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I think what you are missing is the mood of your villagers; with the heir update recently, they changed it so that their mood also affects their production rate. I don't have the exact numbers but that is also a factor now.
Mood of workers affects the speed of production (from Mood: -100% = Production speed: -20%, to Mood: 100% = Production speed: +20%).
Mood of workers affects the speed of trading (from Mood: -100% = Trading speed: -20%, to Mood: 100% = Trading speed: +20%).
Mood of workers affects the speed of buildings repairing (from Mood: -100% = Repairing speed: -20%, to Mood: 100% = Repairing speed: +20%).
Maybe from this you can calculate what extra bonus you get from the mood of your specific villager? I doubt it'll be a nice rounded number so that's probably why you get to 22.48?
Glad you managed to get the calculation right. Good luck in your spreadsheet; it should be possible to get a formula out of that.
Maximum + 20% Production
Rule of three:
20/200*124 = 12.4
22.48/112.4*100=20
I like even numbers.
Add it to the suggestion list for the devs, you never know!