Token Spin Rarity Odds

Opened 100 Tokens to look at the odds of receiving common, rare, supreme, legendary cards and whether there is a weighting towards certain rarities.

Introduction

Some people say the spins are unfair, it's weighted, whenever you see a legendary you get close but never really get one, etc.. So I looked at 200 Token Spins to see if I can see any sort of weighting of the system and to actually see how often the different rarities show up. I am not just looking at all the Common, Rare, Supreme, Legendary cards I receive, but also those that show up in the Spin(Always 8 cards in a spin), we would expect to get 1/8 of the rarities that we see(given no weight), just as we get 100 cards out of 800.

UPDATES
11/03/207
- Added 100 more Tokens. Got a lot more Supremes and a lot less Legendaries on the second Batch. Due to the small sample size that could have easily happened by chance rather than to assume they lowered the odds.
- Added TLDR
- Added Average Shards per Token as well as Gold value of Shards.

TLDR

Due to popular demand of a TLDR, here it goes:

- Tokens don't appear to be rigged, you get roughly what you should get(e.g. 1/8 of the rarity cards you see)
- 1 Token has roughly 47%/41%/9.5%/2.5% chance for a Common/Rare/Supreme/Legendary
- 1 Token is roughly worth 57 Shards(If the card is salvaged), so 1 Shard is roughly worth 18 Gold.

Occurences

All Spins (n=200)

Seen:
Common: 787
Rare: 638
Supreme: 139
Legendary: 36

Received:
Common: 94
Rare: 82
Supreme: 19
Legendary: 5

Special Spins (n=40)

Seen:
Common:
Rare: 293
Supreme: 22
Legendary: 5

Received:
Common:
Rare: 37
Supreme: 2
Legendary: 1

Legendaries in Pack: 42, 43(S), 64, 79, 189

Weighting?

If there is no weigthing at place(e.g. rarities are no more or less likely than others to be received given an equal amount of occurence), one should receive one rarity for every 8 cards of the same rarity that has been seen. In other words once you have seen 8 Legendaries in the spins, you should get one(on average, there is no guarantee obviously). So here I am looking at the amount of the rarities that I have seen in spins, divide that by 8 to get my expectation(how many I should receive given no weight and average luck) and compare it to the amount I have received(if it differs significantly, it points towards either weighting or chance).

Expected = Seen/8

All Spins

Common:
Seen: 787
Expected: 98.375 Received: 94 Difference: -4.65%
Rare:
Seen: 638
Expected: 79.75 Received: 82 Difference: +2.74%
Supreme:
Seen: 139
Expected: 17.375 Received: 19 Difference: +8.75%
Legendary:
Seen: 36
Expected: 4.5 Received: 5 Difference: +10%

Special Spins

Rare:
Seen: 293
Expected: 36.625 Received: 37 Difference: +1.01%
Supreme:
Seen: 22
Expected: 2.75 Received: 2 Difference: -37.5%
Legendary:
Seen: 5
Expected: 0.625 Received: 1 Difference: +37.5%

The difference between what was expected and received is rather marginal and points towards a system of no weighting.

Outcome

So what does all of this mean? First of all, it means a larger sample size is needed to be more certain that there is no weighting, but I strongly believe that there is none. Furthermore the occurence for Supremes/Legendaries might be a bit off due to the small sample size as well.

Overall, based on this small batch of 200 Tokens worth of Data:

1 Token has a chance of:
47 % to give you a Common Card
41 % to give you a Rare Card
9.5% to give you a Supreme Card
2.5% to give you a Legendary Card.

That's an average of 56.625 Shards per Token when salvaging. In other words 1000 Gold = ~57 Shards. Or 1 Shard = ~18 Gold

The moral of the story is, if you see a couple of legendaries and you don't seem to get any, it's because you need to, ON AVERAGE, see 8 before you get one. You will see a legendary in roughly every 5th Token that you spin and each time you have a 1/8 chance to get it, that means you will spin roughly 40 times to actually receive one.

Batch 1

Date: April 2017

All Spins (n=100)

Seen:
Common: 398
Rare: 315
Supreme: 65
Legendary: 22

Received:
Common: 48
Rare: 43
Supreme: 5
Legendary: 4

Special Spins (n=20)

Seen:
Common:
Rare: 145
Supreme: 14
Legendary: 1

Received:
Common:
Rare: 19
Supreme:
Legendary: 1

Legendaries in Pack: 42, 43(S), 64, 79

Batch 2

Date: October 2017

All Spins (n=100)

Seen:
Common: 389
Rare: 323
Supreme: 74
Legendary: 14

Received:
Common: 46
Rare: 39
Supreme: 14
Legendary: 1

Special Spins (n=20)

Seen:
Common:
Rare: 148
Supreme: 8
Legendary: 4

Received:
Common:
Rare: 18
Supreme: 2
Legendary:

Legendaries in Pack: 89

Video(s) of the 200 Token Spins

100 Tokens from April
https://youtu.be/Zu7grd2ZTac?t=17s

100 Tokens from october
https://youtu.be/rzoTfuVqg6M?t=13s

These are the 200 spins I based everything on. It's not interesting to look at, it's just here for scientific integrity, which is why I don't use any of the self-reports from other people, which although interesting, could be completely made up.

[Du'bois,Sarah]

IMPO, you'd need something at least 3 batches of no less than 2000 tokens, to make it remotely close to anything I'd consider a "good Sample-Size"

[cocapelli]

i do not believe the spin is any more than a graphic... the game picks what card you are gonna get when you first open the token

[Fish]

yeah the odds in this game are pretty good

[Amezyarak PhD]

good work.

[PURE MALICE]

he said, last post answer i seen, something about 2.5 for the top end cards? THATS SO FKN MUCH BETTER THE MOST GAMES AVERAGE OF 0.03%(posted by game devs on chances them selfs) so, 4x -5x more likely to get a leg in this game then most every other game in existance

[JJsmall]

*32 token in average give you 1 legendary, if formula doesn't changes.

[Commander Tom]

Nice info and work but it's more like every 30 spins you get a legendary, not every 40 spins on average.

[Basan™]

Interesting read and I appreciate the effort but, if possible, I'd like to see an update to this Guide.
Particularely sicnce when I've stopped playing (around Valorian) release I already had noticed an increase upon the speed of P.Tokens spinning (which imho, it makes it even harder to be able to obtain something remotely to your liking if you can't see what the options are from the get go).

[Fiendix]

thank you for your work and mind :)

[Scarface]

I doubt the rarity of the extra cards you see have any relation with the card you actually get. It would add a lot more difficult to code the rarity chance. Even if you can influence the card you get depending on the time you click, I bet it just ignores and skips the "wrong rarities" for that roll as it makes it easier to get a consistent dropchance codewise.