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The same thing happened with the 'Red Sea' and 'Red Sea Hills' in a different countries mission-tree, but I can't remember which country (I think it was an Italian country though).
adding NOT = { has_reform = plantagenet_monarchy }
NOT = { has_reform = tudor_monarchy }
NOT = { has_reform = UKS_angevin_monarchy_reform }
resolves the issue and the disaster fires as intended.
Its a stupid question, but Im having some issues with it in my mod pack and Im not sure if this mod is causing it, I just don't have the restore the roman empire decision after forming italy :(