Are we seeing the start of the 2nd video game crash?

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hypehype (禁止済) 2022年7月2日 13時20分

With high inflation, war, after effects of covid, lack of innovation and mobile games making more money with less work.

Do you feel we are starting to see the decline of PC/console video game sales/production?

https://www.thegamer.com/may-2022-worst-for-games-sales-pandemic/

Looking at steam summer sales, not many of the games peak my interest.

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46-60 / 91 のコメントを表示

fluxtorrent 2022年7月27日 23時35分

I ran over an xbox yesterday, definitely a video game crash

#46

Brian9824 2022年7月28日 3時56分

If anything with the current market its more likely to make video games more popular then ever. I mean are you going to pay $20 to go see a 2 hour movie in the theaters or pay $20 for a 40+ hour game?

Video games have always been one of the most cost efficient forms of recreation in terms of hours of entertainment vs the cost.

#47

Arkham99 2022年7月28日 8時07分

brian9824 の投稿を引用：
Video games have always been one of the most cost efficient forms of recreation in terms of hours of entertainment vs the cost

absolutely true... which makes the daily complaints about prices and entitlement all the more pathetic...:-)

#48

davidb11 2022年7月28日 8時09分

Eagle_of_Fire の投稿を引用：
hypehype の投稿を引用：
Are we seeing the start of the 2nd video game crash?
Excuse me? The start?

Why do you think we're in the middle of the crash? That doesn't make sense.

#49

Nx Machina 2022年7月28日 8時35分

Why decline?

I know i personally concentrated on my backlog of games rather than get new ones.

#50

Start_Running 2022年7月28日 9時37分

Nomster の投稿を引用：
What speaks for a crash, is the vast amount of new games (especially the Indie market) that gets shoveled our way. Now I do not think that the big studios will have to worry; they have their brand reputation and recognizable titles.

And yet that's exactly the opposite. A steady increase in supply is the sign of a corresponding level of demand.

Nomster の投稿を引用：
But new concepts become ever more rare and every month there are dozens if not hundreds of new Indie titles, often with very similar graphic styles, 80% of the time as some form of Metroidvania and 90% of them are also wholly forgettable, 5% are utter garbage.

Strange . I havent been seeing that many metroidvanias coming up. 4 or so a month maybe. and I'm all about metroidvanias.

As For games sharing similar styles and what not. Welcome to entertainment. It works in fad cycles. Always had been. Remember when everything was about Mascot Platformers, Then it was FIghting Games, And lets not forget the Grey-Brown-Tons Of Bloom MMS fad.

Nomster の投稿を引用：
No review site could possibly hope to cover them all and as such many will fly under the radar.
The Steam review system and the way they recommend similar titles is not helping either, since good games can get review bombed because of a political or other issue, that has nothing to do with the game.

And thats what happens in any growing developing market. After a while you find niche specializations. Sure no review site can hope to cover ALL so notne try and news flash at no point could they ever. They generally covered the ones that would appeal to their core readership. But now that gaming has become so broad and is basically a tapestry of niche markets now, it's harder to find that One game to rule them all. Review sites have to pick and choose and hope they choose right. Other smarter reviewers stick to reviewing a very specific genre, or style of game.

Nomster の投稿を引用：
Couple that with the fact that there are literal thousands of "early access" (read: unfinished, paid alpha tests) games available of which probably 95% will never get finished (at least not to the customers satisfaction) and we have the perfect makings of another crash.

Which means you know very little about what caused the North americanConsole Crash

Yeah. Thats what it was. A Crash in a very specific region of the world, that affected a very specific sectore of the gaming industry at the time. See. What people forget is that during that period PC gaming was fine and dandy. EHeck it grew during that period, as did the Arcade gaming industry.

The NA Console crash was a distributor issue. There was no issue wioth supply or demand. It was simply the retailers didn't really understand what they were dealing with. and they were treating it as a fad. Like Hula Hoops. for fidget spinners,.. Something you ride to the peak and cash out fast.

Nomster の投稿を引用：
Prepare for even more sequels, reboots, ports and remasters, because the studios behind them can have an idea how well they will sell beforehand and they don't rely on a very volatile market with lots of competition.

Yeah its almost as if they learned that New IP general doesn't do as well as Established IP. So if you;'re gonna sink millions into something what would you sink it in. An established franchaise, or something unproven?

This is why you generally find the innovation happening in the low stakes areas. SMall studios and indies.

Nomster の投稿を引用：
I can only buy a finite amount of "hey looks good and sounds good" titles, which are absolutely forgettable, without accidentally stumbling over a gem like The Messenger or Celeste, before I will just stop caring about the Indie flood and moving on.

So basically its that you're not very good at finding games you like. You take the apporach of blindly wandering through the aisle, picking up stuff at random. Your problem ssis you can't handle the abundance of options.

Nomster の投稿を引用：
Incidentally, the movie industry, especially the streaming platforms, is doing the same thing and flooding the market with forgettable shows and films, that are too numerous to review them all.

ANd this has always been the case. There've always been made for TV, Direct to VHS, C movies, for as long as movies have been around.

Many styudios made good bank specializing in those sorts.

Nomster の投稿を引用：
Even shows that are interesting to you or me, might not get watched enough and you end up with only one or two seasons of a cancelled show, where you will never know the whole story.

Yeah that's the way it's always been. The more money that goes into something the more it has to rake in to be seen as suitably profitable.

Nomster の投稿を引用：
That's again like Early Access xD Imagine reading a book one chapter at a time and then they stop writing the last third of it, because nobody was interested.

