CS:GO - Trade up contract profit

This guide will be about some research I did regarding profit in low-medium risk trade up contracts.

Introduction

INFO: I'm german, so if you see some typos in this following article, please consider that english is not my main language :D but please inform me about them im the comments.

Let's be honest here.
We all do want that Stat Trak | Karambit Fade Factory New, right?!
But it is too expensive, and we don't want to invest all our money into that.
But how do we get our dream skin/knife then?
The answer is: Profit with skins.
There are basically 4 ways to make profit:

1. Trading your skins for other skins which are worth more money. (100% safe unless market price is dropping drastically, but takes very long time to search for trades where you make profit)
   
2. Betting your skins on professional CS:GO-teams in the competetive scene, for example NiP, Virtus.pro, Fnatic, LDLC, Dignitas, etc.
   This involves a high risk, but can also be a fast and efficient way to maybe multiply your items value by 7
   
3. Selling your skins, and investing all your money into keys and crates. This CAN theoretically give you the chance to unbox 10 knives in a row, but in general, if you don't have extreme luck, this will only result in wasting your money for ♥♥♥♥♥♥ skins
   
4. Using your skins in trade up contracts, which also involve some risk, but you know and you can calculate on the odds of getting the specific skin in the specific condition you want in order to make profit.

Personally, I tried all of those 4 methods. I did some profit via trading, but it took me quite some time. I lost 20€ in skins by betting, but made 30€ profit, so I made 10€ profit in total.
Now for the unboxing part: I sold my spare TF2 items because I changed from TF2 to CS:GO, and bought some cases&keys from that. I opened 20 cases, which is an investment of around 45€. I DIDN'T GET ♥♥♥♥. Seriously, the best skin I got out of that was a USP-S | Caiman which got me 3€. Wow. And for the fourth method, trade up contracts, I informed myself a bit and came up with a list.
IMPORTANT: This is a low-medium risk trade up list (no crates included, because they include a too high risk in order to make profit imo), since I try to make profit with these trade up contracts, and I just want to inform you about this. Sure, you could go high-risk, for example 1 m4a1-s knight and 9 cheap pink skins, but the chance of getting a dragon lore would only be 10%, you would make extreme loss if you don't get one, and I just don't want to invest 100€ into CS:GO anyways.
If you read all of this, first off all thanks for your patience :D and then check out my little collection of possible trade up contract profit!

Possible Trade up contract profit list

İlk olarak http://counterstrike.wikia.com/wiki/Trade_Up_Contract tarafından gönderildi:

The trade up contract allows players to trade 10 normal or 10 StatTrak™ weapon skins of the same weapon grade from any collection for 1 new weapon skin of the next highest grade tier chosen randomly from one of the collections used. The process is confirmed and cannot be reverted after the signature has been signed.
With the Operation Bravo update, the Arms Deal Contract was renamed to Trade Up Contract and was expanded to allow weapons from any collection. Mixing weapons from different collections is also allowed, provided the skins used for the input are at the same tier. The resulting weapon skin will be randomly chosen from one of the input collections. The exact ratio used when mixing collections is not known, but it is assumed to be directly correlated to the amount input. For example, the more of a single collection used as input, the more likely the outcome will be from the same collection.

Okay, now for this part: Consider that the trade up contract follows certain rules which were explained above. I'll try to give some examples if you didn't understand the wiki part.

1. You can't get knives from trade up contracts
   
2. If you use 9 skins from Collection A and 1 skin from Colletion B, you have a 90% chance of getting a skin from Collection A and a 10% chance of getting a skin from Collection B
   
3. The exterior of the "crafted" skin is pre-determined by a float value formula, watch this video from the well-known TrilluXe if you want to find out more
   
