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I mean, it may not work, but in my experiences they're pretty easy to bait.
Your army may be smaller than their single stack, but they have to beat your army + whatever garrison of the town they're trying to take. Usually results in them waiting until they have overwhelming force. It's kind of just the nature of the AI that has to rely on auto resolve, since even 60-40 odds is a lot of losses for them.
Worst case was with Kairos against Oxyotl. forget the settlement names but he had 2 almost full armies on settlements to north & south of each other and was still waiting until he had a 3rd before moving against me with 1 army that was hiding. It's better than just sending weak stacks to their deaths but it feels like it's happening too frequently. Getting tired of having to ambush several armies in a row