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So my advice is to keep Wissenland independent for as long as possible, because she's your only buffer against the madness happening in the Badlands to the south, where orcs and rats usually wipe out the dwarves fairly early.
Yeah, that's the opportunity cost that I am struggling with. So how do YOU choose? ;)
Yeah, I noticed only Nordland really survives of the non-Legendary factions in the Empire proper. And even Nordland needed some breaks going their way, and my help. And thanks for the advice.
P.S. Indeed, that is the surprise of WH3. Even with the latest DLC, Karaz-A-Karak simply cannot survive.
I don't like confederating her early. Reason is, that she is usually quite powerful and puts up a good fight against Sylvania, so you don't have to bother rushing there too much. Furthermore, the AI upgrades the settlements quite well, so you don't have to invest anything and yet get everything for free later.
Yeah, I guess that's the consensus so far. It was my initial inclination as well.
That begs the next question: If you leave Vlad to Elspeth for a bit, where do you go after you consolidate Reikland and whip Khazrak? Go after Festus? Or perhaps Kemmler? (In my experience, he tends to go for Marienburg very early these days.)
I suggest Festus. He doesn't usually expand super fast, but leaving an enemy alive in the middle of the empire is a recipe for trouble later on. Once you start seeing aggression from Wulfric, Throgg, Azagh etc. you don't want to have to deal with fights inside your borders as well. The exception here is Drycha. Unless you're weak, she will usually leave you alone and fight either Festus, Azagh or even Vlad, which is great news for you.
You can always wipe her out later, or just free up a single settlement so you can confederate Ostland if you're trying to get all the Elector Pokemons.
Vlad, Grom or Kemmler are also good early targets, as VC and GS are easy to dismantle while they're weak, but can become massive threats later on. I usually go for Festus because if you don't, his expansion will start to tank your Authority level pretty hard and make everything much harder as you start to lose growth, control and income.
I always blitz Marienburg after getting Reikland. It feels like the most "natural" expansion path. This is especially important because unless you get the border fortress from Marienburg, you will later most likely get undead for neighbours. Therefore, I prefer to have my borders secured in one direction before commiting to another.
That said, in one campaign I simply took over Bretonnia first instead of bothering with Festus and Vlad and only used a lone lord to give the razed settlements back to Boris and Nordland again and again. This approach depends heavily on what the Beastmen though. A raised herdstone and a workable Beastmen stack in Middenheim is pretty much a death sentence for Boris, unless you commit a force just strong enough to raze it and then disband the army again.
Westward expansion is actually very viable. Empire gets huge benefits from owning a lot of harbors and Bretonnia is probably the weakest faction in the early stages of the campaign (and therefore expansion is a breeze), while Tilea and Estalia are potentially extremely rich provinces. It does require some balancing with your Empire security though, so it's hard to do without leaving a dedicated security half-stack in the Empire. Once taken over, the territory also tends to be quite safe, since it's Ulthuan to the west and Bretonnian crusaders to the south. If you manage to broker an alliance with some Wood Elves, they will basically provide free security in case Belakor decides to pay a visit. Especially now with Elspeth, you can easily postpone the "cleansing" of Empire territory by 20 or 30 turns and do some land grab in the west instead, since the fight between Festus, Ice Court, Drycha, Vlad, Azhag and Ungrim and between them all the minor imperial factions will usually end up in a weird stalemate even if you decide to not intervene directly with Reikland. Khazrak is pretty much the only really "uncertain" factor. Sometimes the AI will suicide the stack and then do literally nothing in spite of having a herdstone left. Sometimes it will actually become a sustantial threat, that needs to be dealt with.
I wish old Boris was better and the other EC's would actually team up against some of the early threats , the new system means it is not such a panic to save the empire to avoid crippling growth, I focus on taking marienburg then dealing with the orcs and beastmen near by, then festus , by which time vald and the wood elves have run rampage in the east, but with a strong Elspeth in the south and a early alliance with her you get her fighting without the penalty of paying for her army and hopefully some of the special upgraded units later when you confederate her.