4. If a collection has 2 or more skins of the same grade, from which you will get a weapon, the odds of each skin can be different. For example: You use 10 Sawed-Off | Copper (Dust Collection Mil-spec/"blue" skin) in a trade up contract. Now you can get either a Desert Eagle | Blaze, a Glock-18 | Brass or a P2000 | Scorpion. The one most beneficial would be the Desert Eagle | Blaze. And you have a 33% chance of getting it. Why? You have 3 skins from which the trade up contract choses a random one from. So: 33% for Skin A, 33% for Skin B, 33% for Skin C. Now about the exterior of the Desert Eagle | Blaze. The Desert Eagle | Blaze is worth 30€ in Factory New and worth 53€ in Minimal Wear. So we want to get the Minimal Wear one preferably.
   Now for some maths (meh, I hate maths): 1/3 chance of getting the Desert Eagle | Blaze which equals 33,3%. It's not like we always make a loss if we get something else. But this is what you have to remember when looking for profit via the trade up contract.
   By the way, if you don't know every collection (which you probably don't), just take a look at http://csgostash.com/
   This website informs you about every skin, the price of those skins, and all collections and cases in existance. I really recommend this site.
   And another very good website is https://csgo.exchange/#calculator/contract
   What you can do here is for example if you have a 50/50 chance to get either, let's say an AK-47 | Vulcan or an M4A4 | Desert Strike, this website pre-calculates the float value out of your 10 skins in your backpack with a formula and tells you which condition both of the skins would be if you end up getting either of them. So with this the only risk you still have to face is which skin you get, and you can even get 10 very low float value skins (float value ranges from 1 which equals scars everywhere, basically the worst possible look to 0.00000001 which would obviously be the best) and just get guaranteed factory new skins, whatever of the possible skins you get, as long as they can be a factory new skin (some skins like an AWP | Asiimov only range from BS (Battle Scarred) to FT (Field Tested)
   But enough of this theory, just take a look at my possible trade up contract profit list, you'll probably figure out why and how you make profit with all this knowledge. Good luck & have fun!
   
   1. alpha collection: fn famas spitfire
      
   2. assault collection: five seven candy apple
      
   3. cobblestone collection: industrial grade -> mil spec
      
   4. dust collection: awp snake camo fn?
      
   5. inferno collection: consumer grade to fn industrial grade?
      
   6. mirage collection: fn bulldozer
      
   7. nuke collection: fn skins
      
   8. office collection: fn skins
      
   9. (overpass collection: industrial grade -> mil spec)
      
   10. vertigo collection: preferably ak black laminate fn, p90 fn also profit
       
   11. chop shop collection: grey to fn deagle night (33% chance to get fn if float values are low)
   Another good list (made by http://steamcommunity.com/id/headshotger) which shows you ALL possible tradeup profits atm):
   http://tradeup.mattionline.de/
   

Outro

I hope you learned something about the trade up contract now, and I wish you best luck to make profit with it and finally get that skin you want so badly!
Tell me if you enjoyed this guide and if it helped you please, consider leaving a like, a comment or even a favor, I'd really appreciate it :)
But for now, see ya!
PS: Donations are appreciated but not necessary
Trade link: https://steamcommunity.com/tradeoffer/new/?partner=79577021&token=km8PsiyZ

[Jisoo]

thanks a lot dude

[ReVerZe]

are there a site where u can se whatever u put in for the trade up contract and what the odds are that u get? if i want to put in 3 mw cortex and lets say one devour shotgun one flashback m4a4s one leaded glass m4a4s one decimator m4a4s and some more? where can i see what the odds are what i could get?

[Hans Tygge]

I HAD UNDER 0.03 FLOAT DUDE WTF

[Hans Tygge]

the deagle contract was shitty
i got the deagle night and got so happy but it was fking minimal wear.. i lost 5 dollars because it didnt work... i had only FN

[k1NG]

Hey, can we trade secret weapons ?? Cause I bought 10 pp bizon judgement of anubis and i can't use it inb the trade up contract even while I waited for 1 week delay .. I don't get it

[nE kxtnascher]

Is there a way to speed up the contract?

[L4rs]

Yes it is. Depends on the float range of the possible outcome. if you need more information add me

[PUSSYDESTROYER]

Want to ask : if i trade 10 items in factory new, is it possible to get items in minimal wear or less

[Quack]

INFO: I'm german, so if you see some typos in this following article, please consider that english is not my main language :D but please inform me about them im the comments

in the comments instead of im the comments

[COMPLEX]

Can you give 1 new tradeup profit and what item to tradeup?