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I should be losing this right? It definitely feels like it
It can be very forgiving sometimes & sometimes not. Depends. It is very forgiving against ex vampires that field lots of cannon-fodder units.
But at a point your replenishment can keep track with the AR result and as such it just becomes a lazy but a lot faster way to play the campaign.
Doesnt look that bad, certainly closer than something than this (googled image but I have come across it myself many times);
https://preview.redd.it/wv55j1jgz1l91.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=7013ef6500c01c3ae2ee0ebad420c9771aaf8d4b
In yours there looks like a chance, in this linked image there is no way you would even do any damage and yet in auto those blokes will get hundreds of kills each
Depending on the faction you are playing it can be overly forgiving or the opposite. Classic example are heavy melee factions eg WoC, Khorne that tend to perform unrealistically well in auto-resolve. Factions that rely on magic and/or mobility tend to perform worse, classic example there are vampires.
I tend to recommend this mod over and over for restricting AR in battles that are close. It changes how you play the game, but it does make campaigns longer on average.
https://steamcommunity.com/sharedfiles/filedetails/?id=2854146839
Eagles to artillery, outrange them with archers, infantry in forest and kite with Alastar as much as possible.
You can also cheese quite easily by using the eagle to empty their ammo.
The big things you have to look at in that battle for danger are the hand cannons and the mortars. If you need to, you can use one unit of spears at long range to separate the mortars from the rest.
Hit them with magic or arrows a few times to get them to charge, make sure they only have line of sight on the eagles, alastor, and the sacrificial bait. The artillery will stop and shoot while everything else advances. Once everything else is far enough, send the eagles. It'll be too late to save the mortars. The Eagles might be able to snipe noctilus if you can separate him out, but be careful about that, he's a halberd unit.
Shoot the hulks with your archers (easy, high value targets that otherwise specialize in wrecking infantry). Your rangers can absolutely slaughter any vampire coast infantry they get into melee with.
Make sure that every shot counts, and every life lost was for a clear gain (like making sure the mortars can't shoot the rest of the army). Also, make sure that once the archers are visible, they're heavily guarded by spears, because Scurvy Dogs will end them in moments otherwise.
I would say practice and don't be afraid to SLOW down the battle if you start feeling overwhelmed.
for example when i was playing necromancer in coop my friend auto resolved pretty much all of his dwarf army encounters and i wanted him to play them but he was like meh, and for me i had pretty much 95% fail rate in auto resolve but the victories i would pull out were massive i lost almost nothing and what i did lose would come back from the necromancy restoration after battle haha it was pretty one sided in my favor but auto resolve disagreed.