Odds of Yuna's Festivalist Sandals Using a Spell

Controlled experiment of Yuna's Sandals odds

Festivalist Dressphere

The Festivalist Dressphere is one of the two job classes exclusive to the JAPANESE/PAL and HD Remaster versions of Final Fantasy X-2, never before seen in the United States until 2013. This dressphere has unique abilities based on which character has it equipped, while a couple abilities are the same for Yuna, Rikku, and Paine, more than 3/4 of them are specific to each girl. It is the very first obtainable dressphere in the HD Remaster, and cannot be missed. In this guide, i'm explaining Yuna's version of Festivalist and the particular odds of each of her spells being randomly cast through using the Magic Sandals skills. As you may know, there is no such thing as true randomness in video games, everything has set odds or a range of numbers that "appear" random, but are not. To game developers, this may look random -> 3 8 6 1 0 8 4 1 3 9 <- However, the following values are also considered random -> 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 <- As you can see random doesn't actually mean random, there is a code generating a value, not based on random numerals, but a specific mathematical formula. Formulas aren't random. I've performed a controlled experiment with each and every Sandal ability, over 600 spell casts total, and documented every single outcome, and am confident I have narrowed down the percent chance for each spell procuring, within about 5% margin of error. I could have went for lower, but 1000 uses for each skill seemed redundant. From my experiment, I also concluded the Magic and Luck stats have no bearing on the odds of a higher level spell being cast.

For orientation purposes, these are the rules I followed:

-Yuna was at level 1 for the entire experiment. I adjusted her level to 1 using an editing tool.

-Yuna was equipped with Ragnarok, so her MP cost was 0, for convenience.

-I equipped Yuna with 2 Iron Dukes for the second run of the experiment to see if boosted stats affected the outcome. They DID NOT affect the odds whatsoever.

-The enemy I used as the test subject was the Ironside from the creature creator, for convenience.

-I hacked unlimited Hero Drinks for Paine to use on Ironside, so that I could make sure Yuna would not accidentally kill him.

-For the final phase of the experiment, I reset my game after every 100 spell casts, to ensure any RNG was ruled out.

On to the Odds

Level 1 Spell (Fire, Thunder, Blizzard, Water, Sleep, Silence) 45% - 50%

Level 2 Spell (Fira, Thundara, Blizzara, Watera, Berserk, Blind) 24% - 29%

Level 3 Spell (Firaga Thundaga, Blizzaga, Waterga, Break, Death) 15% - 19%

Level 4 Spell (Firaga 2, Thundaga 2, Blizzaga 2, Waterga 2, Flare, Ultima) 4% - 9%

I am confident the odds are within this range of numbers. 9% seems high for Ultima casting at first glance, but when you are in the same battle with the same invulnerable enemy for an hour on 4x speed, you may find that Ultima/Flare/Firaga2 will cast 2, 3 or even 4 times in a row! Those are some slim chances, and yet it happened. There is definitely a fixed chance.

I use this dressphere on my characters when I want a challenge, as it isn't that powerful without good accessories, but Yuna's version of Festivalist is by far the best. If you plan on using this job class, Yuna's may be your most comfortable option, capable of inflicting potent damage for very little cost, and even able to PENETRATE the reflect spell, rendering the enemy completely vulnerable to your magics.

[SirCrashtonII]

Very nice job! Good to see some accurate data on this.

[KaeEbonrai]

Awesome discovery! Thanks for putting in all the work to determine this, it improves our knowledge of the game and that can only ever be a good thing!

[Boltpen]

I was perplexed to read this... Does this actually keep you up at night sometimes? Serious question.