Lina's Battle Blaze Guide (BattlePass 2016's Game)

Guide of how to get the most points/levels on the Lina's Battle Blaze Game, for International BattlePass 2016 owners.

UPDATE 28/May

As you can saw when the community accomplished the Timbersaw Tree's Challenge, the board has changed in the "24000 Battle Points" reward (NOTE: If you played Lina's Blaze on day 1, the board was different than now; I don't know when they changed it, because you can only saw it again when the challenge was complete).

And, as you can see in the following video (not mine), this guy hit two times the pin at the side of "24000", and the ball goes to the side:

Looks like Valve made the 24000 reward impossible to reach now (because of the diagonal pins), and the maximum reward is 6000.

If this is true, the calculations are different now, and will be updated in the next hours.

EDIT: We are starting to think that the game is seriously rigged, and the higher rewards are impossible or has a very low probability (below probability fairness) to be earned. If this is the case, there is no sense to update the guide.

Summary (for those who are in a hurry!)

If you want to know the justification, follow the guide:

What is "Lina's Battle Blaze"?

Lina's Battle Blaze is a game for International BattlePass 2016 owners.

The game is very simple: you choose one of the 6 slots on the top of the screen, and a fireball is dropped. The fireball cascade down through the pins, and is deposited in one of the 7 possible rewards: 100, 500, 750, 1000, 3000, 6000 or 24000 Battle Points.

(The video is not mine)

Even when no hability is required to play the game (the player only chooses the slots); there are different probabilities of getting different rewards, related to which slot you choose**

**NOTE: We are supposing that the game is (probabilisticaly speaking) realistic.
It may be possible that the game may be programmed to force some not realistic results (rigged game); this guide is useful if Valve programmed the game to be fair.

Probability Explanation

The probability behind the game is very simple: each time the ball hit a pin, it has 50% chance of going left and 50% chance of going right:

Of course, the second time the ball hit a pin, it is already carrying the 50% off, and the chance becomes 50%*50% (that is why you see 25% on the draw).

It is normal, for this kind of game, to create something called a "gaussian belt" in the bottom, but here, we have "walls" that make the ball to come again to the center of the board:


We have to take into account those walls to create the table of the next section:

Table of Probability

The table (click to full size view) made in Excel, try to resemble the real game format:
On the top, you can see the slots (slot 1,2,3,4,5,6), in the middle you have the pins, and in the bottom, the rewards and the probability to get them.

Below the "Slot 1" you can see "100%": It means that the ball will fall from there, and give us the probability of getting each reward.

If you choose the Slot 1, then:
Probability of getting 100 Battle Points = 0,366%
500 = 19,638%
750 = 5,557%
1000 = 24,438%
3000 = 34,912%
6000 = 1,758%
24000 = 13,330%

Because there are different values, we have to calculate the real winning for each reward (example: it is better to have 34,912% chance of getting 3000 points, than 1,758% of getting 6000).

That is why we have to create a new table with that data:

As you can see:
The average reward for the slot 1 is: 4737 Battle points.
That means, if you drop 100 FIreballs, you will get 473700 BattlePoints (probabilistically speaking, of course).
If you drop 100 Fireballs: 35 balls will fall on the 3000 reward
If you drop 100 Fireballs: 13 balls will fall on the 24000 reward

Ok? Let's create a Table for each Slot:

Tables for each slot

Final Table and Analisis

And the final data is:

ANALISIS:

FOR EVERYBODY!:

From best to worst:
Slot 4: 6628 BattlePoints Average Reward, and a 20,0% chance of hitting the 24000 Reward
Slot 3: 6395 BattlePoints Average Reward, and a 20,0% chance of hitting the 24000 Reward
Slot 5: 6160 BattlePoints Average Reward, and a 16,6% chance of hitting the 24000 Reward
Slot 6: 5607 BattlePoints Average Reward, and a 13,3% chance of hitting the 24000 Reward
Slot 2: 5523 BattlePoints Average Reward, and a 16,6% chance of hitting the 24000 Reward
Slot 1: 4737 BattlePoints Average Reward, and a 13,3% chance of hitting the 24000 Reward

Because the slot 4 give us the most Average reward (6623) AND it has the highest chance of hitting the 24000 Battle Points Reward, it is undoubtedly, the BEST

FOR YOUTUBERS/TWITCHERS/STREAMERS:

If a player wants to get the 2 highest rewards (24000 and 6000), and don't care about the anything else (not recommended), then:

Slot 6: 48,2% chance of hitting the 24000 OR 6000 Reward (almost 50%!)
Slot 5: 45,4% chance of hitting the 24000 OR 6000 Reward
Slot 4: 39,4% chance of hitting the 24000 OR 6000 Reward
Slot 3: 30,5% chance of hitting the 24000 OR 6000 Reward
Slot 2: 21,1% chance of hitting the 24000 OR 6000 Reward
Slot 1: 15,0% chance of hitting the 24000 OR 6000 Reward

So..:

Next time you play Lina's game, the best slot to choose is the number 4, and you will get (at long term) the most points.
If you are a YouTuber/Twitcher and you want to impress your audience, go for the slot number 6, and you will get the highest chance of getting either 24000 or 6000.

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Cya and Good gaming!

[Xylber]

No idea, some people say you can unlock them by hitting them. Anyway, on YouTube a guy hit the golden blocks and nothing.

[re]

how to get the 24k openend ?

[Xylber]

Thanks to everybody for your comments, I'm surprised to see 5 stars and 198 ratings, and 19,724 visitors here. It took my a couple of hours to do it, but it worth the time (even when the final result is not what we all expected: a probabilistic fair game). And have a nice day guys and gals!

[Ambition]

nice!

[Tim Bergling]

you got this mate, i was trying to do the same but you already did it good job ;D

[neonblitz]

I got the 24k From This! :D

[Aspry7]

i did 4 6 4 and ended up getting 750, 100 and 500. bullshit

[Rz]

@TeaBAGMASTER : U Sure? How can do that?

[astraltoast]

Thanks i got 24000 :D

[unqunq]

@Xylber I still appriciate you going throught the time to create this. I understand the time it must have taken. Thanks for doing it m8 :)