Campfire Survival Chance

What are the odds of surviving campfire upgrades?

Act 1 Odds

I went through Act 1 going through every campfire and seeing how many upgrades I could do before my cards were devoured. I wrote down how far I made it each time and after 1000 attempts these are the percentages and how many times I made it.

1st Upgrade: 100% 1000 Successful
2nd Upgrade: 82.6% 826 Successful
3rd Upgrade: 47.3% 473 Successful
4th Upgrade: 22.3% 223 Successful
5th Upgrade 9.5% 95 Successful

Kaycce's Mod Odds

When I first played Kaycce's Mod I quickly noticed that your odds are significantly lower than the base game. This was much faster for me to get the numbers for this considering I could just restart my run and most runs have a campfire at the start.

1st Upgrade 100% 1000 Successful
2nd Upgrade 39.6% 396 Successful

Conclusion

Now of course this isn't the most accurate way to figure it out. Considering I could just be lucky or unlucky. But anyway this is what I got.

[Bruxinth]

Thanks Taratino! Now who's the man who wants a Foot by a Fruit?

[thetundraterror]

Just so people know, the chance for a 2nd upgrade in Kaycce's Mod is 50% according to the game code.

In Act 1 story,
Second upgrade: 78.5%
Third upgrade: 55%
Fourth upgrade: 32.5%

[🎃 God of Halloween 🎃]

I have never had a campfire fail. Didn't know this was a thing.

[kanulles]

jm

[Tarantino]

Tip: If you aren't sure about a campfire, try buffing a card you dont care about twice. If you can buff it twice, then you go back to the main menu and open the game again. The campfire will still work twice, and you can pick a card you actually want to buff twice.

[The Drink]

I ended up getting a 2 9 ringworm in Kaycee's mod and i was absolutely shocked

[Moore]

A note: Ringworms and cards with the Instant Kill buff (idk name) like the adder have a higher chance to not be devoured in a campfire, but if eaten will give the campers a good time!

[Rouike]

Try entering the lottery my friend. Your odds are looking pretty good.

[A Pebble]

My Kacyee's Mod ringworm with 5 health and 4 power would like a word with you.

[Rowenoak]

Me: throws ringworm at fire... throws same ringworm at next fire... throws same ringworm at next fire... gives up puts mantis god ability on ringworm dominates all fights with the ringworm god
also me: What are the odds of this? Oh like should never happen like this.
Ringworm "Never tell me the odds."