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And be stronger then them .
I would spam influence on him until he yields :D OR install the defeat LL mod and get him if he dies.
Breaking alliances is probably not the best idea though, it will obliterate your relations with them. I have usually found successes confederating when the ally/friendly faction was on the verge of defeat.
If you really dislike mods, or at least mods for this playthrough, then doing what Sauske and Amph suggests are your best bet. Try to isolate them as best as you can so they are desperate or try to lure them into wars they can't win to weaken them, all while using the elven influence system to help your odds.
Edit: Never knew about that Daldora, neat info, thanks for sharing! Makes a bit of sense now why sometimes confederation status will be impossible one turn, then favored the next with no change in territory or leaders.
best accomplished by taking every settlement around them and requesting they leave your territory if they try to escape their 'prison' after a while when you are sure they havent taken anything try then
Yeah, I have no idea why CA made him that way. He simultaneously has "Diplomatic" (engages in diplomacy a lot) and "Aloof" (doesn't engage in diplomacy at all). It's dumb.
Some of the major factors that will increase the likelihood of confederation:
-Has the faction been able to capture territory recently
-Does the player have 150 relations with the faction
-Is the player stronger than the faction
-Is the player defensive/military allies
-Is the faction's legendary lord dead
-Is the faction in a lot of wars. If they are near confederation you can get a military alliance and drag them into new wars, or trade them a settlement in exchange for joining a bunch of active ones. The latter option may initially reduce likelihood due to the faction acquiring territory, but depending on the threat level of the wars, can also push them over the edge immediately.
As already mentioned, borrowing a strong army from a faction will cause it to count towards your faction strength instead.