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DMO Exercise, 2030

Although China’s economic growth began to slow in 2018, she continued her political, fiscal, economic, and military expansionism. In 2030 China is the world’s first economy, has a large and growing middle class population and consequently generates a higher demand for oil and natural gas. Relationships between Russia and China are thriving, underwritten by a strong energy trade. China depends on the trans-Siberian pipeline developed after negotiations with Russia on oil purchases were signed in 2014. Further economic ties were generated by a series of trade agreements that began in 2019.
尽管中国的经济增长在2018年后逐渐放缓，但是中国在军事、政治和经济上的发展并未停滞。2030年，中国成为世界第一经济体，拥有庞大且不断增长的中产阶级人口，并对石油和天然气等能源产生了更加强劲的需求。在强劲的能源贸易的支持下，俄罗斯与中国的关系蓬勃发展。中国2014年与俄罗斯签署石油采购协议后开发了跨西伯利亚管道。2019年开始的一系列贸易协定产生了进一步的经济联系。

Japan and the United States have strengthened their social, economic, and military ties in response to China’s and Russia’s growing influence. The Yokosuka naval facility has evolved to a joint JMSDF and United States Navy base with GEORGE WASHINGTON and its air wing, three United States DDGs, eight United States LCSs, and the Japanese fleet sharing the installation. In Sasebo, the United States Navy retains LHA-6, LPD-25 and LSD-52 and two LCS for mine clearance and protection.
伴随着中俄不断扩张的影响力，美日之间和合作也进一步深化。横须贺海军基地已经发展成为日本海上自卫队和美国海军的联合基地，“乔治·华盛顿”号及其航空联队、3艘美国DDG、8艘美国LCS和日本舰队共用该基地。在佐世保，美国海军保留了LHA-6, LPD-25和LSD-52和两艘LCS用于排雷和防卫。

The United States also established closer ties to Singapore, stationing eight LCSs, a squadron of P-8s and their shore support in the city-nation. In addition, the United States now maintains logistic support bases in Diego Garcia and pre-positioned expeditionary supplies in Subic, with joint agreements with the U.K. and Philippines respectively. These bases can act as “rapid build-up” support bases if the host country agrees. Additionally the Philippines have invited the United States Air Force to use Clark AFB as an expeditionary field. It is currently used in joint training exercises.
美国同样与新加坡建立的更加紧密的联系，在此部署了8艘LCS和一个中队的P-8及其支持设施。此外，美国目前在迭戈加西亚维持着后勤支持基地，在苏比克预先部署远征物资，分别与英国和菲律宾签署了联合协议。如果东道国同意，这些基地可以作为“快速建设”的支持基地。此外，菲律宾还邀请美国空军使用克拉克空军基地作为远征基地，它目前被用于联合训练。

In the spring of 2029, a Vietnamese fisher was rammed and sunk by a Chinese maritime security ship. The Chinese government justified the unfortunate action as an enthusiastic Captain defending China’s EEZ rights, although similar incidents have occurred over the past 20 years. Vietnam did not accept the rationale and vowed their fishing fleet, as well as their at sea drilling rigs, would henceforth be protected. Two weeks later a Chinese deep-sea exploration ship exploded without warning 100 nautical miles north of Natuna Besar.
2029年春，一艘越南渔船被中国海警船击沉，中方将这一行动解释为捍卫中国专属经济区的举措，尽管类似的时间过去20年内也发生过。越南方面并不接受这一解释，宣称其渔船和钻井平台之后都会受到保护。两周后，一艘中国深海勘探船纳土纳（Natuna Besar）以北约100海里处没有任何预警地发生了爆炸沉没。

China claimed either Vietnam, Indonesia or the Philippines were responsible. They mobilized their South China Seas fleet and demanded restoration from all three countries or they would “secure” their sea. One month later the Chinese sank a patrolling Vietnamese ship using a land-based surface to surface missile launched from Woody Island in the Paracels and moved a squadron of J-16s to Woody Island. They announced all traffic through the South China Sea would henceforth be subject to inspection and control by Chinese forces. They threatened to assume governorship of the island of Natuna Besar Indonesia to control the South China Sea’s southern approaches and in compensation for the attack on their deep sea exploration ship. The 1st Marine Brigade at Zhanjiang, Guangdong has embarked in the South China fleet’s amphibious flotilla. They can be underway in one day’s notice and intelligence indicates their objective is the occupation of Natuna Besar.
中国声称，越南、印度尼西亚和菲律宾至少一方应当对此负责。中国调动了南海舰队并要求三个国家重新回到原状，否则将采取措施“确保这一海域的安全”。一个月后，中国使用从永兴岛上发射的反舰导弹击沉了一艘越南巡逻船，并将一个中队的J-16部署至此。中国宣称南中国海所有的航运都必须接受中国的控制和检查，同时威胁将控制纳土纳岛以控制南中国海的南部航道。海军陆战队第一旅在广东湛江完成装载，情报显示，他们将在一天内登陆并占领目标岛屿。

During these events a Philippine helicopter fired on a PLAN Type 56 corvette conducing gunnery exercises four miles from Palawan Island. In response, China also threatened invasion of Palawan. Increased activity by the PLA’s 124th Amphibious Mechanized Infantry Division in Guangzhou district indicates they may be readying for this operation. Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines have requested UN support, specifically calling on the United States and Japan to act. In response, China has warned Japan and the United States any interference with their enforcement policy will lead to war, with the threat of nuclear escalation. To show their resolve, China mobilized the East Sea and South Sea fleets and sailed at least 50 submarines from both fleets, including two SSGN on what are assessed to be strategic deterrence patrols. They have declared a quarantine on all military logistics support (including oil) to Okinawa and have set up ships in blocking positions around the island to conduct MIO.
在这些事件中，一架菲律宾直升机向在距离巴拉望岛4英里处进行射击演习的一艘056型护卫舰开火。作为回应，中国也威胁要入侵巴拉望。中国人民解放军第124两栖机械化步兵师在广州地区的活跃表明他们可能已经为这次行动做好准备。印尼、越南和菲律宾要求联合国提供支持，特别呼吁美国和日本采取行动。作为回应，中国警告日本和美国，任何对其执行政策的干涉都将导致战争，并以核升级为威胁。中国为了表明自己的决心，动员了东海和南中国海舰队，包括两艘SSGN在内的大量潜艇开始执行战略威慑巡逻。他们已经宣布对所有向冲绳岛提供的军事后勤支持(包括石油)进行隔离，并在岛屿周围设置了舰艇进行海上拦截行动。

感谢@Cristianwj、@Sanyr1910、@威慑利剑在剧本制作过程中的支持