How many gems are there in Circulation

[Tzvi]

just trying to think and do some calculations to determine if gem value will go up

lets take Counter-Strike: Global Offensive for example

the game has 4 background and 11 emoticons
all give 100 gems and were priced at 0.03
if you go over the selling history for each item you could count how many been sold all together

then multiply that number by 100 to see how many gems went into circulation from all the items related to that game

from looking around it seems like the background each had like 40,000-50,000 sold
emoticons had less by what i see

overall i estimate total amount of CSGO items sold at 400,000 items x 100 gems for each item
40 million gems from CSGO alone ?

how many more games like CSGO are there? with 0.03 items which give 100 gems?
i think not too many there were a few widely popular games like that with those ratios

lets say 20 games ..that give 800 million gems on market


when the auction starts and people win games the gems will vanish and go out of circulation

how many games are there to bid on each round?
most games will go for 10k gems

but profile background will drop 1 mil

lets say there are 1000 games and each goes for 10,000 gems each round every 45 minutes
thats 10 million gems out of circulation each round

it means 80 round to reach 800 million gems

80 rounds x 45 minutes each = 3600 minutes = 60 hours
so all gems currently on market will go out within 60 hours ?

and with no more 0.03 items to get 100 gems from new gems wont be coming in...

with each wave gem value will be going up?

by the end you could buy games for fewer gems.....?

and gem sacks on market will have like few dollars value each?


just me thinking here




edit" so i just counted there are 15 pages on auction and 15 games on each page
for a total of 2010 games

thats double the figure from my calculation i did for 1000 games

also looking around each game on the list seem to be going for 20,000-40,000 gems

so again that figure is triple the one i calculated to

so if the result was gems going out of circulation fast and value going up
then with those new numbers it should happen even faster


edit"

official banner says there are 200,000 games total for grab in this event
2000 games with 100 copies each

if each of those will go for 10,000 the total amount of gems required is 2,000,000,000

seems to me the amount of gems on market wont reach that number
so gems value will go up

[Jerome]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. You were able to accout for gems that circulated through the community market. For the prediction about the auction though, we cannot provide a good estimate for gems that were generated by individuals who had tons of backgrounds and emoticons; and stacked them up for their own use (never circulated in the community market).

[CCUK | Glynbd]

I hope your right, I made 17k gems, wasted 2k on boosters and was saving 15k for the auction.
I can sell out my gems at one dollar profit right now (i got some 3p items early)
but im gonna hang in and see if i cant get a game or two.

[Lu]

I think at least 2 billion gems will go towards winning bids alone. There are 200k games up for grabs, with a likely average bid of 10k gems to win (that's being very conservative. Many games will go way beyond that tomorrow if they haven't done so already).

Significantly more than that will end up sitting in peoples inventories once the rounds have all ended. Everyone will end up using them on booster packs reducing the value of cards temporarily, so there's a good argument for selling all your gems just before the deadline when everyone is going crazy tomorrow.

[Tzvi]

โพสต์ดั้งเดิมโดย Marma:

I think at least 2 billion gems will go towards winning bids alone. There are 200k games up for grabs, with a likely average bid of 10k gems to win (that's being very conservative. Many games will go way beyond that tomorrow if they haven't done so already).

Significantly more than that will end up sitting in peoples inventories once the rounds have all ended.

damn i just wrote that after staring at the event banner
makes me think even more gem value will go up while event goes on

[Target Practice]

Gems will go up since the items used to make gems will become more expensive. Items that give 100 gems 4 days ago costs .03 cents per now they sell for .09 cents per. Keep in mind as the auctions progress people will start to run low on thier stockpiled gems so they will look to the ah to replenish them. Buying a bag of gems off the market is currently cheeper than buying 10 .09 cent items to convert. Some will also want that 3rd level badge and let their wallets do the talking to get it. Is it fair that money allows you to get more than those with less, no but thats life. Remember the golden rule: he who has the gold makes the rules.

If you are making booster packs it all depends on what cards you are making. A week ago Agarest 2, Cherry Tree p2, and many others all cost in the 2.50-3.50 dollar range. Yes currently they are all under a dollar but after the event they will go up in price meaning it is cheeper to make them now than to buy them later. Paying .70-.90 cents to either buy gems or the items needed to get gems is much perferable to paying 3.00 dollars. Just food for though.