Why Mann Co. Supply Crate Key prices went up

The price of a Mann Co. Supply Crate Key is as unstable as Uranium-235. It skyrocketed from 2 ref. to around 8 ref. This is something the TF2 economy has to work on. How did the key get so expensive? And why is it still raising? How can we combat this? Read on to learn more!

Section 1: The Key and its uses

The Key is something we all want. It's a yellow, key-shaped item, used to open crates. These crates can contain strange weapons, hats, strange parts, miscellaneous items or even unusuals. a lot of people like these items, and also buy these keys to obtain these.

However, another group of people like the keys in ways of currency. This means that the key is very valuable and is thus useful for trades that include high-value items. High-value items are items that we consider expensive. Examples of expensive items are unusual hats, limited-edition weapons (Lugermorph) and certain stranges.

Section 2: Demand and Supply; a vicious cycle

Keys cannot be crafted and they do not randomly drop. There is literally no way in obtaining a key, apart from purchasing them. This means that the supply is dependent on the people that buy and distribute the keys. The supply, however, is, compared to the demand, very low. Keys have to be bought at $2,50 or €2,- or (insert your currency here).

The demand makes up the people that are willing to buy keys. Since the demand makes up almost everyone that plays TF2, it is, compared to the supply, very high. And we all know that a high demand and a comparatively low supply means that the people who have a key want a good amount of metal or other means to compensate for their key.

Section 3: Rise of Refined Metal and Drop of Value

Ever since some update VALVe had released, refined metal became craftable. Very useful indeed. However, given the number of Steam-accounts playing TF2 actively, the random drops containing weapons continued in their big number. Because of this, people had an excess of weapons, and the smelting system was very useful to get rid of these and to craft something valuable instead.

This was, and still is, used in big numbers. The amount of refined metal in the game rose considerably. Because the item was not limited to a certain number anymore, the value started to go down. People wanted more metal for what they had, simply because the metal was going down in value. This resulted in what we call inflation. There is simply too much currency, so the value goes down.

Initially, the keys were based on 2 ref. each. However, with the steep incease of available metal, and the ever-high demand of keys, the price rose. People saw them ging from 2 ref. to 4 ref. Personally, I experienced them going from 5 ref. to what it is now: 8.33~8.55 ref.

For further reference, I highly recommend this link, as this summarizes a huge deal:
http://backpack.tf/stats/Unique/Refined%20Metal/Tradable/Craftable
(NOTICE: It may occur that the site hasn't updated in a while. I solely use this site as an indicator.)

Section 4: Possible solutions

In order for the inflation to restore again, we need to get rid of the overload of metal, or start an action.

Getting rid of the overload:

How exactly can we decrease the number of refined metal in the game? There are several ways to do this:

Start an action for people to donate refined metal for a place with natural disasters.

If VALVe opens an entry port for people to donate metal to, they can donate the amount of metal into money to humanitarian organisations who are active in natural disaster areas. Remember Haïti? However, people are sometimes scumbags are do not donate their refined metal voluntarily. That's why VALVe can give a promotional item to the people who did, as a sign of appreciation.


Let people temporarily change refined metal to Steam Wallet funds.

This is a way in which both parties (the player and the company) can benefit. See, if people hand in their refined metal to VALVe, VALVe can then compensate for it by giving Steam Wallet funds to the donator. This means that people have more money to spend, and thus more money flows between the player and VALVe, effectively getting it back by (in-)game purchases or imposed taxes in the Community Market. Win-win, if you ask me.

Let people temporarily craft untradable Mann Co. Supply Crate Keys for 4~5 ref

This way, the refined metal is also used to craft keys. Of course, the amount of unusuals will increase, but not in a way refined metal did. This can decrease the amount of refined metal in the game, without further consequences. People will uncrate, resell and keep going. VALVe will not notice anything financially anomalous, since the keys are untradable.

Section 5: That's it!

That's it for now! I hope you guys liked reading my explanation and solution. Feel free to comment what you think about it. I also like people to write about this guide, how it can be improved and what actually doesn't work to decrease refined metal.

Thanks for reading, and leave a rating!

[COMPANION❤CUBE]

yo dudes it's fricking 45 refs

[lucius]

Well, its starting to drop now, its now 25 ref i think.