That has happened countless tim,es in literature. Many a series has been cut short simply because the previous iteration did not sell well enough and the publisher didn't see it worth paying a hefty advance for which meant the author , unless it was a passion project, is going to shift their attentiion to writing sonmething else that they can get paid more for.

The interesting thing is. That's a lot less likely to happen these days than it was 30, 20, even 10 years ago. Because the barriers to entry are lower its more about finding your market, and finding a way to supply that market oprofitably.

#51

nullable 2022年7月28日 9時58分

Topics like this really remind me how naive and self-centered people are. "I'm not interested in games any more, so the industry must be on the brink of catastrophe." Never mind of all the other millions of people and billions of dollars involved in a thriving industry.

Nothing OP mentions is a catastrophe. People play video games during recessions, and during inflation, and during wars, and despite illness. Not every year has to smash the year before. Explainable fluctuations aren't a catastrophe. And innovation... pheh, people have been whining about that for over 40 years. The way some people carry on you'd think they were still playing Pong, now featuring gradients.

最近の変更はnullableが行いました; 2022年7月28日 11時58分

#52

Aachen 2022年7月28日 10時07分

Snakub Plissken の投稿を引用：

.... The way some people carry on you'd think they were still playing Pong, now featuring gradients.

TBF, as popular as retro .... remains .... that might be an option (though of course I take your meaning

#53

Dr.Shadowds 🐉 2022年7月28日 10時13分

I could guess there danger for some companies/studios if they're lacking major sales to make up lost of spending money that putting them in bad debt, or getting close to such.

Finger cross that be Ubisoft so they lose rights to Rayman, and Tom Clancy games. CEO on Kool aid problems, and won't snap back to reality.

There rumor square Enix looking to sell to Sony. I can see them doing good by that.

Nintendo being Nintendo.

#54

Start_Running 2022年7月28日 10時32分

Snakub Plissken の投稿を引用：
Topics like this really remind me who naive and self-centered people are. "I'm not interested in games any more, so the industry must be on the brink of catastrophe." Never minds of all the other millions of people and billions of dollars.

It's like how doomsday prophets work. THe world isn't rthe way they want it to be ergo its a sign of the end times.

It really boils down to some people would rather see the world end rather than know the world will keep going after they're gone (ever notice they almost always predict it within their own life-times)
Or it can be even more basic and more about., resenting the fact that those that come after you will have it better than you ever did.

#55

davidb11 2022年7月28日 10時39分

No one likes the good news, they just love the bad news.
That's how people are, sadly.
They've always been like that.

It's why public execution fell out of favor.
Because people were getting a bit too excited about seeing people get their heads cut off, or hung, or is it hanged?
I'm not even joking, and that's the sad part.

Too many people just loved to see the spectacle.

最近の変更はdavidb11が行いました; 2022年7月28日 10時40分

#56

Start_Running 2022年7月28日 12時14分

davidb11 の投稿を引用：
It's why public execution fell out of favor.
Because people were getting a bit too excited about seeing people get their heads cut off, or hung, or is it hanged?
I'm not even joking, and that's the sad part.

No you aren't. It was easy for it to fall out of favour as well because film and television provided that cathartic outlet. Thats why we just love when the bad guy falls into the trash grinder.

That's why the shalsher film genre is just so popular.

#57

davidb11 2022年7月28日 12時46分

Yeah. THat's a good point too.

#58

crunchyfrog 2022年7月28日 16時15分

Nomster の投稿を引用：
What speaks for a crash, is the vast amount of new games (especially the Indie market) that gets shoveled our way. Now I do not think that the big studios will have to worry; they have their brand reputation and recognizable titles.

But new concepts become ever more rare and every month there are dozens if not hundreds of new Indie titles, often with very similar graphic styles, 80% of the time as some form of Metroidvania and 90% of them are also wholly forgettable, 5% are utter garbage.
No review site could possibly hope to cover them all and as such many will fly under the radar.
The Steam review system and the way they recommend similar titles is not helping either, since good games can get review bombed because of a political or other issue, that has nothing to do with the game.

Couple that with the fact that there are literal thousands of "early access" (read: unfinished, paid alpha tests) games available of which probably 95% will never get finished (at least not to the customers satisfaction) and we have the perfect makings of another crash.
Prepare for even more sequels, reboots, ports and remasters, because the studios behind them can have an idea how well they will sell beforehand and they don't rely on a very volatile market with lots of competition.

I can only buy a finite amount of "hey looks good and sounds good" titles, which are absolutely forgettable, without accidentally stumbling over a gem like The Messenger or Celeste, before I will just stop caring about the Indie flood and moving on.

Incidentally, the movie industry, especially the streaming platforms, is doing the same thing and flooding the market with forgettable shows and films, that are too numerous to review them all.
Even shows that are interesting to you or me, might not get watched enough and you end up with only one or two seasons of a cancelled show, where you will never know the whole story.
That's again like Early Access xD Imagine reading a book one chapter at a time and then they stop writing the last third of it, because nobody was interested.

Do note that you're cherry picking there.

Having been around since the dawn of video games, at NO point in time has there ever been a point where there wasn't SOME sort of hot property or ten tons of the same flavour of the month being copied.

At the start it was Pong, thenit was Space Invaders and shoot em upsd. Pac Man meant maze games, the beat em ups, then RPGs, then FPSes and so on and so on.

It does not mean it's a negative - it just means YOU don't like it.

If they didn't sell they wouldn't be made wou;d they?

#59