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A 40K game in epic style would be perfectly doable.
Look at WH 1-3. We have monstrous units, flying units, both are in 40K.
Instead of recruiting a small platoon of men, you would be recruiting regiments.
Instead of a single large unit, recruit a squadron of tanks.
Then we have Titan sized units, single units that are massive.
The setting would be similar to the Soul Storm game, a multiple planetary system, or multiple systems for a 40K game.
There could easily be the possibility of having large planetary defence weapons, or planetary bombardments, in a style similar to ship bombardments in Shogun 2 ROTS.
We also have the Battle Fleet Gothic that can show space battles can be done.
So yes the game can be done,
But with the way CA put out games these days, I am not confident that they would do a good job.
Nope, because infantry combat in 40k is way more fluent and interactive with the surrounding terrain. If they released 40k with the same stupid engine they have now, with the same buggy AI, garbage tier individual movement and collision problems, the game would be instantly dead on arrival.
If they intend to put out a game with more modern combat than WH, they have no other choice than to first write a completely new engine for it.
That's where you are underestimating 40k hard. Sure, most things are in place already, but the core of 40k is still infantry. You recruit a whole regiment? Yes. But how does the regiment move? Some hit the ground, individual soldiers hide in explosion craters, some dig holes, others use stones, debris and trees as cover. Also, they won't just stand around, they will crouch, go prone, jump, scale buildings, etc. The cover needs to also be completely destructible (a huge difference compared to TW games until now). When a titan shoots into some building ruins, there won't be any ruins left after he is done, for obvious reasons. The soldier AI will hav to adapt to those changes on the spot. Same with tanks, etc. Motorised, mechanised and walker equipment also uses terrain actively.
Furthermore, a lot of specialist soldiers of the regiment will also have specialist weapons, that also behave differently. Some will have heavy ordnance, some just a lasgun and a grenade. All intermixed and not separated the way it is in WHFB. Added on top of it all, there is also melee. It's a LOT more chaotic than WHFB melee, with soldiers shooting point blank, punching, diving each other to the ground, all at the same time, with no formation but in a full chaotic line-less mess.
Due to all the aforementioned reasons, a 40k TW would look less than WHTW, but will have to look and play more like Steel Division 2 coupled with Dawn of War. That's simply not something the current TW engine can manage without looking like a cheap meme and cash grab.
It is a deliberately over the top expression of combat that, especially due to it's mix of ranged AND close combat, has far more in common with the madness of early firearms use (as seen in TW Napolean, TW Empire, TW Shogun II, TW WH etc etc) than it does with the type of combat seen in World War II.
Just imagine your Empire handgunners are Space Marines etc, (especially if you could give them the skirmish formation from TW Empire) and imagine your Steam Tanks are Land Raiders and boom, you're already playing TW Warhammer 40k.
And a single world setting is totally appropriate too. There is a long and distinguished history of game settings being on a 'single World isolated by warp-storms' etc etc
I'm sure there's much cleverer things they could do too, but even at it's most basic and cynical level I'd buy that shizz.
Take. My. Money.
I agree that the next game would be 2025 earliest, more likely 2026. But if they were to build their own engine, it has to be already in development. No way they start from scratch now. I think it's more likely they use Unreal 5 which they have experience with from Hyenas. Much shorter time frame to dev the necessary tools to use Unreal.
Like others, I'm less convinced by CA's ability to innovate enough to pull it off to huge acclaim. I can see them cobbling together a Gladius type multisided single planet cage fight with gorgeous looking, if tactically dull, real time battles. It's breaking out from that which would be interesting to me.
GW made an insane amount of money with the TWW series they'd probably push for a 40k game
Not that anyone asked for any of them.
Sega should still have a license for an RTS, which was the one THQ initially had. My guess would be it's as broad as the one Slitherine have used for TB games (eg Sanctus Reach and then Battlesector, and the license stayed with the publisher as the studio moved on). Though, like you say, even if that's so the catch will be on just what it covers with the salami slicing of the IP across different publishers (Focus seem to have a real grab bag across GW's IP).
The only question is could they do it justice.
Well it's 2-3 DLC per year, so maybe 75Eur/Dollars per year, you don't have to save all that much. Unless you plan to buy it in 2040 when it will fully end it's development cycle.