speed things up a bit, and after the confedaracy/vassalage the gifts are automatically returned, or you can take everything back from the vassal.
Ideally, the Confederation target is being attacked by a common enemy, so that I can attack this enemy elsewhere. This speeds up the process enormously, as long as I take care not to enter the ground of my future confederated faction.